EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010

CELIA IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE THIS MORNING...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED 15-20 N MI WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CLOSED EYEWALL WITH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF -75C TO -80C. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN 140 KT. THAT WILL BE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CELIA CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
AFTER THAT THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE U. S. WEST COAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CAUSE CELIA TO SLOW ITS
FORWARD MOTION...WITH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOWING THE CYCLONE
MOVING LITTLE AT DAYS 4-5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO AND IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA...TVCN...AND TVCC CONSENSUS MODELS.

IT IS LIKELY THAT CELIA HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY AS SHOWN IN ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. CELIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
IN 24-36 HR...BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-60 HR...AND DECAY TO A
REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 117.0W 140 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 14.1N 118.6W 130 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 14.9N 120.4W 105 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 16.1N 123.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 16.5N 124.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 16.5N 126.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KWT]

Wow what an amazing hurricane, I just ran the long IR loop and there is no change at all, I mean the whole thing remains perfect without even slight flucations, I've never seen anything quite like that....must be an Annular trait!

Shows how condusive things have been in the EPAC...that is quite interesting!

[cycloneye]

Who would have thought in May 15 that the EPAC would have five cyclones before June 25,two of them hurricanes and one of those a cat 5,especially with El Nino gone.

[Kingarabian]

Wow what an amazing hurricane, I just ran the long IR loop and there is no change at all, I mean the whole thing remains perfect without even slight flucations, I've never seen anything quite like that....must be an Annular trait!

Shows how condusive things have been in the EPAC...that is quite interesting!

AGREE'D. That eye has not changed a bit...

[HURAKAN]

looks annular

[bob rulz]

This is definitely an annular hurricane right now - the spiral bands are very tightly-wound and as people have said before its appearance on IR has almost literally not changed for hours, aside from an ever-so-slight warming of the cloud tops.

[Blown Away]

What a treat for us, Celia is a beautiful hurricane!!

[HURAKAN]

nice

[Kingarabian]

Well later on today it should be tested when it approaches a stable environment.

[KWT]

This is definitely an annular hurricane right now - the spiral bands are very tightly-wound and as people have said before its appearance on IR has almost literally not changed for hours, aside from an ever-so-slight warming of the cloud tops.

Irs actually nearly perfect in terms of the way it looks, an amazing hurricane and no doubt about it being an annular category-5, first one I guess to be this strong since Isabel?

[HURAKAN]

EP, 04, 2010062512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1176W, 130, 935, HU

down to 150 mph

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look very impressive

[Raininfyr]

Hate to say she is looking good, but she is "Looking Good"!

[Bocadude85]

nice

What a beautiful Image

[fogbreath]

Don't get any 'canes my way, but I will say Celia's quite the beauty

[Stormhunter27]

This is what I would call the perfect storm. Way away from any landfall possibilities and utterly gorgeous to look at. Full Cat 5 and just stunning. It's a real textbook case of hurricane initiation, strengthening and given what it's about to encounter, weakening. What I'm going to be very interested in is what it takes to disrupt this perfect 'cane and how fast it drops from the Cat 5 category. I.e. as it moves over the cooler waters, what temperature and how long over the water will it take to drop in strength? How much of a drop, how fast, etc.

It's amazing what the Pacific can do, especially given the lack of El Nino etc.

What I hope is that we don't see anything quite like this just offshore of Miami and heading west.

[cycloneye]

251432
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 0907 UTC AMSR-E AQUA-1
OVERPASS SHOW THAT CELIA HAS A WELL DEFINED 20 N MI EYE SURROUNDED
BY A VERY SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS SHOWING SOME
CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR HURRICANE. THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE
EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOME THIS MORNING...AND IT APPEARS THAT CELIA
HAS COMMENCED ITS EXPECTED WEAKENING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 130 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 130 KT AND AN 0900 UTC
CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 135 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...CELIA IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
48 HOURS...AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 5 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/11. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SHOULD REMAIN INTACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST. THIS
CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE CELIA TO SLOW AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS THE CYCLONE
DECAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 13.8N 118.1W 130 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W 115 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.3N 121.2W 95 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 122.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.2N 123.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 16.5N 127.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[SootyTern]

What I hope is that we don't see anything quite like this just offshore of Miami and heading west.

I second that.

She is a stormwatcher's delight today; beats watching the blobs in the Caribbean right now.

[Cookie]

breath taking, and a fish storm. A hurricane watchers dream

[HURAKAN]

beautiful pic