ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

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Extremeweatherguy
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#721 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:01 am

What is interesting to note about tonight's run of the upgraded GFS is that it still shows a very strong trough (for late June) moving into the picture, but 93L seems to miss making the northeastward connection with the weakness this go around. Because 93L is positioned slightly further south and west on this run when the trough swings by (compared to the 18z), the system becomes stuck in the western GOM and eventually meanders into northern Mexico.


Comparison between 18z and 00z upgraded GFS runs for next Wed. morning..

18z run:
500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... 0_138s.gif
Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_138s.gif

00z run:
500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... 0_132s.gif
Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_132s.gif


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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#722 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:04 am

wow all of the major models seem to be agreeing more with the euro. new 00z nogaps, canadian, and gfs are all trending that way.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#723 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:07 am

South Texas Storms wrote:wow all of the major models seem to be agreeing more with the euro. new 00z nogaps, canadian, and gfs are all trending that way.



saw it with IKE and now I am a firm believer in the EURO more so than I am the GFS...but thats just me...Everyone has their favorite...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#724 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:09 am

ROCK wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:wow all of the major models seem to be agreeing more with the euro. new 00z nogaps, canadian, and gfs are all trending that way.



saw it with IKE and now I am a firm believer in the EURO more so than I am the GFS...but thats just me...Everyone has their favorite...


yes i agree with you.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#725 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:47 am

South Texas Storms wrote:wow all of the major models seem to be agreeing more with the euro. new 00z nogaps, canadian, and gfs are all trending that way.
Yes sir!
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#726 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:52 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:wow all of the major models seem to be agreeing more with the euro. new 00z nogaps, canadian, and gfs are all trending that way.
Yes sir!


so should we start having more confidence in the models now if the euro shows the same later tonight?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#727 Postby Nederlander » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:53 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:wow all of the major models seem to be agreeing more with the euro. new 00z nogaps, canadian, and gfs are all trending that way.
Yes sir!


That must be you coop!
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#728 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:45 am

Yep. 0Z Euro has system moving Inland S. of Brownsville.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#729 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:47 am

I'll post image shortly....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#730 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:57 am

so it looks like we might be seeing a tex/mex landfall. does this scenario sound plausible to you guys?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#731 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:58 am

0z euro....

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#732 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:39 am

South Texas Storms wrote:so it looks like we might be seeing a tex/mex landfall. does this scenario sound plausible to you guys?


for sure, i liked that idea three days ago and of course even more now, weak system with strong ridge
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#733 Postby KWT » Fri Jun 25, 2010 5:20 am

Yeah thats what I've been thinking as well, I think something close to the TX/MX border is likely at the moment. ECM suggests a TS right now.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#734 Postby ronjon » Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:01 am

Latest model plots - I noticed the BAMM has now shifted northward. GFDL and HWRF almost identical tracks.

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#735 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:56 am

Both the 00Z GFS (new model) and ECMWF show a system that heads into Mexico south of Brownsville. So does NOGAPS. At least we are seeing some consensus from the global models so I would say a BOC/Mexico solution seems quite possible (maybe likely) at this point. Perhaps extreme southern Texas may be impacted. IF that were to verify, great news for those in the GOM in the US and the oil spill area.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#736 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:58 am

But of course the model runs can be thrown out the window if a depression forms later today and then some fairly quick strenthening takes place during the 24-48 hr timeframe before it reaches the yucatan. Also the NHC is saying 93L has staarted to move towrds to NW and will continue to do so. IMO biggest thing to watch for the is evolution and progression of the early summer trough that could make its way down south and how much it breaks the ridge down.
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#737 Postby KWT » Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:59 am

The one thing that is obvious looking at the mean motion is that steering currents have become weak which probably suggests that the models idea of a NW turn is not far off from happening.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#738 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:00 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:But of course the model runs can be thrown out the window if a depression forms later today and then some fairly quick strenthening takes place during the 24-48 hr timeframe before it reaches the yucatan. Also the NHC is saying 93L has staarted to move towrds to NW and will continue to do so. IMO biggest thing to watch for the is evolution and progression of the early summer trough that could make its way down south and how much it breaks the ridge down.


Where do you NHC indicating "NW"? In the latest disco they indicate it is heading towards the Yucatan, that is WNW to W movement. Even if a depression forms later today the GFS and ECMWF have really started to agree on the evolution of this system, probably a TS into the WGOM if they are correct, and quite possibly a Southern Texas or Mexico landfall far away from the oil spill.
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#739 Postby KWT » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:05 am

The NHC in thier latest statement said they expected the system to move NW towards Yucatan, due west/WNW would take it into Belize more then likely.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#740 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:12 am

gatorcane wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:But of course the model runs can be thrown out the window if a depression forms later today and then some fairly quick strenthening takes place during the 24-48 hr timeframe before it reaches the yucatan. Also the NHC is saying 93L has staarted to move towrds to NW and will continue to do so. IMO biggest thing to watch for the is evolution and progression of the early summer trough that could make its way down south and how much it breaks the ridge down.


Where do you NHC indicating "NW"? In the latest disco they indicate it is heading towards the Yucatan, that is WNW to W movement. Even if a depression forms later today the GFS and ECMWF have really started to agree on the evolution of this system, probably a TS into the WGOM if they are correct, and quite possibly a Southern Texas or Mexico landfall far away from the oil spill.


FROM 2 am discussion...
HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...
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