ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[eastcoastFL]

At this point it looks like an Old Mexico storm...looks like the trough moving in early next week should miss the system. This should also help keep the system over land for much of the next few days...keeping its intensity in check. If this pans out, this will be great news for the Gulf Coast.

Of course, the media will hype this up big time, even if the storm doesn't pass within 500 miles of the oil...they are already starting, even without this being a depression.

Darn, was looking for a little ts in florida this weekend.

Sorry...but it's a long season, so there will be ample opportunity for a TS.

For some reason, I do think this year will be like 2008...with a decent number of western Gulf systems. I think that's one of the analog years, right?

ALl the clouds and wind lately has been getting my hopes up

[x-y-no]

Whats all the stuff to the east? It looks interesting.

Less interesting than it was yesterday.

There's a weak wave at about 76W which has caught up with that convective blob. Yesterday, I was thinking there was a chance that would get going instead of 93L, but conditions are getting less conducive over time as 93L gets its act together.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Based on where the NHC places the Low it is on northen edge of the convection which leads me to beleive it's moving NW. Going to miss the Honduran coast.

Still new to finding lows within invests, might you bear with me in this question?

Studying the NHC link you reference, by engaging "fronts" and "lat/long", I see a vertical yellow line with 1006 (mb) at 17 and 82 outlined.

Is this the "Low" you reference as placed or must I put more parameters on (engaging the "low" box didn't pop up any marker)?

Thank you anyone for answering.

I could be wrong but I place the low whereever the NHC puts that "L" on the frontal overlay.

[Sanibel]

Could still threaten if it heads north and finds favorability.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

"I could be wrong but I place the low whereever the NHC puts that "L" on the frontal overlay"

Thanks HouTXmetro. That answers my question: check the "front" box and voila.

Merci.

[cwachal]

just to let everyone know 94L was just declared for the yellow circled storm system and a threat has been made

[Dean4Storms]

New Deep Convection popping right over the center.

[KWT]

Yep convection is developing with this system right now very close to the circulation, this will probably help with any LLC if its not quite closed yet.

[Aquawind]

New Deep Convection popping right over the center.

For a change.. Let's see if it persists. With all of the weak model runs until after the Yukatan nothing is expected to happen fast with 93L..

[bahamaswx]

Yep convection is developing with this system right now very close to the circulation, this will probably help with any LLC if its not quite closed yet.

If it's not, it should be by the time recon gets there.

[KWT]

Yeah, by the way recon is on its way thier so we will know one way or the other the state of this system in a few hours time...

[Clint_TX]

Alex likely to form today or tomorrow in Caribbean

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... bbean.html

[Bocadude85]

New Deep Convection popping right over the center.

Yup looking good

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

[JonathanBelles]

Buzz around here (with the NHC in house at the 38th Conference on Broadcast Meteorolgy) is that we will have a tropical depression/storm today/tonight. Feltgen, Beven, Landsea, Read (NHC), and Fugate (FEMA) will all be speaking in the next 2-3 hours, so I may have more information then.

[ronjon]

I believe the COC is near 17.2N-82.5W based on high res VIS or the northern edge of the deep convection. It so, its moved N-NW or NW the last 15 hours based on whether you use the SAB or NRL coordinates:

SAB 2345 UTC 15.7N-82.2W (N-NW movement)
NRL 0000 UTC 16N - 81.6W (NW movement)

Of course we won't know for sure until RCON verifies the COC and we get regular fixes. But it appears to be moving NW as NHC states.

[Category 5]

Looking better by the minute now, really flaring convection. I'll be shocked if we don't have TD-1 this evening.

[KWT]

Sounds about right Ronjon, there maybe a weak MLC to the south of the LLC but its hard to know, its all rather weak it has to be said but you never know!

[rockyman]

I believe the COC is near 17.2N-82.5W based on high res VIS or the northern edge of the deep convection. It so, its moved N-NW or NW the last 15 hours based on whether you use the SAB or NRL coordinates:

SAB 2345 UTC 15.7N-82.2W (N-NW movement)
NRL 0000 UTC 16N - 81.6W (NW movement)

Of course we won't know for sure until RCON verifies the COC and we get regular fixes. But it appears to be moving NW as NHC states.

I see that, too...if the center really is up above 17 (and not just an eddy), the models will likely shift north and/or northeast
PLUS, Honduras will not be an issue

[Dean4Storms]

It looks to be moving in a more NW direction to me and if you go by the last few coordinates given of the low.

[chzzdekr81]

It looks to be moving in a more NW direction to me and if you go by the last few coordinates given of the low.

It looks like it to me... I just don't see it hitting Mexico.