ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Not buying the Euro right now.

How many times have we had this discussion only to find out the EURO nailed it days in advance.

You cant say the Euro "nailed it" when it to has not been consistent. The 12z run keeps it nearly due west the entire time this run, a couple hundred miles south of the 00z run. Look at what is happening now, the center looks to be north of where nearly all the models initialized it and is moving NW. South Texas maybe, but not this far south and west on the 12z euro run which is inconsistent with its previous runs. There will be a trough coming down weakening the ridge to a degree. There will not be a strong August ridge keeping it on such a southerly track.

[N2Storms]

[quote="GeneratorPower"][quote="Ivanhater"]Not buying the Euro right now.[/quote]

How many times have we had this discussion only to find out the EURO nailed it days in advance.[/quote]
[quote][/quote]



After reading many of the various NWS discussions it seems to me that almost all of them lend more credence to the Euro and Global Model solutions...given that and the track record of the Euro, I'm going to ride the Euro bandwagon

[KFDM Meteorologist]

EURO will be right, system so far south this has Mexico on it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[vaffie]

EURO will be right, system so far south this has Mexico on it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Considering that the EURO has had so many wildly different outcomes in the last few days, it will for sure be right for one of them.

[KWT]

Not buying the Euro right now.

How many times have we had this discussion only to find out the EURO nailed it days in advance.

Whilst I still think the ECM will be closer than the GFDL has been...it is almost certainly too far south, esp now we do have a developing system at last, whilst the ECM doesn't develop anything out to 24-36hrs and therefore it goes more west...I think if you assume it is forming, the ECM will be too far south.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not completely sold on either yet, I want to wait and see what plays out with the Conus trough next week and then just how much latitude this system gains now that it should strengthen.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If it doesn't consolidate down to a more compact storm, wouldn't the larger envelope be more susceptible to influence from teh approaching front? The storm may not get as strong as a more compact storm, but it could still strengthen overall and prove a worse demon for the Spill area than a small compact storm that stays on a more westerly path and misses the trough's influence.

[Ikester]

EURO will be right, system so far south this has Mexico on it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I respectfully disagree. I think Ivan has a point. While I do think there will be a trough digging down, I think it's a grand delusion to think it will clear the coast. The point being is the ridge may be overdone. I can remember 3 weeks ago when models were showing Houston having their first 100 degree day because of an August type ridge. It never materialized.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am not sold yet on the far south option either. While it is certainly possible, I think it is equally possible that the trough allows the storm to glide further northwards towards Texas or even the central Gulf Coast. This time of year it seems like the storms forming in the western Caribbean frequently tend to want to go right of the initial predictions (aka Cindy in 2005). It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the same type of thing happens this time too. IMO, I would say it is probably 50/50 right now between the two scenarios.

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[chzzdekr81]

18z Dynamical...make up your mind!

If your following these dynamic models, I don't see why a Mexico landfall is at all the highest or more plausible solution.

My thoughts exactly.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like TD 1 is enveloping all of the convection and IS HUGE. Sorta thinking that may push the Ridge a little. This storm is MASSIVE in size and I'm not sure if I have ever seen anything this big in the Atlantic basin outside of Hurricane Ike.

[Scorpion]

Agreed... reminds me of a typhoon.

[Aquawind]

Hopefully we get a good initialzation data in the 00Z models..

[KWT]

Those dynamic models are nearly all based off the GFS...which has a big habit of digging upper troughs too far south. The ECM can sometimes go the other way IMO...but thats why people are discounting the GFS model solutions for now because that really is an extreme trough for the time of year, possible but somewhat overdone IMO.

[mutley]

Looks like TD 1 is enveloping all of the convection and IS HUGE. Sorta thinking that may push the Ridge a little. This storm is MASSIVE in size and I'm not sure if I have ever seen anything this big in the Atlantic basin outside of Hurricane Ike.

This should be very interesting. I have been thinking that the dynamic models taking it to central gulf are seeing SOMETHING, but many of the pro mets here have voiced support for the Mexico landfall.

[petit_bois]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... t1best.gif

very anxious to see what initial line the NHC will take...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

"AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO."

[Ivanhater]

There is already a models page

[petit_bois]

With recon data collected... we can expect much more valid runs tonight.

[ROCK]

Those dynamic models are nearly all based off the GFS...which has a big habit of digging upper troughs too far south. The ECM can sometimes go the other way IMO...but thats why people are discounting the GFS model solutions for now because that really is an extreme trough for the time of year, possible but somewhat overdone IMO.

exactly...most all of them are based off the GFS...the TVCN is the difference between the GFDL and HWRF...we have a go for TS Alex before it hits the Yucatan....whats left will exit into the GOM then its a wait and see with this trof.....I will be looking at hints in the NE on how big and bad this trof is from the local NWS AFD's.....