ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Florida1118]

Is it the right blob, left, both, or neither? I think its the right, but then again...

[brunota2003]

What is funny is the GFDL showed 93L passing over/just to the north of Jamaica in one of the runs yesterday...and that is where the convection is today

[CourierPR]

What is funny is the GFDL showed 93L passing over/just to the north of Jamaica in one of the runs yesterday...and that is where the convection is today

The latest run of the GFDL takes 93L as a hurricane and tracks it just west of New Orleans early next week. Just saw an AccuWeather video depicting this.

[wxman57]

Trying to find 93L's center of circulation is like trying to find a black hole. We know it's there, but good luck finding it!

Actually, there isn't one. That's why it's hard to find.

[Clint_TX]

They moved the floater over and it's fairly easy to see the overall system as of this afternoon, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[txagwxman]

Broad low S of Jamaica, mid-level cyclonic vorticity South of Hispanola...it is the best that I can make out.

[Rockin4NOLA]

Just another waiting game. It might not even go to the GOM...We just dont know. New computer models show a hurricane in 72 hours. Then crossing the Yucatan then in the GOM and then rapid weakening. They are starting to come closer together also. Still a wide uncertainty, but less loops and sharp random turns.

..rapid weakening...don't you mean strengthening? Sorry if I'm mistaken here I'm just a bit confused.

Here is that accuweather video that was referenced:

http://www.accuweather.com/video/905866 ... t-week.asp

[cycloneye]

Below is an excerpt of the 2 PM PDT TS Darby discussion,where they talk about 93L.

THE FUTURE TRACK OF DARBY CONTINUES TO
WEIGH HEAVILY UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE CARIBBEAN SEA
DISTURBANCE TO VARIOUS DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND MOVE THAT
SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN WEAKENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DARBY BY 96-120 HOURS AND
CAUSES A DECREASE IN THE STEERING FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND
GFS-PARALLEL RUNS TAKE A RATHER ANEMIC LOOKING DARBY QUICKLY
WESTWARD...WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE DUE TO POOR MODEL
INITIALIZATION.

[MGC]

Lots of outflow boundries this afternoon....no surface circulation evident. Still looks like a train wreck. Convection is scattered, system is rather disorganized....don't see 93L becoming a TC any time soon.......MGC

[txagwxman]

Euro doesn't form the close cyclonic circulation until it gets near the Yucatan...that is where this system may get organized. Looks more like a TX / MX threat at the moment.

[srainhoutx]

HPC thoughts this afternoon...

AHEAD OF THIS EVOLVING EASTERN TROUGH THE 00Z UKMET APPEARS BEST
PER MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING IN REGARDS TO THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST...LYING IN BETWEEN THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GFS. MEANWHILE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES DEFINE AN INCREASINGLY WIDE ENVELOPE WITH A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO... WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BY FAR THE DEEPEST AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER THE GULF AND THE 00Z/12Z CANADIAN THE QUICKEST WITH
ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. USING CLIMATOLOGY AND THE
00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A GUIDE...THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IF A TROPICAL LOW/CYCLONE FORMED AND MOVED
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 5-6 DAYS THAT IT WOULD RECURVE
INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST...PARTICULARLY IF THE MORE
WESTERLY/DEEPER SOLUTIONS WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH VERIFY. FOR
NOW...THIS POSSIBILITY IS CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO SINCE THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE GETTING LESS BULLISH
WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT BY THE DAY...AND IT CURRENTLY SHOWS NO
ORGANIZATION. THE 16Z TPC/HPC COORDINATED TRACK WAS SHIFTED A BIT
TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE BETTER-AGREED UPON RIDGING EXPECTED TO
LINGER AT 500 HPA ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH
MOVES THE LOW CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LARGER CAMP OF ENSEMBLE
LOW CLUSTERING.

[StarmanHDB]

Trying to find 93L's center of circulation is like trying to find a black hole. We know it's there, but good luck finding it!

Actually, there isn't one. That's why it's hard to find.

So, nothing but a grouping of convective swirls (for now)?

[Sanibel]

There's a weak low-level swirl SW of Jamaica. I would think if it had anything to it it would have formed by now. However there's still enough convection tagging along behind it that it could possibly still develop.

[jlauderdal]

Below is the afternoon discussion from the NWS in New Orleans, LA. They mention a trough digging deep south with a ton of dry air and 93L.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY MONDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES CONCERN THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
IT WILL DIG AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST.

MOST MODELS...INCLUDING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...CURRENTLY
SUGGEST THAT THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PUSH A FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN THE SAME
OR RISE A FEW DEGREES DUE TO A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER AIR.
CONCERNING THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN. PER THE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM NHC...THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY
VERY DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTREMELY INCONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM...BOTH BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND WITHIN EACH
MODEL/S RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS. PRESENTLY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A WESTWARD TREND WITH A WEAK TC MOVING ACROSS OR JUST
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS OR MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.

I said texas two days ago and yesterday and today, its a weak system being steered by a strong ridge...west west and more west

[Ivanhater]

I'm really wondering if this is going to develop or if the wave axis is just going to crash into the Yucatan. Probably wind up being to close to land to develop, then not have enough time in the gulf to consolidate. Just an option, and the euro track flopping all over the place, who the heck knows...

[Sanibel]

I'm thinking the Caribbean stripped it out.


Toast.

[HURAKAN]

I remember that before Wilma developed, it was a big mess. Not expecting to see Wilma from 93L but you can't rule out development either.

[KWT]

Looks like this one is struggling for some reason, it just can't seem to pull itself into one system from the looks of things.

That ECM run looks a lot like Dolly from 2008...

[Dean4Storms]

I actually see 2 low level Swirls, one WSW of Jamaica by about 100 miles and another well SW of Jamaica between it and Nicaragua.

I find it strange that the MLC to the NE of Jamaica has pretty much remained all day.

[N2Storms]

[quote="jlauderdal"][quote="Stormcenter"]Below is the afternoon discussion from the NWS in New Orleans, LA. They mention a trough digging deep south with a ton of dry air and 93L.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY MONDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES CONCERN THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
IT WILL DIG AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST.

[b]MOST MODELS...INCLUDING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...CURRENTLY
SUGGEST THAT THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PUSH A FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN THE SAME
OR RISE A FEW DEGREES DUE TO A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER AIR.[/b]
CONCERNING THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN. PER THE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM NHC...THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY
VERY DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[b]MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTREMELY INCONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM...BOTH BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND WITHIN EACH
MODEL/S RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS. PRESENTLY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A WESTWARD TREND WITH A WEAK TC MOVING ACROSS OR JUST
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS OR MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.[/b][/quote]

I said texas two days ago and yesterday and today, its a weak system being steered by a strong ridge...west west and more west[/quote]



I agree...if anything does actually form I think anywhere from N.O. westward would be most at risk but my best uneducated guess is that if we do end up with a closed low, it is going to be at most a strong TS...IMO, it won't ever make it to Hurricane status