ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[KWT]

does the new HWRF have the new recon data in it?

The initialization time was 18Z, which was before recon was in the storm, so if the model does ingest recon data, this run would not have it.

I may be behind the times on this point, but I don't think it gets fed the recon data. Surveillance data (upper-air observations from the Gulfstream Jet), yes, definitely, but I'm not sure about recon.

Yeah it won't have recon data in it, not yet anyway though it may come into play for the 0z runs possibly.

By the way we shouldn't totally discount the GFDL...remember a certain storm starting with K that dived SW and the GFDL was the only one to call it...

[clfenwi]

does the new HWRF have the new recon data in it?

The initialization time was 18Z, which was before recon was in the storm, so if the model does ingest recon data, this run would not have it.

I may be behind the times on this point, but I don't think it gets fed the recon data. Surveillance data (upper-air observations from the Gulfstream Jet), yes, definitely, but I'm not sure about recon.

oh ok thanks. do you know which models have the recon data put in them?

Again, I may be behind the times on this point and this answer is low confidence compared to just about any other answer I give.

I'm pretty sure that none of the global models ingest recon data as they don't have the resolution to properly handle it. I'm doing a bit of crash research on the latest implementations of the GFDL and HWRF to check the accuracy of my answer to your original question.

[deltadog03]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

Its the NAM, I know...BUT IF that is right **IF** then this sucker could explode in the gom with an anticyclone parked on top of it....

[BigA]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_200_084l.gif

Its the NAM, I know...BUT IF that is right **IF** then this sucker could explode in the gom with an anticyclone parked on top of it....

We know that the NAM is supbar on tropical cyclones, but is it good at all at predicting upper level highs?

[cycloneye]

00z BAMS

8
WHXX01 KWBC 260028
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (AL012010) 20100626 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100626 0000 100626 1200 100627 0000 100627 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 83.9W 17.7N 86.0W 19.0N 87.8W 20.2N 89.6W
BAMD 16.6N 83.9W 17.1N 85.9W 17.9N 87.8W 18.7N 89.4W
BAMM 16.6N 83.9W 17.4N 85.9W 18.2N 87.8W 19.2N 89.6W
LBAR 16.6N 83.9W 17.1N 86.0W 18.1N 88.1W 19.2N 90.1W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100628 0000 100629 0000 100630 0000 100701 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.4N 91.0W 23.3N 93.3W 24.2N 95.1W 24.3N 96.5W
BAMD 19.6N 90.7W 21.1N 92.6W 22.2N 95.0W 23.0N 97.3W
BAMM 20.4N 91.0W 21.8N 93.0W 22.8N 95.1W 23.1N 97.2W
LBAR 20.6N 91.9W 23.9N 94.2W 27.7N 95.9W 31.6N 94.9W
SHIP 64KTS 73KTS 77KTS 75KTS
DSHP 36KTS 45KTS 48KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 83.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 82.5W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 81.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[South Texas Storms]

where are the 00z bams models sending TD 1?

[artist]

oh ok thanks. do you know which models have the recon data put in them?

Again, I may be behind the times on this point and this answer is low confidence compared to just about any other answer I give.I'm pretty sure that none of the global models ingest recon data as they don't have the resolution to properly handle it. I'm doing a bit of crash research on the latest implementations of the GFDL and HWRF to check the accuracy of my answer to your original question.

once recon has been in there, there is a center location that they can now feed it, thus it helps with the models. That is what I meant by my statement. True, there are upper air obs from other flights, but recon can give an accurate fix for initialization. i don't know but do they not also feed the strength, etc. into them as well?

[cycloneye]

[Dean4Storms]

Does look to be moving about 300, think NHC got the direction nailed.

[Nederlander]

wow.. that 'spaghetti' chart has about a 180 degree cone of uncertainty..

[KWT]

Does look to be moving about 300, think NHC got the direction nailed.

Tough to call without Vis.imagery, I'm pretty sure the center will wobble about in that deep convection.

Anyway the GFDL is the stark outlier right now...will be interesting to see if the 0z HWRF stays further south as it adjusted or whether it goes back again to a more northerly option.

ps, every last degree of latitude makes a difference given the way the Mexico/Yucatan coastline curves.

[cycloneye]

Here is a better graphic showing all the tracks.

[clfenwi]

oh ok thanks. do you know which models have the recon data put in them?

Again, I may be behind the times on this point and this answer is low confidence compared to just about any other answer I give.I'm pretty sure that none of the global models ingest recon data as they don't have the resolution to properly handle it. I'm doing a bit of crash research on the latest implementations of the GFDL and HWRF to check the accuracy of my answer to your original question.

once recon has been in there, there is a center location that they can now feed it, thus it helps with the models. That is what I meant by my statement. True, there are upper air obs from other flights, but recon can give an accurate fix for initialization. i don't know but do they not also feed the strength, etc. into them as well?

Yeah, recon helps the NHC establish the best track position. For models that get spoon-fed the position/intensity of the storm (such as the BAM suite and SHIPS), the position given is from best track. (Intensity is similarly derived from recon, when available.)

I had interpreted the question a bit differently from the way you meant. I thought you were asking about raw observations being fed directly to the model. From what I've come across so far, there is a plan to have the parallel (experimental) HWRF ingest Doppler radar data directly from recon. Not clear whether that's actually a go for this season, however.

[KWT]

Yeah cycloneye that really does show just how much of anoutlier the GFDL is at the moment, I have to think the NHC will shift SW unless a big shift NE occurs with the 0z runs.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, GFS went west and all its models that run off it followed suit.

[KWT]

Apart from the GFDL which refuses, then again the GFDL does tend to be stubborn in changing its solutions I've noticed.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I think it is still a couple of days to early to try and pinpoint where TD 1 might end up going. It is going to come down to how much the ridge breaks down over the north gulf and how far south, if it does at all, the trough digs. Think by sunday we should have a much better idea as we will be able to see how strong the trough is and how much progress it is making southwards. Not going to get caught up in the west/east debates just yet Of course we all know by tomorrow morning all the models will have completely flip-flopped anyway.

[Air Force Met]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_200_084l.gif

Its the NAM, I know...BUT IF that is right **IF** then this sucker could explode in the gom with an anticyclone parked on top of it....

I've been wondering why the intensity forecasts have been so low for the last couple of days. I also don't agree with the current forecast for a weak TS at day 5 from the NHC. I think conditions will be a lot more favorable than they do. I think the problem lies in the fact the models were not developing a system...and thus were not placing the high in the right place. With a developed system...the high will be more likely be in a favorable position.

[perk]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_200_084l.gif

Its the NAM, I know...BUT IF that is right **IF** then this sucker could explode in the gom with an anticyclone parked on top of it....

I've been wondering why the intensity forecasts have been so low for the last couple of days. I also don't agree with the current forecast for a weak TS at day 5 from the NHC. I think conditions will be a lot more favorable than they do. I think the problem lies in the fact the models were not developing a system...and thus were not placing the high in the right place. With a developed system...the high will be more likely be in a favorable position.

AFM can you share any early thoughts on the track.

[Dean4Storms]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_200_084l.gif

Its the NAM, I know...BUT IF that is right **IF** then this sucker could explode in the gom with an anticyclone parked on top of it....

I've been wondering why the intensity forecasts have been so low for the last couple of days. I also don't agree with the current forecast for a weak TS at day 5 from the NHC. I think conditions will be a lot more favorable than they do. I think the problem lies in the fact the models were not developing a system...and thus were not placing the high in the right place. With a developed system...the high will be more likely be in a favorable position.

You don't think with the CONUS trough digging into the south that the UL winds don't pick up from the SW?