ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[Parungo]

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invest_al942010.invest
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010062512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942010
AL, 94, 2010062418, , BEST, 0, 152N, 549W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 161N, 560W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010062506, , BEST, 0, 169N, 570W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010062512, , BEST, 0, 178N, 578W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

[cwachal]

here we go atl is going to get active here really fast we could have 2 named storms by Sunday night at this rate

[KWT]

This is the sort of system that quite possibly will develop when it heads northwards around the subtropical high in about 3-5 days time, would be short lived regardless I'd have thought.

[Bocadude85]

here we go atl is going to get active here really fast we could have 2 named storms by Sunday night at this rate

I think its going to take awhile for this one to develop.. it may have a chance in a few days once it gets away from the shear.

[Aquawind]

This is the sort of system that quite possibly will develop when it heads northwards around the subtropical high in about 3-5 days time, would be short lived regardless I'd have thought.

Agreed.. I don't expect it to stack with the ULL and it will have to get past the ULL and then possibly develop when it starts lifting out..

[johngaltfla]

Is it too late to withdraw that prediction for 31 named storms and change it to oh, like 50?

This one is in a good spot as stated above once the ULL lifts out. I can not even begin to think what August will look like.

[chzzdekr81]

If these two invests form into tropical storms before July starts, the season would start off just as the 2005 season did - 2 named storms in the first month of hurricane season.

[chzzdekr81]

Is it too late to withdraw that prediction for 31 named storms and change it to oh, like 50?

This one is in a good spot as stated above once the ULL lifts out. I can not even begin to think what August will look like.

Lets just be thankful we only have two invests right now and not two major hurricanes like in the EPAC.

[Frank2]

This is the sort of system that quite possibly will develop when it heads northwards around the subtropical high in about 3-5 days time, would be short lived regardless I'd have thought.

KWT,

The 00Z GFS had 94L moving northward around the high (as you said) as a weak system by early next week...

And, per 93L the entire broad circulation is still moving west at about 10 kts (perhaps a little less than), so the GFS might be right that both remain weak - so far the GFS has done a good job with 93L, bucking the trend of many other models earlier this week (that had 93L as a hurricane by now)...

Frank

[vacanechaser]

so far the GFS has done a good job with 93L, bucking the trend of many other models earlier this week (that had 93L as a hurricane by now)...

Frank

i dont remember that... not by this time... i think most ramped it up once into the gulf...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

Except for shear, everything else looks good

[Gustywind]

[lester]

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

963
ABNT20 KNHC 251750
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND
CAYMAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SYSTEM TO
DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM AT ANY TIME LATER TODAY OR
SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND REACH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[I-wall]

Except for shear, everything else looks good

What do the first two images show?

[HURAKAN]

Convergence and Divergence, look in the bottom of the graphs and you will see the names

[BigA]

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Up to 20%

[I-wall]

Convergence and Divergence, look in the bottom of the graphs and you will see the names

Is convergence where the winds split into different directions and divergence is where the winds come from different directions to the same point? At what level is the convergence/divergence, and what is the significance of it?

[HURAKAN]

Convergence and Divergence, look in the bottom of the graphs and you will see the names

Is convergence where the winds split into different directions and divergence is where the winds come from different directions to the same point? At what level is the convergence/divergence, and what is the significance of it?

Convergence or converge, is where winds come together at the surface, and divergence or diverge, is where winds separate at the upper levels, allowing the storm to "breath."

[I-wall]

Convergence and Divergence, look in the bottom of the graphs and you will see the names

Is convergence where the winds split into different directions and divergence is where the winds come from different directions to the same point? At what level is the convergence/divergence, and what is the significance of it?

Convergence or converge, is where winds come together at the surface, and divergence or diverge, is where winds separate at the upper levels, allowing the storm to "breath."

Thanks Hurakan