Caribbean - Central America Weather

[BZSTORM]

On the Placencia peninsula today. So far its pretty calm here a few squalls but nothing major. Around 5pm some strong gusting winds which blew a few light weight marquee tents over on the beach in Placencia. Distant thunder so far.
FYI -this is the BZ Hydro dept weather discussion this evening.

NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE
FORECAST DISCUSSION DATE: FRIDAY 25TH JUNE 2010 (EVENING)

AT 6:00 PM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ONE FORMED ABOUT 273MILES EAST BY SOUTH OF HALF MOON CAYE. THE DEPRESSION WAS CENTERED NEAR LAT 16.5N AND LONG 83.5W. TD #01 WAS HEADING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10MPH WITH MAXIMUM, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE STANDS AT 1004MB. TD #01 IS FORECAST TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA, EASTER GUATEMALA , MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY.

RADAR OBS SHOWS THAT MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS AROUND 0100Z. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST ON WEATHER AT THIS TIME. GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DECLARE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 36HRS TIME.

ANTICYCLONE IS OVER BELIZE AND THIS GIVING GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHEN. WINDS SHEAR REMAINS VERY SMALL. THE SYSTEM IS ANY WHERE THE SEA SURFACE TEMP IS VERY WARM.

WEATHER CONDITION WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48HRS.

[cycloneye]

On the Placencia peninsula today. So far its pretty calm here a few squalls but nothing major. Around 5pm some strong gusting winds which blew a few light weight marquee tents over on the beach in Placencia. Distant thunder so far.
FYI -this is the BZ Hydro dept weather discussion this evening.

NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE
FORECAST DISCUSSION DATE: FRIDAY 25TH JUNE 2010 (EVENING)

AT 6:00 PM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ONE FORMED ABOUT 273MILES EAST BY SOUTH OF HALF MOON CAYE. THE DEPRESSION WAS CENTERED NEAR LAT 16.5N AND LONG 83.5W. TD #01 WAS HEADING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10MPH WITH MAXIMUM, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE STANDS AT 1004MB. TD #01 IS FORECAST TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA, EASTER GUATEMALA , MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY.

RADAR OBS SHOWS THAT MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS AROUND 0100Z. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST ON WEATHER AT THIS TIME. GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DECLARE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 36HRS TIME.

ANTICYCLONE IS OVER BELIZE AND THIS GIVING GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHEN. WINDS SHEAR REMAINS VERY SMALL. THE SYSTEM IS ANY WHERE THE SEA SURFACE TEMP IS VERY WARM.

WEATHER CONDITION WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48HRS.

Welcome to the thread for all of us who live in the Caribbean and Central America. Stay safe there and keep us informed.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Well,the sun came out this morning,but lets see how much it will last.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST SAT JUN 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...AS A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWEST AND DRIER AND MORE
STABLE MOVES IN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE TUTT
LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...TO ENHANCE CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS THE LOW LEVEL STEERING WIND
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE UPPER LOW AND BAND OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TO PULL RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
ONE ADDITIONAL DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION...OPTED TO REDUCE POPS A BIT FOR TODAY AND
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS TUTT LOW TO OUR NORTH
IS PUSHING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INTO
A SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE POSITION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO TODAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO VERY
SATURATED SOILS...SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND
TODAY...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY AS WE
GO THROUGH THE DAY.

ONCE THE TUTT LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY
AND THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF PUERTO RICO...A DROP IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER...ALONG WITH A REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...
AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OF 8-10KFT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 26/15Z...EXCEPT
FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
26/15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST 26/22Z...MORE FREQUENT
MVFR...OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER TJMZ AND
TJPS.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Alex forms this morning...
000
WTNT31 KNHC 260847
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 84.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX CONSOLIDATES.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE
CENTER OF ALEX REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

From a correspondant of Belize
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/belize.shtml
- - Belize - -
- TS Alex Approaching Belize Coast & Caye Caulker...
By Barry Beer <barry at cayecaulkerweather.com>
Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2010 03:03:05 -0600

Well, the first Tropical Storm of the season is approaching the coast of Belize. The 0500 UTC report just came they've upgraded the TD to Tropical Storm Alex...
So far, we've had wind and rain coming from the north with a good squall soaking the island last evening, just as the festivities were getting underway for the Caye Caulker Lobster Fest.
Right now, winds are light from the N and NNW averaging 6 mph with light rain. The barometer is is falling at 1007.9 mb. Recent sat images indicate intense thunderstorm activity to the east... BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES...
More news on Saturday...

[Gustywind]

Looking at the radar of Meteo-France a nice round of showers is moving quickly from the south in direction of Guadeloupe...

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 261200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

CORRECTED TO CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM ALEX

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALEX...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ALEX ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[BZSTORM]

Well its currently 6.50am here on the Placencia peninsula, BZ weather dept is advising that TS winds will possible by affecting the cayes in the north this afternoon. The Placencia Lobsterfest is going to go ahead with the fishing tournament postponed till Sunday when system should be making landfall in the North Belize or Chetumal - NEMO is advising no boats on water unless absolutely necessary. The are flood warnings for Corazol district in effect. They are advising that everywehere from Belize City North to Mexico could experience TS winds this evening. But for the South we are advised that we may have occasional high gusts and thuderstorms this afternoon & Tonight . Steady heavy rain has been coming down since 4am on the penisula, there is little to no wind at thsi current time.

[Gustywind]

Well its currently 6.50am here on the Placencia peninsula, BZ weather dept is advising that TS winds will possible by affecting the cayes in the north this afternoon. The Placencia Lobsterfest is going to go ahead with the fishing tournament postponed till Sunday when system should be making landfall in the North Belize or Chetumal - NEMO is advising no boats on water unless absolutely necessary. The are flood warnings for Corazol district in effect. They are advising that everywehere from Belize City North to Mexico could experience TS winds this evening. But for the South we are advised that we may have occasional high gusts and thuderstorms this afternoon & Tonight . Steady heavy rain has been coming down since 4am on the penisula, there is little to no wind at thsi current time.

Thanks for this precious info my friend ! and to keep us informed. Stay safe and dry.

[cycloneye]

Cozumel cam

http://www.cozumelinsider.com/WEBCAM

Belize cam

[msbee]

On the Placencia peninsula today. So far its pretty calm here a few squalls but nothing major. Around 5pm some strong gusting winds which blew a few light weight marquee tents over on the beach in Placencia. Distant thunder so far.
FYI -this is the BZ Hydro dept weather discussion this evening.

NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE
FORECAST DISCUSSION DATE: FRIDAY 25TH JUNE 2010 (EVENING)

AT 6:00 PM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ONE FORMED ABOUT 273MILES EAST BY SOUTH OF HALF MOON CAYE. THE DEPRESSION WAS CENTERED NEAR LAT 16.5N AND LONG 83.5W. TD #01 WAS HEADING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10MPH WITH MAXIMUM, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE STANDS AT 1004MB. TD #01 IS FORECAST TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA, EASTER GUATEMALA , MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY.

RADAR OBS SHOWS THAT MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS AROUND 0100Z. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST ON WEATHER AT THIS TIME. GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DECLARE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 36HRS TIME.

ANTICYCLONE IS OVER BELIZE AND THIS GIVING GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHEN. WINDS SHEAR REMAINS VERY SMALL. THE SYSTEM IS ANY WHERE THE SEA SURFACE TEMP IS VERY WARM.

WEATHER CONDITION WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48HRS.

hope you guys will be safe. I visited Placencia many years ago and have fond memories of my time there.
Please keep us updated.

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM,do you know from where in Belize the cam I posted above is?

[BZSTORM]

Cyclone eye looks to be San Pedro, but not sure

local radio update is NEMO is currently having meeting and looks like they plan to move anyone in low lying areas to higher ground for ambergris cayes (san pedro & caye caulker), the local ferry moved approx 100 people in last half hour from the cayes to Belize City. Mostly children and pregnant women. Kendal causeway which is the temporary crossing for south to North Belize just before Dangriga was open half hour ago but NEMO rep who monitors the causeway said allot of water coming through. Rian here still steady but a few heavier rainfalls, still no wind. Animals still active in yard. I have a troupe of coati mundis with young and they don't seem bothered, just irate with getting wet.
Belize city doesn't have rain right now

[BZSTORM]

NEMO just announced phase 3 in effect - called by Prime Minister which means 24 hours before system to afect country. Landfall expected midnight tonight in North border. All vessels to seek safe harbor by midday today. Only large vessels to be used to move from outlying cayes by mid day today.

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM,stay safe and dry.

[Gustywind]

Alex not a tinytoon for the first early tstorm of this season...

[msbee]

Cyclone eye looks to be San Pedro, but not sure

local radio update is NEMO is currently having meeting and looks like they plan to move anyone in low lying areas to higher ground for ambergris cayes (san pedro & caye caulker), the local ferry moved approx 100 people in last half hour from the cayes to Belize City. Mostly children and pregnant women. Kendal causeway which is the temporary crossing for south to North Belize just before Dangriga was open half hour ago but NEMO rep who monitors the causeway said allot of water coming through. Rian here still steady but a few heavier rainfalls, still no wind. Animals still active in yard. I have a troupe of coati mundis with young and they don't seem bothered, just irate with getting wet.
Belize city doesn't have rain right now

BZSTRORM
keep yourself and those coatis safe
great animals!

[msbee]

Actually , according to wundeground, this one is from San Pedro



and I think the one you posted, Luis, is from Caye Caulker


Both of those locations are north of Belize city, if i am not mistaken.
and BZSTORM is South of Belize City.
am I right, BZ?