ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Wx_Warrior]

[SunnyThoughts]

Has it ever happened before where ALL the models developed a storm....and in reality it never actually developed?

[South Texas Storms]

Landfall north of Brownsville on Wed night!

i hope that happens! avoid that oil and give us same rain please 93L!

[Stormcenter]

I don't know but I do recall the "monster storm" that many models had moving into the GOM and strenghthening that never materialized. I think it was "Chris". Now that was a major bust all of the models missed on.

Has it ever happened before where ALL the models developed a storm....and in reality it never actually developed?

[Big O]

Landfall north of Brownsville on Wed night!

Actually, DT says landfall (direct hit) at 156h (in between 144h and 168h) on BRO. In other words, the system doesn't head in a straight line from the extreme SW gulf (Hour 144) directly to the area between CC and BRO (Hour 168). Instead, it makes a gradual loop making a direct hit on BRO (Hour 156) and them moving NNW towards the area depicted at hour 168.

[KWT]

Yeah the models are quite keen on strengthening the system in the Gulf, I'd imagine conditions aren't too bad up there and thus forecasting a TS. Looks like it hits the same region as Dolly did 2008.

We've also come to better agreement with strength with most seeming to go to around 1000-995mbs or so as a peak strength.

[Aquawind]

Now back to the models..oh that's right were thinking a probabl llc reform in the discussion thread so throw them out for another day...lol models schmodels..

[Ivanhater]

Just for a bit more clarity on the GFS..here is the GFS ensembles

[somethingfunny]

Just for a bit more clarity on the GFS..here is the GFS ensembles

Crystal clear!

[HurryKane]

Just for a bit more clarity on the GFS..here is the GFS ensembles

Crackheads, all of 'em.

[KWT]

Well the ensembles are on good agreement with a track over C.Yucatan which will weaken any developing system a little.

I think the differences between the eCM and the GFS is the ECM holds back the LLC as the MLC joins it from the west, or it forms another LLC closer to the convection/MLC.

[SunnyThoughts]

lol look at the left most outlier of the gfs ensemble left, up, left, down, up haha

[thetruesms]

lol look at the left most outlier of the gfs ensemble left, up, left, down, up haha

B-A-Select-Start? No wait, that's not it!

[Ivanhater]

A better view of the Canadian

[LSU2001]

I think the Canadian just has it in for NOLA. Must have gotten some bad oysters at Acme some time in the past

[ronjon]

Good discussion on model frustration from NWS Tallahassee today:

.LONG TERM... (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO FLIP AND FLOP RUN TO RUN WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN. I
WON`T GO INTO THE DETAILS OF EACH MODEL...BUT SEEING THE EURO
CHANGE FROM A 950 MB CYCLONE IN THE GULF ON THE 23/00Z RUN TO A
MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM ON THE 23/12Z RUN AND NOW TO AN EXTREME
SOUTHERN SOLUTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE 24/00Z
RUN...I HAVE VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL PREDICTIONS
REGARDING THE LONG RANGE PREDICTION OF THIS SYSTEM. IN FACT...THE
GFS HAS NEVER REALLY INDICATED ANY SIGNIFICANT GENESIS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS (EXCEPT THE EURO) SEEM TO
CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONSIDERABLY
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THUS...THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THOUGH IN THE EVENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. WITH
THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EACH DAY FROM THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY RETURN TO CLIMO
VALUES...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

[KWT]

Quite a strong system there on the CMC, probably the strongest of the models now, but then again thats hardly something unusual is it!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF TSRA FROM AUS-CLL-DWH FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. BUT AS OUTFLOW FROM THOSE STORMS MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE 59 CORRIDOR EXPECT MORE STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND BE SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY SO HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE RICH MOISTURE IS
GOING TO SLOWLY DEPART THE AREA TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN QUICKLY EAST MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. POSES ISSUES WITH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE/MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
HAVE TENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS AND EXT NERN MEXICO. SO EXPECT WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THEN CONFIDENCE DROPS
QUICKLY AND HAVE GONE WITH OR BELOW MEX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT OR CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY
AND BEYOND. DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT THAT GFS IF PROGGING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY NEXT WEEK TO MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH UNLESS TROPICAL SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND STAYS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK.

[StormClouds63]

I don't know but I do recall the "monster storm" that many models had moving into the GOM and strenghthening that never materialized. I think it was "Chris". Now that was a major bust all of the models missed on.

Has it ever happened before where ALL the models developed a storm....and in reality it never actually developed?

2 big-time flops of recent years:
Debby 2000
Earl 2004

[South Texas Storms]

does anyone have any idea yet of where this system will go after it develops? or are the models still all over the place?