ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

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#1241 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:21 am

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Looking pretty good
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#1242 Postby KWT » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:26 am

System looks decent from a convective standpoint though I think I'll wait for more Vis images before judging what the system is really going right now.

No doubt that its got some nice convective bursting.

By the way when will see the recon obs coming in?
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#1243 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:27 am

RECON leaves at 1030 am edt and arrives around 2 pm edt
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#1244 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:37 am

Loop _ http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Looks like a LLC is present under the convection. First impression
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1245 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:42 am

AL, 93, 2010062512, , BEST, 0, 165N, 825W, 30, 1005, LO,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1246 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:42 am

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#1247 Postby KWT » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:45 am

HURAKAN wrote:Loop _ http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Looks like a LLC is present under the convection. First impression


Its right on the edge of the convection on the western side looking at that loop, you can see the western part of the LLC rotating with the eastern part just under the convective blow up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1248 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:46 am

Best track more or less favors TAFB position's estimate of 16.7 N 82.2 W. SAB's estimate was 15.3 N 81.6 W
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#1249 Postby KWT » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:50 am

Yeah I think that the TFAB position looks about right having a look at the Vis imagery but I wouldn't be surprised if the actual center is a little to the east of thier location, maybe about 81.5-82W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1250 Postby tailgater » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:54 am

Looking at the first Visible loop this morning, it doesn't look well organized yet but you can see things seem to be well on the way to becoming our first TD of 2019.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1251 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:55 am

tailgater wrote:Looking at the first Visible loop this morning, it doesn't look well organized yet but you can see things seem to be well on the way to becoming our first TD of 2019.


Yeah, I think that by 2019 it could be a tropical depression!!! lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1252 Postby txagwxman » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:57 am

93L is a depression in my book...1006 mb pressure is enough for me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1253 Postby lrak » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:58 am

Is this one of the longest invest threads?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1254 Postby TheBurn » Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:59 am

HURAKAN wrote:Yeah, I think that by 2019 it could be a tropical depression!!! lol

Well done Sir... :hehe:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1255 Postby KWT » Fri Jun 25, 2010 8:02 am

lrak wrote:Is this one of the longest invest threads?


Not even close...as someone said earlier pre-Dolly got to about 220 pages before upgrade...

I think its probably close to being upgraded, it could possibly need one more burst overnight and by that time it could well be getting rather close to the Yucatan...

All depends on what recon finds..
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#1256 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 25, 2010 8:04 am

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Large envelope
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#1257 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 25, 2010 8:15 am

WOW, it's so quiet in here. Like people are in shock that the waiting could be over!!!
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#1258 Postby KWT » Fri Jun 25, 2010 8:18 am

I'm sure it'll busier today as we get recon come in and we see whether this does get upgraded or not...today could be the day as they say!
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#1259 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Jun 25, 2010 8:20 am

When Recon goes out, we will have ALOT members on the AS forms. You will see.

(AS-Active Storms)
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#1260 Postby cwachal » Fri Jun 25, 2010 8:24 am

I think we will see TD at 2 PM today and then a TS at 8 AM tomorrow.... TS warnings will be posted for Honduras and TS watches for the far west coast of Cuba
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