ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[HouTXmetro]

well I don't know the significance but I awoke to all the BAMS suite shifted right along with the HWRF and GDFL.

[Frank2]

00Z GFS shows only weak systems in the Gulf and Atlantic:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[KWT]

HouTXmetro it probably just means that the weakness that is meant to lift the system out to the NW is becoming increasingly evident and the BAMs are reflecting that.

[Frank2]

KWT,

Per our posts of a few days ago, so far so good per a possible track of a weak system toward the Yucatan and TX - we'll see what happens...

[clfenwi]

12Z tropical models. Note increased initialized intensity

Code: Select all

104
WHXX01 KWBC 251241
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100625 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100625  1200   100626  0000   100626  1200   100627  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.5N  82.5W   17.0N  84.3W   17.7N  86.1W   18.4N  87.8W
BAMD    16.5N  82.5W   16.7N  84.3W   17.0N  86.2W   17.4N  88.0W
BAMM    16.5N  82.5W   16.9N  84.4W   17.4N  86.2W   17.9N  87.8W
LBAR    16.5N  82.5W   16.9N  84.3W   17.7N  86.3W   18.8N  88.3W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          45KTS          55KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          45KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100627  1200   100628  1200   100629  1200   100630  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  89.3W   20.4N  92.0W   21.3N  94.1W   21.8N  96.4W
BAMD    17.8N  89.5W   18.9N  91.6W   19.7N  93.3W   20.9N  95.7W
BAMM    18.4N  89.3W   19.9N  91.4W   21.0N  93.3W   21.9N  95.5W
LBAR    20.1N  90.1W   23.0N  92.8W   26.2N  94.5W   29.3N  94.2W
SHIP        63KTS          76KTS          78KTS          77KTS
DSHP        37KTS          36KTS          38KTS          37KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.5N LONCUR =  82.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  16.0N LONM12 =  81.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  16.3N LONM24 =  80.3W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN




[thetruesms]

Both the 00Z GFS (new model) and ECMWF show a system that heads into Mexico south of Brownsville. So does NOGAPS. At least we are seeing some consensus from the global models so I would say a BOC/Mexico solution seems quite possible (maybe likely) at this point. Perhaps extreme southern Texas may be impacted. IF that were to verify, great news for those in the GOM in the US and the oil spill area.

This reminds me about something I was pondering earler: maybe we need to come up with some kind of naming convention for the parallel run of the GFS, as I'm sure we'll be looking at it until it becomes the operational version next month. We've already had a few instances of confusion in this thread about which GFS we're referring to. Perhaps something like GFSP?

[ROCK]

The EURO looks good and most logical track right now...Waiting for the GFDL and HWRF to come around. They are so persistant in taking this into the oil spill...

[KWT]

The ECM looks very logical to me as well, I see no reason why it won't come off, maybe its a little slow once again in what it does but the idea of it hitting S.Yucatan and tracking west and then lifting up to the NW/WNW somewhat.

My own feelings is that the ECM maybe a little too far south but the other models such as the HWRF is way too far east...

[petit_bois]

we still don't have a storm... confirmed closed center.
Once (if) this occurs the models will gain quite a bit of validity.

[ROCK]

we still don't have a storm... confirmed closed center.
Once (if) this occurs the models will gain quite a bit of validity.

true...... but EURO doesnt initialize with a storm or even a closed low......


KWT- I would think somewhere in the middle myself if this trof is as big and bad as they are saying.

[Dean4Storms]

Both the 00Z GFS (new model) and ECMWF show a system that heads into Mexico south of Brownsville. So does NOGAPS. At least we are seeing some consensus from the global models so I would say a BOC/Mexico solution seems quite possible (maybe likely) at this point. Perhaps extreme southern Texas may be impacted. IF that were to verify, great news for those in the GOM in the US and the oil spill area.

This reminds me about something I was pondering earler: maybe we need to come up with some kind of naming convention for the parallel run of the GFS, as I'm sure we'll be looking at it until it becomes the operational version next month. We've already had a few instances of confusion in this thread about which GFS we're referring to. Perhaps something like GFSP?

But then you will have those asking what the P stands for. How about GFS2, that about explains it and if it doesn't, you don't need to know anyway, LOL!

[JPmia]

Both the 00Z GFS (new model) and ECMWF show a system that heads into Mexico south of Brownsville. So does NOGAPS. At least we are seeing some consensus from the global models so I would say a BOC/Mexico solution seems quite possible (maybe likely) at this point. Perhaps extreme southern Texas may be impacted. IF that were to verify, great news for those in the GOM in the US and the oil spill area.

This reminds me about something I was pondering earler: maybe we need to come up with some kind of naming convention for the parallel run of the GFS, as I'm sure we'll be looking at it until it becomes the operational version next month. We've already had a few instances of confusion in this thread about which GFS we're referring to. Perhaps something like GFSP?

Bizarro GFS.

[Comanche]

what is the link to the GFS?

[Weatherfreak000]

I would just like to remind everyone in the central gulf onward....the stronger 93L can get the more likely itll more more northernly....and it does appear very near TD status.



If you western gulf people claim your EURO huggers than no doubt after Katrina i'm a GFDL hugger. It is consistently the only model sniffing out the toughest solutions IMO. So long as the GFDL shows it making the Central Gulf we should have NO Complacency, and anyone who lives in that region should know the EURO is generally west biased. It's still very early and no trend towards South Texas has developed by any means.

[clfenwi]

what is the link to the GFS?

Operational version:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml

"Experimental" version, slated to replace the operational version in July

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/index_carib.shtml

[southerngale]

I would just like to remind everyone in the central gulf onward....the stronger 93L can get the more likely itll more more northernly....and it does appear very near TD status.



If you western gulf people claim your EURO huggers than no doubt after Katrina i'm a GFDL hugger. It is consistently the only model sniffing out the toughest solutions IMO. So long as the GFDL shows it making the Central Gulf we should have NO Complacency, and anyone who lives in that region should know the EURO is generally west biased. It's still very early and no trend towards South Texas has developed by any means.

I believe there's been a few people who said they were "Euro huggers" - don't generalize everyone like that. Maybe most people, in all regions of the Gulf, favor the Euro solution because if it hits Northern Mexico or Deep South Texas (sorry guys down there), it avoids the oil slick.

Of course, with such a huge difference in model runs all along the GOM coast, everyone should be paying attention and nobody should be complacent.

[bigdan33]

The 12z gfs looks like it takes it into the florida panhandle but weak.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS continues to show a powerful late June trough digging into the United States in 3-5 days..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

The GFS has been very persistent with this scenario for several days now, and it is looking more and more likely that it might actually pan out. The big question though is will 93L be close enough to feel the weakness created by the trough and head N or NE into the central or northeastern gulf coast early next week, or will 93L be too far south (closer to/in the BOC) and miss the connection and then meander westward? The answer is yet to be known.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

For the sake of the spill, let's hope it stays south and west.

[Sabanic]

For the sake of the spill, let's hope it stays south and west.

Gotta say I am in complete agreement with ya on that one