ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thats because he likes the GFS.

[MGC]

The more south this forms (if it does) the less of a threat to the NGOM. Hopefully it falls apart over the Yucatan......MGC

[HURAKAN]

Remember Opal? Long time over the Yucatan Peninsula as a depression, that wasn't a problem later on.

[Nederlander]

even if its not fully developed when it crosses the yucatan doesnt mean itll fall apart.. in fact, weaker systems are sometimes tightened up by friction with land, allowing it to become more organized.. remember the gulf is infamous for RI.. that is if shear is a non factor.. on another note, weve been focused so much on the trough and how far south it will go.. the models are definitely divided on this, but i would like to point out, the trough isnt the only way this thing can get pulled more to the north.. if the ridge breaks down, then we could still be looking at more northerly landfall.. models are pretty consistent until it reaches the gulf, then who knows..

[HURAKAN]

93L still doesn't convince me

[Nederlander]

93L still doesn't convince me

I think itll get its act together tonight/tomorrow.. but what im wondering about is that its not gaining any latitude.. im beginning to wonder if itll turn more NW before reaching Honduras..

[HURAKAN]

315
ABNT20 KNHC 250528
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA
BORDER. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[chzzdekr81]

That was fast Hurakan.

[chzzdekr81]

So now it's moving Northwest...

[I-wall]

This thing still looks like garbage.

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity

[I-wall]

Vorticity

The strongest vorticity is well northeast of where we thought the new LLC was forming. Won't this stronger vorticity help to slow or stop development?

[BigA]

My guess is that whatever is between Cuba and Hispanola is probably a transitory feature that won't have a very important effect on whether 93L developes. There certainly isn't much there on the satellite. What I do see as important, is that the vorticity with 93L is increasing, and is quite well co-located with the strongest convection, which is bursting yellow/black.

[HURAKAN]

I feel about 93L more or less like Samuel L. Jackson feels about snakes in a plane!!! lol

time to sleep

[Brent]

Well slowly but surely it's organizing. It's a painfully slow process though, still looks "meh" to me.

[South Texas Storms]

Well slowly but surely it's organizing. It's a painfully slow process though, still looks "meh" to me.

when do you think it will finally become a td? or do you think it eventually will?

[Brent]

Well slowly but surely it's organizing. It's a painfully slow process though, still looks "meh" to me.

when do you think it will finally become a td? or do you think it eventually will?

I'm thinking recon will find one this afternoon. Messy and disorganized, but enough to call it.

Huge blowup of very deep convection NE of the center:

[Sanibel]

It qualifies for persistence. We'll see what it looks like tomorrow.

[Aquawind]

So here we are same ole 93L story with a little more hope. So the deep convection is still displaced to the east but, about 75 miles closer to the center tonight.. Yea Yea I know I know..patience..

[Clint_TX]

Based on what I can make out of the low level cloud field, this burst is over the "center" now