ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[southerngale]

Yep.. Mexico to Florida. Crazy!

[Ivanhater]

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Hush your mouth Stormie!!! er...keyboard that is.

[southerngale]

12z Euro to 78 hours - has TS into Northeast Yucatan

[southerngale]

96 hrs - 12z euro has Low or the TD-- off the nw corner of Yucatan heading NW

*info from DT

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Unless it takes the route into Yucatan and southern TX/NE Mexico, all the models make this a bad oil spill scenario.

[Wx_Warrior]

Something has to form first.

[thetruesms]

Thanks for clearing that up. Do you think that Nam run is plausible?

Plausible? Sure, I can see how its run could reasonably work out. But is it probable? Given the progress of 93L to this point, and the NAM's . . . reputation, I don't think I'd put very much stock into it.

[KWT]

Worth noting the circulation is developing right where the GFDL is at 12hrs time, so thats quite an interesting thing and probably suggests the GFDL is on the right track for the short term.

[southerngale]

12z Euro 108 hrs in sw Gulf

120 hr its redeveloping fast

turning nw

heading for Brownsville



*info from DT




DT: " BUT the track is changing like a BIG oil tanker

it is going around the edge of the big HIGH off the se usa coast

si it will likely make landfall ... ASSUMING this model is correct

n of Brownsville"


Edit: " also at 144 hr new hot off the presses

12z euro VAID 0700 CDT 6/30

has a Cane headed for far southern TX coast

tracking NW or NNW

landfall seems to be between Brownsville and Corpus Christi"



Another edit: " 156 hrs DIRECT HIT BROWNSVILLE evening of 6/30

cat 1 cane"

[ronjon]

Looks like a pretty good model consensus is developing, especially if the 12Z Euro climbs on board with a central GOM system curving N-NE in the northern GOM. Throw out the BAM suite because as wxman57 says, there're no good above 20 deg N latitude and don't respond to changing upper level conditions well. I'm still not convinced this will be anything more than a T-wave though.

[ROCK]

Looks like a pretty good model consensus is developing, especially if the 12Z Euro climbs on board with a central GOM system curving N-NE in the northern GOM. Throw out the BAM suite because as wxman57 says, there're no good above 20 deg N latitude and don't respond to changing upper level conditions well. I'm still not convinced this will be anything more than a T-wave though.

Brownsville is the NGOM?

[ronjon]

Looks like a pretty good model consensus is developing, especially if the 12Z Euro climbs on board with a central GOM system curving N-NE in the northern GOM. Throw out the BAM suite because as wxman57 says, there're no good above 20 deg N latitude and don't respond to changing upper level conditions well. I'm still not convinced this will be anything more than a T-wave though.

Brownsville is the NGOM?

Ah, I suppose you missed the part where I said if the Euro climbs on board Wrote to soon. Nevermind, back to the Euro vs GFS, CMC,GFDL, and HWRF.

[ROCK]

12z Euro 108 hrs in sw Gulf

120 hr its redeveloping fast

turning nw

heading for Brownsville



*info from DT




DT: " BUT the track is changing like a BIG oil tanker

it is going around the edge of the big HIGH off the se usa coast

si it will likely make landfall ... ASSUMING this model is correct

n of Brownsville"


Edit: " also at 144 hr new hot off the presses

12z euro VAID 0700 CDT 6/30

has a Cane headed for far southern TX coast

tracking NW or NNW

landfall seems to be between Brownsville and Corpus Christi"

well there you have it clear as mud once again.....I am a EURO hugger like WX Warrior so the consensus for that model is left...ala Dolly track...and that has been for more than a few runs now...

[perk]

Looks like a pretty good model consensus is developing, especially if the 12Z Euro climbs on board with a central GOM system curving N-NE in the northern GOM. Throw out the BAM suite because as wxman57 says, there're no good above 20 deg N latitude and don't respond to changing upper level conditions well. I'm still not convinced this will be anything more than a T-wave though.

Brownsville is the NGOM?

Can there even be a consensus of the models without a defined center?

[Wx_Warrior]

Landfall north of Brownsville on Wed night!

[rockyman]

The Euro does follow the consensus (turning to the north), it just does it several hundred miles farther west

The bottom line is the models are forecasting some type of ridge weakness to develop somewhere over the Gulf of Mexico. As always, the big question is timing

[HouTXmetro]

What is going to landfall? There is nothing to landfall! lol

[ROCK]

Looks like a pretty good model consensus is developing, especially if the 12Z Euro climbs on board with a central GOM system curving N-NE in the northern GOM. Throw out the BAM suite because as wxman57 says, there're no good above 20 deg N latitude and don't respond to changing upper level conditions well. I'm still not convinced this will be anything more than a T-wave though.

Brownsville is the NGOM?

Ah, I suppose you missed the part where I said if the Euro climbs on board Wrote to soon. Nevermind, back to the Euro vs GFS, CMC,GFDL, and HWRF.

nah my bad I thought you had seen SG's edits above about the EURO going into Brownsville.....we shall see...The EURO does very well with upper level conditions as you well know....camps are still split....


peace

[Ivanhater]

Well I'm so glad we have it narrowed down on the afternoon model runs

Euro is the only global model left on the Tex/Mex scenario, but is a good model.

However, last night had it steamrolling west into Mexico, now it is feeling the weakness. Seems to be having trouble with the ridge

Above all, the models DO develop this which is saying something. The Euro has not dropped this once in over a week which is remarkable. So it makes you go hmmmmm