ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Weatherfreak000]

Agreed...Alex has the potential to be far more intense than we could have imagined earlier. The deeper Alex gets the more its gonna wanna respond to any sort of weaknesses.

[KWT]

I think we are still looking at a Mexico landfall looking at the models but they are trending stronger now, the GFDL/HWRF are quite keen on a hurricane.

[rockyman]

12z GFDL:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

The 12z HWRF is well south of the GFDL...looks very similar to the ECM where it barely gets into the BoC...

I think this may wel lbe the key to the evolution of this system, tracking more and more westward...

[rockyman]

12z HWRF:



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Watch how Alex interacts with Darby...very interesting

[txagwxman]

Latest ECMWF south into Bay of Campeche...slows it down but stronger.

[Ivanhater]

Latest ECMWF south into Bay of Campeche...slows it down but stronger.

How long is it in the BOC before landfall?

[txagwxman]

ECMWF: Tampico, MX hurricane.

[KWT]

Latest ECMWF south into Bay of Campeche...slows it down but stronger.

Very interesting, looks like we are slowly getting close to agreement now, the ECM proves once again why its the king of the models...

Given the HWRF track and some of the other models it'd probably still have enough time over water to strengthen decently...

[jlauderdal]

nice work euro, cmc, gfs, etc. were way out to lunch and missed badly

[KWT]

Yeah it was obvious though that the CMC/GFS were going to be out to lunch when you know both have a bias for overdoing upper troughs, esp outside 96hrs...

[cycloneye]

Here is the ECMWF graphic showing the BOC hurricane Alex.

[ROCK]

I saw the 12z CMC pulls it north more than before....but its the CMC...

[KWT]

ECM gets down to aobut 1000mbs, so if you take it as it is then it'll probably landfall at about the same level as it is now, but actually I wouldn't be all that shcoked to see this close to hurricane strength, the HWRF track looks solid IMO and that gets it upto about 60kts.

[Wx_Warrior]

See the train of systems the EURO has coming?

[ronjon]

Does anyone buy into what the GFS is trying to do along the northern gulf coast in 72 hrs? It breaks off a piece of energy from Alex and ramps up some vorticity south of NO - then develops another low pressure which meanders east along the northern gulf coast. I noticed on their runs, both GFDL and HWRF also develop this northern gulf coast low. Checked 200 mb winds and the low doesn't appear to be cold core as a large upper air high is forecast to dominate the entire GOM over the next 3-5 days. Is the GFS out to lunch or is there a possible home grown system in the works?

[Ivanhater]

I'm watching that Ron for obvious reasons. GFS has shown this for a couple days now

[jlauderdal]

Does anyone buy into what the GFS is trying to do along the northern gulf coast in 72 hrs? It breaks off a piece of energy from Alex and ramps up some vorticity south of NO - then develops another low pressure which meanders east along the northern gulf coast. I noticed on their runs, both GFDL and HWRF also develop this northern gulf coast low. Checked 200 mb winds and the low doesn't appear to be cold core as a large upper air high is forecast to dominate the entire GOM over the next 3-5 days. Is the GFS out to lunch or is there a possible home grown system in the works?

Lunch, GFS has not had a handle on the situation all week

[xironman]

I saw the 12z CMC pulls it north more than before....but its the CMC...

The Canadian has not been bad on this system, most of the runs I have seen have plunged it into the Yucatan.

[ronjon]

I'm watching that Ron for obvious reasons. GFS has shown this for a couple days now

IH, looks like that large area of convection to the NE of Alex may break off from the circulation once Alex moves over land. Total speculation, but maybe this is what GFS eventually spins up down the road.