ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION
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- chzzdekr81
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
Texas Snowman wrote:
Lots of time, lot will change, but from that map, look out Corpus Christi and Port Aransas.
Based on that track, will the area of the Gulf that we are worried about have the so called dirty side or too far away ?
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- Comanche
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Re:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm assuming that track will bend to the west further out? I'm a bit shocked at the track. I thought it would be further into Mexico based upon what I've been reading and hearing.
All I can say is, if that track holds, it is not good news, because that keeps it over water much longer. Let's hope that once it emerges that a tropical storm is as strong as it gets.
The discussion said it was a blend of the models, so I imagine now witha center, the models will pick sides, I lean towards the GFS and Euro personally.
"AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO."
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
This is going to cause havoc for the gulf cleanup efforts. On the plus side, I can't wait to see how Jon Stewart will make fun of TD1s effect on the cleanup efforts.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
this is purely based on what im seeing via satellite and not on any other data.. but IMO guys and girls.. this is already Alex.. I am looking for an upgrad to TS at the next advisory.. 2 hours away.. the nhc might hold off, but based on what I am seeing, TD 1 is getting its act together quick with very favorable conditions.. If it doesnt speed up.. I think there is a good possibility of a Cat 1 before the Yuc.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm assuming that track will bend to the west further out? I'm a bit shocked at the track. I thought it would be further into Mexico based upon what I've been reading and hearing.
All I can say is, if that track holds, it is not good news, because that keeps it over water much longer. Let's hope that once it emerges that a tropical storm is as strong as it gets.
They probably are following the consensus which is a split obviously between the more easterly option...once this system continues to more west of thier track which I'm quite confident it will, you'll see it bend to the west with time...
On that track it'd probably have a shot at becoming a hurricane...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION
Bocadude85 wrote:Ivanhater wrote:Uh oh
000
URNT15 KNHC 252155
1001.6mb
Hmm pressure dropping nicely right now, hardly surprising given its close to land and its developing plenty of deep convection over a decent set-up aloft....
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
Okay thanks KWT.
So Mexico seems to be the assumption still....That's good.
So Mexico seems to be the assumption still....That's good.
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Re: Re:
Comanche wrote:
The discussion said it was a blend of the models, so I imagine now witha center, the models will pick sides, I lean towards the GFS and Euro personally.
"AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO."
AllI can say about this forecast is: I am holding my toungue for the sake of the young on the board. Many of you know my opinions about the NHC's "split the difference...consensus forecasts"...and this proves my point.
I guess I am just a pick a side type of guy.

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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:I think the NHC is underestimating the WCAR and its ability to bomb systems when the environment is favorable. Mark my words!
lol are you more impressed now Hurakan? what a difference 12 hours has made..
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
Nederlander wrote:this is purely based on what im seeing via satellite and not on any other data.. but IMO guys and girls.. this is already Alex.. I am looking for an upgrad to TS at the next advisory.. 2 hours away.. the nhc might hold off, but based on what I am seeing, TD 1 is getting its act together quick with very favorable conditions.. If it doesnt speed up.. I think there is a good possibility of a Cat 1 before the Yuc.
Well, as someone posted earlier, this is a broad system and sometimes...sometimes...they take a while to get their act together and consolidate (in some ways, Ike comes to mind since he was so massive and never really ramped up wind-speed wise like he was forecast to on his journey through the Gulf).
But I agree, at least from sat presentation, TD 1 does appear to be moving in that direction.
Another thing - purely unofficial speculation on my part - is this: if that current track (I realize it is a blend of model groups) is more northerly, Texas could be potentially looking at a hurricane middle of next week.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Re:
Air Force Met wrote:Comanche wrote:
The discussion said it was a blend of the models, so I imagine now witha center, the models will pick sides, I lean towards the GFS and Euro personally.
"AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO."
AllI can say about this forecast is: I am holding my toungue for the sake of the young on the board. Many of you know my opinions about the NHC's "split the difference...consensus forecasts"...and this proves my point.
I guess I am just a pick a side type of guy.
I think you need to be more flexible and realize, forecasts, as well as morals, are relative :-P
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:I think the NHC is underestimating the WCAR and its ability to bomb systems when the environment is favorable. Mark my words!
You're scaring me, and your prophetic words of doom are marked. Just kidding.
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Re: Re:
Nederlander wrote:HURAKAN wrote:I think the NHC is underestimating the WCAR and its ability to bomb systems when the environment is favorable. Mark my words!
lol are you more impressed now Hurakan? what a difference 12 hours has made..
You can say that. That's how the tropics work.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
could someone shed some light on why models arent projecting TD 1 to ramp up in the gulf.. I know SSTs are high.. what does the shear forecast look like.. (I know shear is difficult to forecast), but why is TD 1 (Alex to be), being held up after it crosses the Yuc?
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
If the front makes it down fast enough it may recurve away from Mex. and TX.
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I'm not sure conditions aloft are that amazing...but they don't have to be when you've got deep convection present and a system that is probably getting helped by land fricition somewhat to tighten up the southern side of the system...
Wouldn't shock me to see this get upto 45-50kts IF it doesn't track too much to the west.
Wouldn't shock me to see this get upto 45-50kts IF it doesn't track too much to the west.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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