ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[coreyl]

Are conditions favorable for development right now? It seems like we keep getting the "more conductive for development in the next 24-36 hrs" message from the NHC?

[HouTXmetro]

I don't want to read too much into an orange circle, but it looks like the NHC thinks that if an LLCC forms, it will be within that curving band of thunderstorms from the northeast to southeast of Jamaica.

Im going to say perhaps I see something around 75W 16N....maybe?

[Florida1118]

The NHC actually said conditions still appear conductive for development. So, yes conditions now should be favorable but will get even more when in the west Caribbean

[Aquawind]

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I'm going to disagree with 'looks like crap'. I believe the new center is / will form SW of Jamaica where things seem to be coming together and MIMIC-TPW shows the most turning. There's a lot of spin there, just not obvious yet on the surface. Storms currently developing over what I think will be the NE side of a new surface low. I'm wrong 95.8% of the time so ....

Lol, maybe I was a little harsh Good observations though...

Exactly Ivan..I agree entirely Mark! Although your % is way better than that..lol Clear LL rotation moving off the screen imo and it could reform NE but, I like(means nothing) the LL spin more to the west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[tolakram]

Well someone else also likes the Jamaica idea. Here's the floater from the Real Time Tropical Cyclone site: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL932010

1K floater: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 211315.GIF

I think it's important to note, though, that this convection seems to be waning and the MLC area is picking up again.

[HURAKAN]

There is certainly some rotation in that area

[Aquawind]

MLC's are so typical in slow develpment and have dominated this wave thus far. Hence 30%..It's going to take time and there is just to much convection not consolidating at all.. thumb twiddler alrighty..

[cycloneye]

Breaking News=18z position of Best Track is more north and west.

AL, 93, 2010062318, , BEST, 0, 166N, 786W, 25, 1010, WV

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[wx247]

I see the center of circulation... oh wait, that is the MLC... Wait no, there it is...

This has been crazy frustrating to follow.

[Aquawind]

Giggity.. Now will the adjust the sattelite westward? It still has a ways to go but, that is LL spin.

[tolakram]

So that is it ... at least for now.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

... and while all this has been going on shear is on the increase.

[BigA]

I definitely see some swirling low clouds to the SW of Jamaica. It looks to be getting a little better defined through the loop. If it can pop some convection near/over it, maybe it will take off.

Then again, I also see convection rebuilding over the old MLC south of Haiti, so I'm just confused.

[CourierPR]

I definitely see some swirling low clouds to the SW of Jamaica. It looks to be getting a little better defined through the loop. If it can pop some convection near/over it, maybe it will take off.

Then again, I also see convection rebuilding over the old MLC south of Haiti, so I'm just confused.

Bastardi posted today that two lows in the Caribbean will spawn the one cyclone ala typhoon formation in the Pacific.

[CrazyC83]

With that shear map, I cannot see development happening with this until the central Gulf.

[Stormcenter]

At this time I'm not so sure this will even make it into the Central GOM. IMO

With that shear map, I cannot see development happening with this until the central Gulf.

[Florida1118]

Just another waiting game. It might not even go to the GOM...We just dont know. New computer models show a hurricane in 72 hours. Then crossing the Yucatan then in the GOM and then rapid weakening. They are starting to come closer together also. Still a wide uncertainty, but less loops and sharp random turns.

[Stormcenter]

Below is the afternoon discussion from the NWS in New Orleans, LA. They mention a trough digging deep south with a ton of dry air and 93L.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY MONDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES CONCERN THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
IT WILL DIG AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST.

MOST MODELS...INCLUDING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...CURRENTLY
SUGGEST THAT THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PUSH A FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN THE SAME
OR RISE A FEW DEGREES DUE TO A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER AIR.
CONCERNING THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN. PER THE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM NHC...THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY
VERY DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTREMELY INCONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM...BOTH BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND WITHIN EACH
MODEL/S RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS. PRESENTLY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A WESTWARD TREND WITH A WEAK TC MOVING ACROSS OR JUST
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS OR MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.

[srainhoutx]

[Florida1118]

Convection starting to flare again.

[StarmanHDB]

Trying to find 93L's center of circulation is like trying to find a black hole. We know it's there, but good luck finding it!