ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[micktooth]

If you add the days of 90L + 91L + 92L + 93L, this is the 20th invest day and we still can't get a depression to form!

No wonder most of us are frustrated!!!

I think all of this has given me a "tropical depression"

[Comanche]

Could too much fuel actually be working against it at the moment? as in too many areas of convection in a broad area actually hampering formation due to their effect on each other?

[cycloneye]

If you add the days of 90L + 91L + 92L + 93L, this is the 20th invest day and we still can't get a depression to form!

No wonder most of us are frustrated!!!

Two reasons,Expected very busy season by the experts and EPAC is sprinting.

[tolakram]

I think an upgrade decision will depend on the persistence of the convection near 74W, 16N at 8pm.

[SoupBone]

If you add the days of 90L + 91L + 92L + 93L, this is the 20th invest day and we still can't get a depression to form!

No wonder most of us are frustrated!!!

Two reasons,Expected very busy season by the experts and EPAC is sprinting.

The EPAC sure is blazing along already. I didn't pay attention to the forecasted season. Were they thinking it was going to be this active for the EPAC?

[Cdeck81]

If you add the days of 90L + 91L + 92L + 93L, this is the 20th invest day and we still can't get a depression to form!

No wonder most of us are frustrated!!!

Two reasons,Expected very busy season by the experts and EPAC is sprinting.

The EPAC sure is blazing along already. I didn't pay attention to the forecasted season. Were they thinking it was going to be this active for the EPAC?

They actually said the EPAC season was going to be below average to average. Pretty weird...

[BigA]

I am looking at the low clouds south of 93L. At the beginning of the loop, they seem to be flowing north to northwest, toward the swirl. However, by the end of the loop, there is definitely an eastward component in their motion. Could this be a sign that a second low is forming near the area of powerful convection (forming in a fairly unfavorable time of the day, no less) south of Jamaica?

Here is the loop I'm staring at

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[cycloneye]

HPC discussion this afternoon of the GOM and 93L.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

...GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BEST CLUSTERING OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS HAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWEST
FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE TRACK OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
AREA FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE 00Z AND 12Z CANADIAN/06Z GFS ARE NORTHEAST OF NEARLY ALL THE
00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND COULD NOT BE USED NEAR THE
GULF COAST. A BLEND OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY AND
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE /WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY TRENDED AWAY FROM
THIS IDEA/ HAS LOWERED THE CHANCES FOR RECURVATURE INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST TO AROUND 10-15
PERCENT...SO THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO. THE COORDINATED 16Z HPC/TPC POINTS BRING
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE US/MEXICAN BORDER LATE NEXT WEEK. EITHER
WAY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS
SYSTEM NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

[Ivanhater]

A lot more concentration and heavy convection today

[StormClouds63]

Seasonal forecasts can sometimes be way off ... 2006 was a perfect example. That persistent east coast trough and all those ULLs caused most systems to weaken and/or re-curve out to sea. No way this season comes close to 2005 ... or even 1995. I think 1998 is more realistic in terms of numbers.

93AL is a great tease ... it's still a mess, but you can't rule it out completely. I still say no stronger than tropical depression, but who knows?

[ronjon]

To me, the LLC just northeast of Honduras is now stationary and is getting stronger - the low level wind field has expanded with southerly winds now a couple of hundred miles east of the center. I think this exposed LLC will become the storm as convection moves over from the east it develops. I thinks whats hindering convection at the LLC is the sinking air outflow from Darby. As Darby moves off to the west, this should diminish.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

[tailgater]

T-stroms getting a little closer to the broad low.

I'm thinking this might be one of those systems that keeps reforming until it gets into the open waters of the BOC or GOM. Which maybe what AFM may have said? it technical terms.

[KWT]

Yeah nice little region of convection blowing up now just east of the broad LLC, wouldn't be all that shocking to see a tighter LLC try and form under that convection at some point soon, or relocate there.

[Air Force Met]

Interesting discussion from AFM, I just wish we had consistency in models. An awful lot of them take it into the central GOM.

That's because most of them are based off the GFS...which IMO...overdoes trofs (both speed and strength) during the summer months...hence the turn to the north...

[BigA]

Any chance the convection could yank the low level circulation under it. I seem to remember this sometimes happening.

As for the low, I think Ronjon might be right. It may just be that 93L's low level circulation has become better defined and is pulling in air from a greater distance to the south and east.

[somethingfunny]

[Ikester]

In the fetal stages of cyclogenesis, it is not uncommon for the center to relocate multiple times as pressure falls over a broad area. Just because it is a mass of clouds now does not mean we won't have an Angry Alex on our hands in a few days. I've seen many hurricanes bomb out in the gulf. Opal comes to mind. It is important to remember though that all we have is clouds and a lot of tapping feet...

[KWT]

Any chance the convection could yank the low level circulation under it. I seem to remember this sometimes happening.

As for the low, I think Ronjon might be right. It may just be that 93L's low level circulation has become better defined and is pulling in air from a greater distance to the south and east.

I don't think its just by fluke that the system has formed an LLC just a little to the NE of land, I suspect the frictional effects of the land has helped to establish a LLC....that being said it wouldn't shocked me to see a tighter LLC try and form near that deep convection over the next 12-18hrs, esp as we go into Dmax.

[tailgater]

Bouy 42057 now reporting a pressure of 1007.2 mb

[lrak]

Bouy 42057 now reporting a pressure of 1007.2 mb

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

tailgater I almost had you this time. 1007mb is kinda low eh?