Air Force Met wrote:Comanche wrote:
The discussion said it was a blend of the models, so I imagine now witha center, the models will pick sides, I lean towards the GFS and Euro personally.
"AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO."
AllI can say about this forecast is: I am holding my toungue for the sake of the young on the board. Many of you know my opinions about the NHC's "split the difference...consensus forecasts"...and this proves my point.
I guess I am just a pick a side type of guy.
AFM i have read enough of your post that i have a good idea of of what you think about the NHC's split the difference forecast. I would although be very interested in your opinion on where this system may be headed.