drezee wrote:Looking at the pattern, I don't see a way out...it is going to be tough to not get a strong TC out of this situation. Maybe the yucatan can slow it down. Large envelope of low pressure just waiting to bundle. I believe the LLC is forming off the W tip of Jam. Tomorrow at this time, it should be classified. Just my thoughts...
My main issue is the models have underestimated the shear, looking at the convection to the WSW of the broad turning shows the cloud deck being sheared quite quickly to the west, so I can only assume there is shear over 93L...its probably why it has n't got going yet and struggled to get stacked.
That being said convection does look like its trying to at least wrap into the E.side, maybe this could kick start the development of a smaller gyre in the larger one.