ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[hurricaneCW]

I'm starting to think it may not even make it into the gulf, it looks like its moving due west. That's great for mainland Mexico.

[bahamaswx]

Massive storm. Even feeding off the EPAC. Very impressive.

[KWT]

To be fair most models still take it into the BoC and thats still looking likely IMO even though the models are trending southwards still...

If it does, conditions look decent and the curvature of the land is favourable for development there.

[ConvergenceZone]

KWT, I agree with you. Yesterday I was thinking Northern Mexico closer to the Texas border, but now it's getting more obvious due to it's southerly track now, that this is looks like a southern BOC storm hitting southern Mexico. I guess the good news would be that once is emerges back over water, it's not going to have as much time to strengthen if it does take that path. Lots of flooding rain though, that's for sure. Hopefully it won't take any lives.


This is going to be more of a rain event than a wind event.

[masaji79]

What will be the effects in Guatemala? I'd hate to see more rains there since they had all the flooding from Agatha.

[HouTXmetro]

Alex outflow is wreaking havoc on Darby. No way to treat a friend. I'm starting to think Alex will get caught in the same High Pressure system thats keeping Darby south.

[bahamaswx]

KWT, I agree with you. Yesterday I was thinking Northern Mexico closer to the Texas border, but now it's getting more obvious due to it's southerly track now, that this is looks like a southern BOC storm hitting southern Mexico. I guess the good news would be that once is emerges back over water, it's not going to have as much time to strengthen if it does take that path. Lots of flooding rain though, that's for sure. Hopefully it won't take any lives.

Also seems that most of the well-established storms to track over the Yucatan lately have taken quite a while to regain their structure in the gulf.

[HurricaneStriker]

It appears to me that Tropical Storm Alex is going to make landfall at Belize in the next 3-6 hours. Satellite loops indicate that Alex is moving almost exactly west, as hurricaneCW stated. If it continues on this path, Alex may dissipate over Mexico, unless it starts pulling northwest.

Check out this AVN image of Alex. This thing is beast!!!

[Frank2]

KWT,

Per you comments, this track reminds me of two 2007 systems, or as Yogi (Berra) would say, "It's deja vu all over again!"...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[HouTXmetro]

Question: is Alex the largest storm ever in the Atlantic Basin in recorded history?

[KWT]

This is going to be more of a rain event than a wind event.

Don't be so sure though because the land and curve of the land will be very condusive for tightening up the system again if it ends up far enough south...Bret managed to form from pretty much nothing just offshore so it has enough time to strengthen decently IMO if conditions are good aloft, the only issue is its sheer size could be a problem.

[Frank2]

HouTXmetro,

Here's a photo of Hurricane Allen (1980) - one of the larger Atlantic hurricanes on record...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... ensity.JPG

[KWT]

Also remember this won't have an inner core, and therefore it won't have to rebuild it again. When they don't have inner cores they tend to strengthen a good bit faster again once back in the water then systems with inner cores that get messed about with...

[HouTXmetro]

HouTXmetro,

Here's a photo of Hurricane Allen (1980) - one of the larger Atlantic hurricanes on record...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... ensity.JPG

mmmm... i think Alex has Allen beat

[HurricaneStriker]

Question: is Alex the largest storm ever in the Atlantic Basin in recorded history?

I think Hurricane Ike of 2008 was larger, but by a slight difference. See for yourself.

Ike:


Alex:

[sunnyday]

Where is Derek Ortt? He used to be around to discuss the storms.

[HURAKAN]

Isidore was really big too

[x-y-no]

Not even remotely close in the measure of size that matters ...

Ike was around 420mile diameter of TS strength winds.

[x-y-no]

Where is Derek Ortt? He used to be around to discuss the storms.

Derek is busy at his new job, I'm sure.