ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[LaBreeze]

Very interesting call from the GFS, the upper high just takes it far enough west to get it inland and then slides it up northwards, obviously if it doesn;t get far enough west...well then we all know what could happen with TD1...

Not liking that scenario, KWT.

[artist]

hopefully with the recon info maybe we will get a closer consensus on track with the models. That always makes a huge differences as well as the low closing itself off. So we have 2 things that should help the models once they ingest all this new info.

[lonelymike]

Very interesting call from the GFS, the upper high just takes it far enough west to get it inland and then slides it up northwards, obviously if it doesn;t get far enough west...well then we all know what could happen with TD1...

Not liking that scenario, KWT.

Seems like the GFS has Alex getting caught with the cold front and get swept as the front passes through the Gulf Coast.

[LaBreeze]

Very interesting call from the GFS, the upper high just takes it far enough west to get it inland and then slides it up northwards, obviously if it doesn;t get far enough west...well then we all know what could happen with TD1...

Not liking that scenario, KWT.

Seems like the GFS has Alex getting caught with the cold front and get swept as the front passes through the Gulf Coast.

This is sort of what one of our local mets said a few minutes ago. He is looking at the front making it down here - but swept where?

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

HWRF shifts west

[ROCK]

HWRF shifts west

That is an about face.....what about 500 miles....

[Ivanhater]

Yep Rock, one of the camps had to break down lol.

[ROCK]

now if we get the GFDL to bite then the EURO will have delivered the knock out blow..

[Ivanhater]

GFDL stays north lol


Looks like a Cat 2 around Grand Isle, LA

HOUR:108.0 LONG: -91.95 LAT: 27.85 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.75
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -92.03 LAT: 28.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.37
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -91.94 LAT: 29.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.58 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.31
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -91.37 LAT: 29.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.80 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.99

[cycloneye]

A shift west by GFDL but still north gulf coast.

349
WHXX04 KWBC 252320
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 25

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.7 83.1 305./ 5.0
6 16.8 83.9 278./ 8.3
12 17.4 85.3 291./14.4
18 18.1 86.4 305./12.8
24 18.4 87.7 283./12.3
30 18.6 88.5 282./ 8.2
36 19.0 89.3 296./ 8.7
42 19.4 90.2 293./ 9.1
48 19.5 90.5 295./ 3.2
54 19.9 90.5 357./ 3.7
60 20.4 90.7 337./ 5.3
66 21.2 90.8 357./ 8.2
72 22.2 90.7 6./10.2
78 23.0 90.8 347./ 7.8
84 23.9 91.1 343./ 9.7
90 25.0 91.3 349./11.2
96 26.1 91.5 351./11.0
102 27.0 91.6 352./ 8.3
108 27.9 91.9 340./ 9.3
114 28.7 92.0 355./ 8.5
120 29.3 91.9 9./ 6.0
126 30.0 91.4 41./ 8.2

[KWT]

I think the fact that the HWRF also has flipped is very telling, I just can't see the GFDL solution occuring unless the upper trough is even stronger then the GFS has been calling for...

Its quite obvious IMO the NHC will probably shift thier track southwards a little next advisory.

[HouTXmetro]

That's one hell of a shift by the HWRF!

[South Texas Storms]

does the new HWRF have the new recon data in it?

[KWT]

FWIW I think perhaps an even bigger story from the HWRF is it has a solid category-1....at the Yucatan landfall!!

Given conditions aloft do seem to have shifted and the system is bursting, whilst I think its too high, the general trend of strengthening it at a fair clip isn't that outlandish!

[Ivanhater]

GFDL

[tolakram]

Seems to me this is obviously a timing issue. If it crosses quickly it will go tex/mex, otherwise it may stall and eventually move more north. Personally I think tex/mex is the right track but we'll see.

[clfenwi]

does the new HWRF have the new recon data in it?

The initialization time was 18Z, which was before recon was in the storm, so if the model does ingest recon data, this run would not have it.

I may be behind the times on this point, but I don't think it gets fed the recon data. Surveillance data (upper-air observations from the Gulfstream Jet), yes, definitely, but I'm not sure about recon.

[dizzyfish]

I know I'm not gonna make this sound correct but here goes...

Local met showed the following scenario (time frame was this weekend I think) TD1 in the gulf north of the Yucatan and then showed a "front" dropping down and a low forming just south of the Florida panhandle.

Is that low from the "front" possibly what the models see as TD1 making the right hand turn?

Hope that made sense. lol

[South Texas Storms]

does the new HWRF have the new recon data in it?

The initialization time was 18Z, which was before recon was in the storm, so if the model does ingest recon data, this run would not have it.

I may be behind the times on this point, but I don't think it gets fed the recon data. Surveillance data (upper-air observations from the Gulfstream Jet), yes, definitely, but I'm not sure about recon.

oh ok thanks. do you know which models have the recon data put in them?