ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt01L.html

Code: Select all

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  26 JUN 2010    Time :   001500 UTC
      Lat :   16:37:09 N     Lon :   83:50:10 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                2.2 /1007.4mb/ 32.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                2.2     2.4     2.8

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.0mb

 Center Temp : -74.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -65.5C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC     
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   



[Sean in New Orleans]

Hello everyone. Nice to see you again this year. Errr....Texas, but, it's so early. Biggest concern is I'm here so early this year. Not a good sign. And we have a Cat. 5 in the Pacific! Wow. This system is so big for being so early. I'm very impressed by the size. Curious to see the new track at 10:00CST. We have oil this year.

[leanne_uk]

Wow what a difference 8 hours makes I am totally in shock.

Cant really add anything more to what is being said already but I truely did not think we would get the TD1 till tomorrow. Just shows how quickly things can and do change.

[Buck]

The core looks like it is starting to consolidate more.

[Texas Snowman]

"Already, the hurricane center has predicted that the low-pressure system has an 80 percent chance of becoming a hurricane in the next 48 hours as it moves toward the Yucatán Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico."

Already the media is overplaying it... lol

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0625/Gulf-oil-spill-Will-a-hurricane-throw-off-efforts-at-the-well

Regardless of what it does or doesn't become, it's worth watching. Of course, it's not worth creating panic over. Yet =/.

I don't think the media is trying to create panic. It's just that this isn't your ordinary hurricane season with the idiotic oil spill going on in the Gulf.

ANY tropical system coming close to the spill zone is going to get plenty of attention...and perhaps deservedly so given the situation.

IMO, certainly not just going to be a meterologically-based season (more so than usual) so get used to it.

[StarmanHDB]

Other than the current lack of an eye, it looks like a perfect buzzsaw!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg

[A1A]

Which one of these is the European model??

[Dean4Storms]

Which one of these is the European model??

None of those.

[ozonepete]

Which one of these is the European model??

None of them, as Dean4storms said. But the UKM is the United Kingdom Meteorological model, i.e. the British one.

[Nederlander]

for future reference to new people on here, please refer to the model thread for model analysis.. but here is the EURO for whoever wanted it..

[GeneratorPower]

for future reference to new people on here, please refer to the model thread for model analysis.. but here is the EURO for whoever wanted it..

Note: This appears to be yesterday's 00z run. The new one will be out in a few hours.

[ROCK]

for future reference to new people on here, please refer to the model thread for model analysis.. but here is the EURO for whoever wanted it..

Note: This appears to be yesterday's 00z run. The new one will be out in a few hours.

1:45am CDT......I dont see it changing much...maybe a few miles closer to Brownsville...JMO

[CrazyC83]

They might wait for Recon to upgrade to Alex - i.e. at the 2 am intermediate.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My forcast. ased on wind speeds and IR satilite resembelence.

0 Hours-TD-35MPH
6 Hours-TS-40MPH
12 Hours-TS-50MPH
(Landfall in the Yucatan-50MPH)
24 Hours-TS-45MPH,inland
48 Hours-TS-40MPH,over water
72 Hours-TS-50MPH
96 Hours-TS-60MPH
120 Hours-TS-70MPH

The storm will encounter little to no shear and WARM waters.

[GulfStormSignals]

We need RAIN badly on the Gulf Coast of Texas, but not 42" all in one day. I am hoping it stays a TD and brings us some rain, not a full blown H that spreads all that oil further inland due to storm surge! Does anyone know what that oil does to the water temperature?? So this first H, if it becomes that, and goes towards LA and AL coasts will be called a "Petrolicane"?? I'm just sayin...

[Ntxwx]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


0 Hours-TD-35MPH
6 Hours-TS-35MPH
12 Hours-TS-40MPH
(Landfall in the Yucatan-45MPH)
24 Hours-TS-40MPH,inland
48 Hours-TS-45MPH,over water
72 Hours-TS-50MPH
96 Hours-TS-60MPH
120 Hours-TS-75-85MPH

[GulfStormSignals]

BTW..I am glad to be back on STORM2K....I missed everyone! Thanks to FB for finding my way back!!

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive storms over Central America

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


0 Hours-TD-35MPH
6 Hours-TS-35MPH
12 Hours-TS-40MPH
(Landfall in the Yucatan-45MPH)
24 Hours-TS-40MPH,inland
48 Hours-TS-45MPH,over water
72 Hours-TS-50MPH
96 Hours-TS-60MPH
120 Hours-TS-75-85MPH

Did you get the Hour-Strength-WInd idea from me?

[cycloneye]