ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[ROCK]

Size is IKE like I will give it that.....but when it tightens up those large feeder bands will draw in....

[bob rulz]

They're sure taking their time with this advisory.

I don't blame them though, they've got a lot of warnings to consider and probably a pretty lengthy discussion to write.

[HouTXmetro]

Hurricane or not, this thing is MASSIVE in size. IF it really is drifting under the upper level anti-cyclone I think it could reach strong TS status before landfall. Just my uneducated opinion.

[cycloneye]

When the first advisory is issued,lets not post it in this thread. As we do every year,any member can make an advisory thread.

[Ivanhater]

Uh oh

000
URNT15 KNHC 252155
1001.6mb

[Bad_Hurricane]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 252159
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
83.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION
WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

[StarmanHDB]

TD One just announced.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

[CrazyC83]

TD1 - 30 kt, 1004mb

[fogbreath]

Hurricane or not, this thing is MASSIVE in size. IF it really is drifting under the upper level anti-cyclone I think it could reach strong TS status before landfall. Just my uneducated opinion.

Indeed - I hope this thing goes into the Yucatan and knocks some of its growing cajones asunder

[ConvergenceZone]

When the first advisory is issued,lets not post it in this thread. As we do every year,any member can make an advisory thread.

Yikes, doesn't look like he listened to ya....

[artist]

I would expect a special statement soon, my guess is they will hold the upgrade off until later tonight at the earliest.

The problem facing the NHC is these large, sprawling systems take a while to consolidate. I don't think there's doubt this will ultimately become a depression, but the last thing they want to do is initiate advisories and watch it fall apart in 12 hours.

Plus, I would imagine the minute they do, I would guess crews will start disassembling equipment at the deepwater site. It takes 5 days to pull everything up, so the NHC has to be careful not to pull the trigger too early.

Either way, there's a lot of land and not much time over water left for this system...

However, both 93 and 94l are evolving from westward moving tropical waves...in June! What does that tell you about the next 3-4 months?

MW

good to see you back Mike! Your posts are always insightful. Will you be running with the hurricanes this year with Mark?

[Texas Snowman]

In the words of an old friend: Holy Crap!!!

I'm jumping aboard the bandwagon now.

Holy Carp! BUT unfortunately, it doesn't look like a fish and doesn't have anywhere or any way to fizzle unless it gets onshore and soon.

Wow, I can't believe how the sat presentation has changed today while I've been working. Didn't see anything from about 7 a.m. until now and the difference is amazing.

[ConvergenceZone]

Phew, okay it's moving faster than I thought. I feel better now.....I thought it was still "drifting"

[Aquawind]

It looks to be a big slow and wet system no matter the strength. Serious flooding either way for many. I am glad we have some land to help keep it in check hopefully. Nobody wants it to thread the needle up the channel..Way much potential beyond the Yukatan.

[Texas Snowman]

Lots of time, lot will change, but from that map, look out Corpus Christi and Port Aransas.

[SunnyThoughts]

Ivan was the 1001 mb from recon? Wonder if they received that info before declaring a TD. Might they have went straight to TS with that sort of reading?

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm assuming that track will bend to the west further out? I'm a bit shocked at the track. I thought it would be further into Mexico based upon what I've been reading and hearing.


All I can say is, if that track holds, it is not good news, because that keeps it over water much longer. Let's hope that once it emerges that a tropical storm is as strong as it gets.

[Texas Snowman]

From that trajectory, could the wind field possibly get the Texas coast involved in the oil spill?

[HurrMark]

Lots of time, lot will change, but from that map, look out Corpus Christi and Port Aransas.

A little further north than I thought it would be. Let us wait for the 0Z model runs...

[Ivanhater]

I'm assuming that track will bend to the west further out? I'm a bit shocked at the track. I thought it would be further into Mexico based upon what I've been reading and hearing.

Read the disco, they are blending to two groups of models.

Sunny yes that is from recon.