ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

HS Thats the old advisory by the way...new advisory should be out any moment now...

[HurricaneStriker]

Alex strengthens to 65mph. Meanwhile, tropical force winds begin impacting Belize.



Meanwhile, the newly updated 5-day track cone.

[Hurricane Andrew]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 262031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A STRONGER ALEX...WEATHER DETERIORATING
FAST IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 87.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE CENTER. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE ALEX MOVES INLAND
...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
YUCATAN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ALEX MOVES OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT IN THE BAY ISLANDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[somethingfunny]

This storm will have difficulty in the Gulf once its' southern inflow channel is cut off.

[KWT]

Yep upto 55kts, must have taken a compramise between the SMRF values and the flight values which were a little lower in general...

Still the system really is going to have to lift north soon if its even going to get into the gulf, the models really don't show it gaining that much latitude really after the next 48hrs either...

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

If it doesn't lift up at all it'll actually end up outside the NHC cone on its current track...

Anyway this track IMO won't be far off, also quite interesting to see they are still going for a hurricane at 65kts.

[HurricaneStriker]

Pull up, hit north Mexico. Pull straight, hit south Mexico

[wx247]

I am not seeing what steers this so far to the NW in the next 36 hours or so. It looks to me like this may only get into the very southern Bay of Campeche before coming back ashore in Mexico. What would drive Alex further NW in the near term?

As always, just my $.04

[ConvergenceZone]

Its going to have to gain more latitude if its even going to get into the south BoC from the looks of things, worth noting though the center is right on the northern extreme of that deepest convection.

Yep, it's starting to look like it has the potential to just die over Mexico and never again merge over water....Sending my prayers to those in Mexico. There's going to be lots of flooding from this one.

[jinftl]

Agree, unless something pulls it towards a more northward heading, it may die south of the bay of campeche.

[Dean4Storms]

I hate it for those folks down there in its path, but I'm thanking God today that it did not make a turn northward and head for the oil impacted area. Imagine the devastation throughout the eastern Gulf a storm this size and all that warm water to traverse pushing oil covered storm surges everywhere from Tampa to New Orleans!

[KWT]

Pull straight HS and it barely makes it to the BoC, I just did a straight line on its current 280 heading and it just about gets over the water for maybe 4-6hrs before it hits the coast again...

I'm not seeing any real reason why it should lift out much more then it is currently, the synoptic pattern doesn't really change at all so I'm not sure what will lift it out as much as the models think...though of course it will lift out a little as the models all won't be wrong surely!

[HurricaneStriker]

The GFS Ensemble members seem to be extremely aggressive with this hitting Texas. I don't see much chance in this happening.

[ConvergenceZone]

I hate it for those folks down there in its path, but I'm thanking God today that it did not make a turn northward and head for the oil impacted area. Imagine the devastation throughout the eastern Gulf a storm this size and all that warm water to traverse pushing oil covered storm surges everywhere from Tampa to New Orleans!

Dean4Storms, I agree with you. Can you imagine what would have happened if this storm would have went into the central or northern gulf of mexico? I don't think I even want to think about that.

[KWT]

Sadly CZ this is the first of many storms this season, plenty that may not leave it till the W.Caribbean to develop...

Still looks very impressive, not long till landfall now as well at 55kts, which is quite a bit higher then what was expected yesterday if you think about it!

[jinftl]

If you extrapolate the current track heading...Alex may not spend much time over water again. It made landfall south of where even expected this time yesterday given that Belize wasn't initially in the t.s. warnings even.

[HurricaneStriker]

Alex might even die in the Yucatan if it persists on this path due to mountainous terrain.

[Dean4Storms]

Pull straight HS and it barely makes it to the BoC, I just did a straight line on its current 280 heading and it just about gets over the water for maybe 4-6hrs before it hits the coast again...

I'm not seeing any real reason why it should lift out much more then it is currently, the synoptic pattern doesn't really change at all so I'm not sure what will lift it out as much as the models think...though of course it will lift out a little as the models all won't be wrong surely!

I think the models are expecting the ridge over the northern Gulf to Florida to begin to weaken tomorrow and slide eastward in advance of the trough expected to come down near our coast. This has to allow Alex to begin to curve around the western periphery of that ridge.

[CrazyC83]

Given its intensification trend, a hurricane before landfall is not out of the question.