ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Nederlander]

does anyone have any idea yet of where this system will go after it develops? or are the models still all over the place?

the problem is that we havent even got a defined LLC yet.. initializations have been wrong to start with.. plus we are a couple of days from this thing being in the gulf.. on top of that, models are trying to gauge the strength of 93L, how far south this trough will dig, and the strength of the ridge to the NE.. lets just say i would be happy if it were showing a direct hit for my area on a model run because its almost certain to change..


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[Ivanhater]

18z GFS FINALLY develops it

[drezee]

Huge rain event in store if that is correct...also strom South winds pushing the oil North...

[Ivanhater]

GFS BIG change...of course it wants to jump on board now that we have something developing now

[South Texas Storms]

does the 18z gfs show any effect in texas from it?

[KWT]

Ah now we finally have a full house...looks like it rakes the southern states as it gets enhanced probably by the trough and goes extra-tropical I'd imagine, or at least starts to gain some outside forcing...

Still makes landfall as a strengthening system, so we have that as a trend as well now.

[gatorcane]

Ivanhater where are you getting that GFS run? The runs I am looking at don't show anything like what those images are showing. The links I am using are:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

168HR (same timeframe you posted above):

[KWT]

Its the paralell run Gatorcane, thats the GFS version that will take over from the current one...

Take your pick really with them, the fact the Para run follows every other model is interesting though.

[Ivanhater]

Gator, it is the new GFS that will become fully operational next month.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... arib.shtml

[ROCK]

it might develope it finally but it is still showing that front digging really deep for June almost July......if the EURO bites tonight then I will have no choice to jump on board....

guess I will be staying up another night.....crap...

[Ivanhater]

it might develope it finally but it is still showing that front digging really deep for June almost July......if the EURO bites tonight then I will have no choice to jump on board....

guess I will be staying up another night.....crap...

Mhmm, we all knew you would

[ROCK]

Its the paralell run Gatorcane, thats the GFS version that will take over from the current one...

Take your pick really with them, the fact the Para run follows every other model is interesting though.

every other model but the Euro...

[gatorcane]

Gator, it is the new GFS that will become fully operational next month.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... arib.shtml

Ok thanks for the link. Well this will be a good test of the new SW vs. the old SW for the GFS. Will be interesting to see what happens.

I will say its the 18Z though, I imagine the 00Z run of the parallel model would be an interesting one to look at to see if it was just one run or not.

[srainhoutx]

Its the paralell run Gatorcane, thats the GFS version that will take over from the current one...

Take your pick really with them, the fact the Para run follows every other model is interesting though.

every other model but the Euro...

Those early morning are tough. Hopefully the long awaited LLC is forming. Good data certainly helps regarding guidance.

[tailgater]

Its the paralell run Gatorcane, thats the GFS version that will take over from the current one...

Take your pick really with them, the fact the Para run follows every other model is interesting though.

every other model but the Euro...

The EURO is is the one that does the least with that wave just NE of the islands, most have the wave in between the Bahamas and Bermuda kinda breaking down that ridge also.

[Vandymit]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L



INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 24



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 16.2 81.5 280./ 9.9

6 15.9 82.2 250./ 7.1

12 15.8 82.8 257./ 6.1

18 16.1 83.6 294./ 8.2

24 16.5 83.9 311./ 4.8

30 17.1 84.4 324./ 8.1

36 18.0 85.1 322./11.2

42 19.0 85.8 327./11.6

48 19.9 86.8 311./12.6

54 20.3 88.1 287./12.8

60 21.8 88.7 339./16.5

66 23.1 89.4 330./14.2

72 24.0 89.8 335./ 9.7

78 24.4 90.4 309./ 6.9

84 25.5 90.4 357./10.9

90 26.8 89.6 33./15

STORM DISSIPATED AT 90 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[tailgater]

Hum dissipates when it gets in the oil? j/j

[Ivanhater]

GFDL

[antonlsu]

I wonder once this system becomes well organized if some of the models will change, what is yalls take on that subject?

[ROCK]

Its the paralell run Gatorcane, thats the GFS version that will take over from the current one...

Take your pick really with them, the fact the Para run follows every other model is interesting though.

every other model but the Euro...

Those early morning are tough. Hopefully the long awaited LLC is forming. Good data certainly helps regarding guidance.

Steve, the EURO has been pretty consistant run after run..I know I have been staying up until 2am following it...few odd balls thrown in there...

last AFD I saw was they were siding with the latest EURO solution....like I said, if it bites on the lastest GFS I might jump on board.....I am not jumping on the latest GFDL solution....