ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Florida1118]

Im still not trusting the models. They are from central mexico to pointing at Tampa. there are a couple models that have no clue from there crazy track forcast.

[bvigal]

I'm not picking a scenario until I see a low on the map...LOL.
Here is a satellite pic, only 15 minutes old!

[Florida1118]

they went from two blobs to two dying irregular cloud forms. Convection on the west one is dying on the circulation. To me it looks like they are coming closer together though.

[Rockin4NOLA]

they went from two blobs to two dying irregular cloud forms. Convection on the west one is dying on the circulation. To me it looks like they are coming closer together though.

My thoughts exactly...course I'm no expert on this stuff by any stretch of the imagination..but even I can tell it looks a whole lot worse than even 24 hours ago...course I say that and it's probably going to start organize itself again. It will be interesting to see if those two blobs reunite tho...talk about a wierd system eh?..

[Weatherfreak000]

Im still not trusting the models. They are from central mexico to pointing at Tampa. there are a couple models that have no clue from there crazy track forcast.

I don't believe there is any model support currently for a Tampa forecast.

[ronjon]

I think we all have to realize that this is a very slow moving wave that's expected to move even slower in 3 days. As of now, nothing to get excited about but things could change over the next 48 hrs. I'd say if nothing organizes within the next 1-2 days, a major model bust (except for the GFS ).

[tolakram]

Looking at the closeup shot cycloneye linked and this zoom 2 view: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

It appears there MAY be some additional turning marked with my arrows. Very hard to tell, but this is the same general area where turning was observed last night. This area should not experience southern inflow problems due to SA so if it's going to develop ...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Florida1118]

Im still not trusting the models. They are from central mexico to pointing at Tampa. there are a couple models that have no clue from there crazy track forcast.

I don't believe there is any model support currently for a Tampa forecast.

Model AEMI. not reliable though... but still a wide variety.

[HouTXmetro]

Looking at the closeup shot cycloneye linked and this zoom 2 view: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

It appears there MAY be some additional turning marked with my arrows. Very hard to tell, but this is the same general area where turning was observed last night. This area should not experience southern inflow problems due to SA so if it's going to develop ...

I think its an illusion

[I-wall]

Where is the upper level anti-cyclone? Is it still situated directly over 93L, or has it pulled away at all?

[HURAKAN]

Where is the upper level anti-cyclone? Is it still situated directly over 93L, or has it pulled away at all?

[Weatherfreak000]

When 93L finally reaches 80W I think we will see development.

[RainWind]

What happened to the remnants of 92L? Could that be the one of the vortices?

[HURAKAN]

The vorticity is now south of Jamaica

[HURAKAN]

12z



back again in the picture

[Ivanhater]

Still looks like crap, but then again we expected that until Friday right?

[Sanibel]

I think the Caribbean ate up the surface Low.

[Florida1118]

Anyone thinking back to 20%?

[HURAKAN]

I think the Caribbean ate up the surface Low.

There was never a surface low