ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

I am surprised that there are no warnings out for Belize. Hmm...

I'm pretty sure it'll cime next advisory, it surely has to because it wouldn't take much of a south path compared to what is expected to get this over Belize...

Yeah I'm fully expecting Alex sooner rather then later, they may well do it next advisory.

[wzrgirl1]

I was right on that special advisory. Just came out and put tropical storm warnings up for Belize.

[cycloneye]

I am surprised that there are no warnings out for Belize. Hmm...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.

[jlauderdal]

My track is a good bit faster across the Gulf and farther left, taking it inland about 110 miles south of Brownsville Wednesday late afternoon as a 70 mph TS. I don't buy the big slowdown and compromise track. It's guaranteed to be wrong. Will probably even track left of my track.

I liked that idea 4 days ago as I posted on the board, no way is this thing going to smash that ridge, its going to ride into Mexico as a TS or maybe low end Hurricane.

Funny how amped up people are and its not even July 1. That oil rig is going to be in serious jeopardy sometime in the next 60 days, not from this one but something much stronger, the gulf has been consistently under siege from very strong systems the last number of years and this year is looking to be very active so there is every reason to believe the gulf sees at least one major this season. Lets hope I'm wrong because all of that equipment has to go someplace and it could easily be damaged in a big major hurricane.

[Macrocane]

So it finally developed, it's amazing how much it gained organization in the last 24 hours, the outer bands are already producing rains in El Salvador. It kind of reminds me of 2008 TD 16.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Still a TD but they can still upgrade to TS Alex before 11 PM.

AL, 01, 2010062600, , BEST, 0, 166N, 839W, 30, 1004, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak.

25/2345 UTC 16.7N 84.4W T2.0/2.0 01L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[HURAKAN]

Boom boom pow!!

[Cryomaniac]

"Already, the hurricane center has predicted that the low-pressure system has an 80 percent chance of becoming a hurricane in the next 48 hours as it moves toward the Yucatán Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico."

Already the media is overplaying it... lol

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0625/Gulf-oil-spill-Will-a-hurricane-throw-off-efforts-at-the-well

Regardless of what it does or doesn't become, it's worth watching. Of course, it's not worth creating panic over. Yet =/.

[clfenwi]

TAFB's Dvorak estimate was 3.0. This ought to be Alex on the next advisory.

[KWT]

"Already, the hurricane center has predicted that the low-pressure system has an 80 percent chance of becoming a hurricane in the next 48 hours as it moves toward the Yucatán Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico."

Already the media is overplaying it... lol

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0625/Gulf-oil-spill-Will-a-hurricane-throw-off-efforts-at-the-well

Good to see that the development percentage is being used now for forecasting hurricanes, jeez the media should learn how to read!

clfenwi, SSD dvorak still 2.0, but they may well go with that 3.0 given the convection really is bursting strongly over the TD1's convection.

[Dean4Storms]

TAFB's Dvorak estimate was 3.0. This ought to be Alex on the next advisory.

Agree, between the blowup of convection and the fact it was borderline already it has to get upgraded by 11pm IMO

[johngaltfla]

OK, so 31 is looking better now.

But if this becomes Alex, my question is for the Pros (nothing personal amateurs):

If the heavy storm activity forms east of the center over the next 24 hours, does that not portend a more NW track over the next 72 hours? Just curious because I think this storm does tend to be building a heavier CDO east of the LLC which appears to be the case. Of course from Sat pics, that is hard to tell what is really happening, but for the sake of this discussion AND MY QUESTIONS ONLY gang, wouldn't a heavier eastern wall pull the storm on the more northern path considering the lack of steering currents?

[KWT]

TAFB's Dvorak estimate was 3.0. This ought to be Alex on the next advisory.

Agree, between the blowup of convection and the fact it was borderline already it has to get upgraded by 11pm IMO

Whilst the SSD is 2.0, I have to agree that 3.0 looks closer to the mark at the moment and I think the NHC will probably go to 35kts next advisory.

[StarmanHDB]

"Already, the hurricane center has predicted that the low-pressure system has an 80 percent chance of becoming a hurricane in the next 48 hours as it moves toward the Yucatán Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico."

Already the media is overplaying it... lol

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0625/Gulf-oil-spill-Will-a-hurricane-throw-off-efforts-at-the-well

WOW! They're not overplaying it. Rather, they published the wrong information! My high school journalism teacher would've given me an instant "F" for that one! Evidently, the Christian Science Monitor's science editor does not know the steps of cyclogenesis! Low pressure system straight to hurricane? WTF! Bad editor!

[lrak]

Wow this thing covers a lot of real estate. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

It looks like the entire Western Caribbean is turning. What if that happens in the Gulf, could a Mexico hurricane's currents drag some oil towards the Texas coast? Maybe a hit around 22N 98W.

[Dean4Storms]

OK, so 31 is looking better now.

But if this becomes Alex, my question is for the Pros (nothing personal amateurs):

If the heavy storm activity forms east of the center over the next 24 hours, does that not portend a more NW track over the next 72 hours? Just curious because I think this storm does tend to be building a heavier CDO east of the LLC which appears to be the case. Of course from Sat pics, that is hard to tell what is really happening, but for the sake of this discussion AND MY QUESTIONS ONLY gang, wouldn't a heavier eastern wall pull the storm on the more northern path considering the lack of steering currents?

There's a pretty good ridge steering it on its current path and unless it deepened a lot I don't think it turns more northerly due to convection right now.

[clfenwi]

"Already, the hurricane center has predicted that the low-pressure system has an 80 percent chance of becoming a hurricane in the next 48 hours as it moves toward the Yucatán Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico."

Already the media is overplaying it... lol

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0625/Gulf-oil-spill-Will-a-hurricane-throw-off-efforts-at-the-well

Good to see that the development percentage is being used now for forecasting hurricanes, jeez the media should learn how to read!

clfenwi, SSD dvorak still 2.0, but they may well go with that 3.0 given the convection really is bursting strongly over the TD1's convection.

Two things on the estimate from SSD:

- Its estimated position differed from the TAFB estimate by about 30 nautical miles (Best track was closer to TAFB's estimate). That may have tripped their number down.

- As I mentioned earlier, their 18Z estimate was 1.0. By rule, estimates can't go up more than 1.0 in six hours. They may have allowed to constrain their estimate in accordance with that rule.

Personally, I was expecting to see 2.5 from TAFB. 3.0 was a surprise.

[KWT]

Yeah, FWIW raw numbers are up around 2.7-2.9 generally in the last few hours so I'd suspect they will upgrade to Alex, esp given winds weren't that far off from TS status before TD1 was upgraded.

[cycloneye]

The estimated position is marked at image.