ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

The high pressure looks pretty good

[HouTXmetro]

What's also amazing is that this system has plenty of moisture to work with in quadrants...don't think it will have to worry about dry air intrusion ANYTIME SOON.

[Bocadude85]

this is purely based on what im seeing via satellite and not on any other data.. but IMO guys and girls.. this is already Alex.. I am looking for an upgrad to TS at the next advisory.. 2 hours away.. the nhc might hold off, but based on what I am seeing, TD 1 is getting its act together quick with very favorable conditions.. If it doesnt speed up.. I think there is a good possibility of a Cat 1 before the Yuc.

Well, as someone posted earlier, this is a broad system and sometimes...sometimes...they take a while to get their act together and consolidate (in some ways, Ike comes to mind since he was so massive and never really ramped up wind-speed wise like he was forecast to on his journey through the Gulf).

But I agree, at least from sat presentation, TD 1 does appear to be moving in that direction.

Another thing - purely unofficial speculation on my part - is this: if that current track (I realize it is a blend of model groups) is more northerly, Texas could be potentially looking at a hurricane middle of next week.

Yes but Ike also spent a lot of time over Cuba which disrupted the core

[Portastorm]

(After viewing that NHC map) ... this is one Texan who wants to know how accurate is that school of thought is that if you're in the crosshairs of a tropical system this far out, you're safe?!

[Texas Snowman]

could someone shed some light on why models arent projecting TD 1 to ramp up in the gulf.. I know SSTs are high.. what does the shear forecast look like.. (I know shear is difficult to forecast), but why is TD 1 (Alex to be), being held up after it crosses the Yuc?

Well, if I remember correctly from previous storms, I think it has to do with the fact that the Yucatan Peninsula is as flat as a pancake. So there is little friction from the terrain to disrupt the circulation much.

[Nederlander]

I will say this, the future of this system could depend a lot on how much time it spends over mexico. It may cross the the largest portion of the Yuc (from SE to NW), rather than just clipping it to the East or crossing more the West and entering the BoC. Especially at this slow of speed, that could play a role in its organization early next week.

[HURAKAN]

beautiful system ...

[RL3AO]

Usually these big depressions take time strengthening since it takes time to consolidate everything.

[Aquawind]

The speed and motion they have in the forecast is a far cry what what we have seen. I would assume that is because it has oganized and maybe the land friction has helped that, but it is about to pick up some serious speed and direction changes and nothing about TD 1 thus far has been quick. I think it will actually be on the left side of the path for awhile at least.

[Texas Snowman]

I will say this, the future of this system could depend a lot on how much time it spends over mexico. It may cross the the largest portion of the Yuc (from SE to NW), rather than just clipping it to the East or crossing more the West and entering the BoC. Especially at this slow of speed, that could play a role in its organization early next week.

Not an exact match, but the current position and forecast track of TD 1 (knowing that a lot will change as models get a handle on this) is somewhat reminiscent of Hurricane Dolly in July 2008.

[HURAKAN]

Usually these big depressions take time strengthening since it takes time to consolidate everything.

But I have a hard time believing that a system in the WCAR with favorable atmospheric conditions will only go from 35 to 50 mph in 2 days. Lets see.

[HURAKAN]

[Nederlander]

I will say this, the future of this system could depend a lot on how much time it spends over mexico. It may cross the the largest portion of the Yuc (from SE to NW), rather than just clipping it to the East or crossing more the West and entering the BoC. Especially at this slow of speed, that could play a role in its organization early next week.

Not an exact match, but the current position and forecast track of TD 1 (knowing that a lot will change as models get a handle on this) is somewhat reminiscent of Hurricane Dolly in July 2008.

yeah i see what you are saying with relation to Dolly, but my thinking is that it will cross just north of belize or right on the border and travel NW or WNW across Mexico and possible coming entering the gulf on the far NW tip of the Yuc. Which means it will spend a decent amount of time over land.

[Texas Snowman]

LOL

And earlier today, we had a powerful Cat 5 in the EPAC. Yep, this season may be one for the books...

[LaBreeze]

53 years ago today, June 25, 1957 a tropical wave, which had moved across the Atlantic and the Caribbean, became a tropical depression. It crossed the Yucatan and stalled in the BOC where it began to gain strength - Hurricane Audrey was then born and made a beeline for LA/TX - striking on June 27th. I know that this current system is just forming and as of now, we are not sure of its future path and strength. I just found it to be a coincidence about the date and location.

[Texas Snowman]

53 years ago today, June 25, 1957 a tropical wave, which had moved across the Atlantic and the Caribbean, became a tropical depression. It crossed the Yucatan and stalled in the BOC where it began to gain strength - Hurricane Audrey was then born and made a beeline for LA/TX - striking on June 27th. I know that this current system is just forming and as of now, we are not sure of its future path and strength. I just found it to be a coincidence about the date and location.

I hope in a few days we do not need to play the Twilight Zone music for that observation...

[artist]

:roflmao:

ooops! lol Even over on the ghcc site I have been having images out of sync with the loops.

[Ivanhater]

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather. They seems to think it will track farther south, but just in case, they leave the door open farther north!!!

[Countrygirl911]

hi i live in southwest mississippi and was wondering when the next models come out and will they get a better handle on it now that a depression has been named and hopfully know which way it is going to go