ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[BigA]

Found pressure of 1004.3 millibars, could even be a tad lower.

[Evil Jeremy]

IMO, this is either a depression right now or will be very soon. I think a special advisory could be issued tonight, maybe around the time the next TWO should be out.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

I still like an idea of an eventual landfall well south of Brownsville...around Tampico. Ridge to the north is just too strong and I do not see the models that turn Alex to be north being correct. Also, it already is far south in the Gulf of Honduras and is not gaining much latitude as it moves west-northwest.

[MWatkins]

I would expect a special statement soon, my guess is they will hold the upgrade off until later tonight at the earliest.

The problem facing the NHC is these large, sprawling systems take a while to consolidate. I don't think there's doubt this will ultimately become a depression, but the last thing they want to do is initiate advisories and watch it fall apart in 12 hours.

Plus, I would imagine the minute they do, I would guess crews will start disassembling equipment at the deepwater site. It takes 5 days to pull everything up, so the NHC has to be careful not to pull the trigger too early.

Either way, there's a lot of land and not much time over water left for this system...

However, both 93 and 94l are evolving from westward moving tropical waves...in June! What does that tell you about the next 3-4 months?

MW

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I still like an idea of an eventual landfall well south of Brownsville...around Tampico. Ridge to the north is just too strong and I do not see the models that turn Alex to be north being correct. Also, it already is far south in the Gulf of Honduras and is not gaining much latitude as it moves west-northwest.

I agree Chief!

[KWT]

Looks like a depression from me, at 30kts, outside chance of it going straight to 35kts!

Also I agree Greg, I'm not so sure its going to gain as much latitude as some think...

[ocala]

wxman, you have been very quiet, what is your take? Are you leaning more mex/texmex or central gulf coast at this moment in time?

I think the pertinent question is, is anyone still leaning central gulf coast at this moment??

Looking at all the models.
Third go to the eastern Florida panhandle.
Third go to LA.
Third go to Mexico.
This could go anywhere.

[x-y-no]

However, both 93 and 94l are evolving from westward moving tropical waves...in June! What does that tell you about the next 3-4 months?

MW

It tells us we're in for a wild ride, Mike.

But I think we kind of knew that already.

[bbadon]

I still like an idea of an eventual landfall well south of Brownsville...around Tampico. Ridge to the north is just too strong and I do not see the models that turn Alex to be north being correct. Also, it already is far south in the Gulf of Honduras and is not gaining much latitude as it moves west-northwest.

I agree Chief!

Not buying into the trough Greg?

[ConvergenceZone]

Every place I've read and heard also says a Mexico landfall due to the ridge. Bad news for Mexico, but good news for the oil spill vicinity...I haven't heard anyone saying anywhere east of the Texas/Mexican border.....


but I would put more trust with what the mets are saying here, than what the media says on TV....

[Dean4Storms]

A west wind was found and pressure 1004mb, don't see how they don't upgrade!

[thetruesms]

That last HDOB set sold it for me, I expect we'll have our first system on our hands.

[tolakram]

wxman, you have been very quiet, what is your take? Are you leaning more mex/texmex or central gulf coast at this moment in time?

I think the pertinent question is, is anyone still leaning central gulf coast at this moment??

Looking at all the models.
Third go to the eastern Florida panhandle.
Third go to LA.
Third go to Mexico.
This could go anywhere.

Most of the reliable models go south.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Mexico storm!

[WmE]

No doubt in my mind that it should be upgraded to a 30kts TD.

[Hurricane Cheese]

This guy is looking VERY impressive on satellite imagery this afternoon

[Weatherfreak000]

Let us also not forget we are in a La Nina type pattern here so troughiness is to be expected.

[jasons2k]

wxman, you have been very quiet, what is your take? Are you leaning more mex/texmex or central gulf coast at this moment in time?

I think the pertinent question is, is anyone still leaning central gulf coast at this moment??

Looking at all the models.
Third go to the eastern Florida panhandle.
Third go to LA.
Third go to Mexico.
This could go anywhere.

I'll echo the pro-mets that the models showing the NE swing are overestimating the trough and/or its influence on the cyclone. It's nothing surprising that they do so. It's the quality, not the quantity of models that one should pay attention to.

[CrazyC83]

No doubt in my mind that it should be upgraded to a 30kts TD.

SFMR supports upgrading to TS Alex right away.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

I still like an idea of an eventual landfall well south of Brownsville...around Tampico. Ridge to the north is just too strong and I do not see the models that turn Alex to be north being correct. Also, it already is far south in the Gulf of Honduras and is not gaining much latitude as it moves west-northwest.

I agree Chief!

Not buying into the trough Greg?

I really like the EURO solution which does not break the ridge down too much and drives the disturbance toward Mexico south of the border. It has been consistent with the solution since yesterday.