ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[ROCK]

man...still a draw...EURO vs GFDL / HWRF....

This is why a love hurricane season....

[Ivanhater]

man...still a draw...EURO vs GFDL / HWRF....

This is why a love hurricane season....

And this is just the 1st storm..if the forecast for 20+ is right, we have a long season ahead

[N2Storms]

[quote="ROCK"]man...still a draw...EURO vs GFDL / HWRF....

This is why a love hurricane season....[/quote]




Rock....I gotta go w / the Euro on this one also...it is so far south and I just don't see it getting lifted and shunted to the NE...I can see it taking a more NWly track towards the La/Tx border though...

[N2Storms]

[quote="Ivanhater"][quote="ROCK"]man...still a draw...EURO vs GFDL / HWRF....

This is why a love hurricane season....[/quote]

And this is just the 1st storm..if the forecast for 20+ is right, we have a long season ahead [/quote]
[quote][/quote]

It sure has helped to make what would've been an otherwise boring day a lot more interesting though...

[Weatherfreak000]

18z Dynamical...make up your mind!

If your following these dynamic models, I don't see why a Mexico landfall is at all the highest or more plausible solution.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro is way to far south and west this run imo.

[Nederlander]

will be interesting to see which camp verifies..

[Ivanhater]

will be interesting to see which camp verifies..

Yeah. Hopefully we get an upgrade today so the 00z models tonight will get some good data into it.

[southerngale]

A lot of people have been thinking Texas for an eventual landfall. I think Texas is the only state where none of the models take it.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF buries it in the southern BOC.

[Ivanhater]

Not buying the Euro right now.

[PTrackerLA]

Please please please go to Mexico. The northern Gulf coast can't handle this right now; it makes me sick to my stomach to even think of a storm surge anywhere affected by the spill.

[antonlsu]

A lot of people have been thinking Texas for an eventual landfall. I think Texas is the only state where none of the models take it.

Im perfectly fine with that!

[ronjon]

Looks like the BAMD shifted right (northward) toward La on the 18Z run. Don't know if its a trend - we shall see.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

ugh. not good. maybe the traverse over land will destroy this entirely. the idea of a slow moving, deepening storm over that spill makes me sick. west coast Florida doesn't want a storm going over it, that's for sure! so far our beaches have stayed clean, but if a storm gets in there, all bets are off that we can keep our pristine white sand beaches.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

actualy, a slow mover (<6kt) near the end of the run may shunt more easterly near the end of the week and be more affected by the trough. certainly don't want to see the models trending to the right any further.
in fact, let's see them do their pendulum thing and swing back west in the morning...with the images tonight being the furthest east we will see!

[petit_bois]

Please please please go to Mexico. The northern Gulf coast can't handle this right now; it makes me sick to my stomach to even think of a storm surge anywhere affected by the spill.

sad news is... It's inevitable.
We were talking last night and debating weather or not it might be a good thing to go ahead and get the oil out of the water... or do we just hope it all stays out there. it's a no win situation.

The oil is going to be out there for years... or until a storm dumps it on our beach. No win.

[Dean4Storms]

If they have to remove the cap to evacuate for a storm we'll have ungodly amounts of oil gushing for at least 5 days, before, during and for a few days after the storm. What a damn mess.

[GeneratorPower]

Not buying the Euro right now.

How many times have we had this discussion only to find out the EURO nailed it days in advance.

[SunnyThoughts]

It definitely is a mess. But it will take a couple days from what I understand to unhook everything and get the people off the platforms and those drilling the relief wells to safety. With some of these models showing a more northward path, im not sure they would take a chance on staying out there. Guess its a catch 22.