ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[rockyman]

Is the first time that 93L has the pressure down to 1009 mbs at Best Track.

AL, 93, 2010062400, , BEST, 0, 170N, 795W, 25, 1009 WV

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Hey, Luis...what's the "34 NEQ" from your link?...this is the first time it hasn't shown "0" in that colum

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think in the next round of increased convection, we will see this storm really come together. Once it 'explodes' again, i dont see it dying again

[tolakram]

One more for the evening. larger version of the last visible for the evening. 720P should be available for this one.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-p0kcuW1iQ[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

Is the first time that 93L has the pressure down to 1009 mbs at Best Track.

AL, 93, 2010062400, , BEST, 0, 170N, 795W, 25, 1009 WV

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Hey, Luis...what's the "34 NEQ" from your link?...this is the first time it hasn't shown "0" in that colum

I am not a guru on how atcf works the Best Track thing,but my guess is that is related to any more updates in any particular run and the tropical models (The BAMS) can make the run at that particular time. If I am wrong,I would like to have any of the pro mets to come.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Nice last visual tolakram. Think I can almost see that naked LLC. I still need Latitudes and Longitudes from my fellow experts to truly site these findings. Been here almost a year, but I'm gaining in knowledge. Thanks-WLD

[Dean4Storms]

There is a small area of dry air just west of this wave in the western Carib. Sea., between it and the slight shear it might be what is holding this wave back so far.

[tailgater]

Conditions at 42057 as of
(8:50 pm EDT on 06/23/2010)
0050 GMT on 06/24/2010:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.84 in

Pressure rising as expected but northly winds ?
Things are starting to come together, I would expect this Invest to be on the cusp of becoming our first TD of the season by this time tomorrow. But I'm just a long time gawker.
850mb vorticity, less impressive.

[Nederlander]

I think 83W-84W is going to be the mark for this thing to get its act together...

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fernandingas]

Hello friends. I have in my hand SMN bulletin Mexico. His prediction is that after spending the Yucatan Peninsula is better organized and become a Hurricane. This is the link
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/discusion/discusion.html

[wxman57]

Just in the last few hours, I'm seeing signs of organization south of Jamaica. Squalls are diminishing near the two mid-level centers to the east and concentrating south of Jamaica. Could be the beginning of something. Let's see if it continues tonight and tomorrow.

[Ivanhater]

Just in the last few hours, I'm seeing signs of organization south of Jamaica. Squalls are diminishing near the two mid-level centers to the east and concentrating south of Jamaica. Could be the beginning of something. Let's see if it continues tonight and tomorrow.

Hmmm. That seems a bit earlier than even you thought. I would like to see a nice burst, but I don't think this is that type of system, at least not yet. It may just be a large monsoon type system in the Caribbean right now that needs to congeal; which may have started.

[ozonepete]

Just in the last few hours, I'm seeing signs of organization south of Jamaica. Squalls are diminishing near the two mid-level centers to the east and concentrating south of Jamaica. Could be the beginning of something. Let's see if it continues tonight and tomorrow.

Hey wxman57, I just saw the same thing and came on in here to see what was going on. I agree with you.

[bahamaswx]

I can't believe the amount of energy still hanging out in the eastern caribbean.

[Weatherfreak000]

93L is definitely consolidating.

[Ikester]

I've used the analogy before....if you stir a cup of coffee long enough, the circulation will eventually reach the bottom of the cup.

[tailgater]

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off
This WV loop shows a Upper low in the SE GOM backing off to the west, as it moves out the shear zone should move out with it. It also shows the dry air slot that 93l is currently passing through.

[brunota2003]

I don't get it...these waves have had near prime conditions (according to current standards) to develop, and then even intensify. Little dry air, hot SSTs, low shear, low pressures...heck, some even already had a low pressure on them! Yet they keep failing...why?

What criteria have we overlooked in the past that is clearly not there currently?

We weren't expecting it to come together until Friday. Today is Wednesday. It's consolidating very slowly. Come back Friday.

Yes, but I was talking more in general. Something seems to be in the EPac that the Atlantic is currently lacking, but what is it? The Atlantic is trying it's darnedest to pop something off with not only this wave, but other waves as well, then the waves move into the EPac and BOOM...system. Conditions between the two basins are not that terribly different, so the EPac must have something that the Atlantic is lacking. 10 to 15 knots of shear should not prevent a system (though it would be lopsided), from forming when there is little dry air, hot ssts, low background pressures, etc.

It constantly happened in the past...what's different this time? (Besides the countless prayers being thrown up all across the Gulf)

[Brent]

Just in the last few hours, I'm seeing signs of organization south of Jamaica. Squalls are diminishing near the two mid-level centers to the east and concentrating south of Jamaica. Could be the beginning of something. Let's see if it continues tonight and tomorrow.

I just got home from work, looked at it, and saw the same. I will see if it persists overnight, but this is the best it has looked in 2 days, no denying that.

[Ivanhater]

We need some pictures up in here

[Ikester]

Up in here, up in here...