ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

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#1481 Postby KWT » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:10 pm

Yeah I think this will be a Mexicdo storm, but more on the north side of Mexico than south...the ECM doesn't develop it at all till it starts to move overland and thus is probably too far south in the first 48hrs...

I think the NHC probably deciding whether to go TD or Alex.
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#1482 Postby greg_kfdm_tv » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:11 pm

Certainly a tropical depression now based on recon.....could upgrade to Alex at any time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1483 Postby tailgater » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:13 pm

Lots of west winds of up to 20kts
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Re: Re:

#1484 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:13 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:With its satellite appearance, pressure and winds sustained over 35mph there has to be a west wind somewhere.


Even if there is a west wind, its not a depression IMO. It certainly doesn't have a well defined closed LLC.


Enough west winds for you yet? :D

All they had to do was head a little further south (think I said 30 miles or so)...now that they went down to 16N...we got winds from the west at 23 kts...that's pretty well defined.
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Re: Re:

#1485 Postby HurrMark » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:14 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
greg_kfdm_tv wrote:I still like an idea of an eventual landfall well south of Brownsville...around Tampico. Ridge to the north is just too strong and I do not see the models that turn Alex to be north being correct. Also, it already is far south in the Gulf of Honduras and is not gaining much latitude as it moves west-northwest.
I agree Chief!


Third the motion...likely Mexico bound.
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#1486 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:14 pm

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#1487 Postby BigA » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:14 pm

Wow, they found a whole slew of west winds when they went a bit south. No question now that this should be a classified system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1488 Postby tolakram » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:15 pm

Looks like the center was further west than they thought, so now it's time to turn around and make another run at it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1489 Postby TheBurn » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:15 pm

Oh my... it sure looks like it's happening!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Pretty impressive seeing both 93L/Alex and 94L in the shot, only 3.5 weeks into the season.

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Re: Re:

#1490 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:16 pm

Third the motion...likely Mexico bound.


Yea, it seems pretty unanimous regarding a Mexico landfall

Of couse once it forms, we will have the wobble wars starting.... :lol:
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1491 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:17 pm

HurrMark wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
greg_kfdm_tv wrote:I still like an idea of an eventual landfall well south of Brownsville...around Tampico. Ridge to the north is just too strong and I do not see the models that turn Alex to be north being correct. Also, it already is far south in the Gulf of Honduras and is not gaining much latitude as it moves west-northwest.
I agree Chief!


Third the motion...likely Mexico bound.


First landfall might even be in Belize.
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#1492 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:17 pm

I dont know if my eyes are deceiving me but it does look like 93L is slowly scooting northwest...but it's always hard to tell with these things.
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#1493 Postby KWT » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:19 pm

Yep looks a little south of what expected, brings credence to the ECM solution, though I think the 12z ECM was too far to the south in the end...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1494 Postby tolakram » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:20 pm

I'm a little shocked at just how many west winds where found and how much better this is looking.

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This is not a forecast but I don't want to be caught with my disclaimer down. ;)

Conditions down there are in record territory, I wonder just how fast this thing can develop?
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#1495 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:21 pm

Um...watch out Belize?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1496 Postby TheBurn » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:21 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1497 Postby Comanche » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:22 pm

tolakram wrote:I'm a little shocked at just how many west winds where found and how much better this is looking.

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This is not a forecast but I don't want to be caught with my disclaimer down. ;)

Conditions down there are in record territory, I wonder just how fast this thing can develop?


probably not as good as it could have if it were a little north, all that landmass south **should** have an impact on strengthening ability.
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Re:

#1498 Postby KWT » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:25 pm

RL3AO wrote:Um...watch out Belize?


Quite possible given the center appears to be only a little bit north of Houndras, though land fricition maybe giving a false indicator.

That being said I think it probably will lift out to the WNW/NW and it should hit S.Yucatan...
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#1499 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:27 pm

If the models haven't changed the NHC should not have any trouble putting this out as the seasons first tropical storm by 8PM. Even if they are not sure of the trough strength and timing they can start with warnings for the Yucatan then sweep the track up the Mexican coast to texas and beyond if necessary.
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#1500 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:28 pm

Once it crosses the land, it's not going to to have much time over water after that, so I don't expect a cane out of it. It could develop back into a tropical storm though again, even after crossing land.
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