ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[deltadog03]

EURO nailed it

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yes it did!

[KWT]

Given its intensification trend, a hurricane before landfall is not out of the question.

Its like an hour away from landfall now, recon showed it about 30-40 miles away when it last had a center punch, so I'd assume its really any time now...

By the way another system that may end up being a good match for Alex is Gert from 2005 when its in the S.BoC. This region of water is quite able to support a hurricane despite the limited ocean area, as Stan and Lorenzo both prove.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

EURO nailed it

Once again confirms that is the best model,period. Speaking of the EURO,it has something over me for July 6 ,but that is another story in Talking Tropics.

[KWT]

I think the models are expecting the ridge over the northern Gulf to Florida to begin to weaken tomorrow and slide eastward in advance of the trough expected to come down near our coast. This has to allow Alex to begin to curve around the western periphery of that ridge.

Ok that does make sense, but my only concern was that quite a few of the models were advertising this to occur today or even yesterday, only really the ECM has held it off till this stage before yesterday and from past experience these do have a habit of just tracking along thier same track mean they have been doing before hand...

That being said I'd be very surprised if this doesn't get into the S.BoC....and as long as it gets far enough north (say 100-150 miles offshore) then 'd still say a hurricane is very possible given conditions aloft are good now...

[jinftl]

Interesting to watch trend of NHC wind probability forecasts for cities along the Texas and Mexico coast over the last several advisories....big shift towards Mexico threat. Risk of ts winds north of Freeport lowered to 0%.

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS


1st % = 5am, 6/26 advisory
2nd % = 11am, 6/26 advisory
3rd % = 5pm, 6/26 advisory

PORT ARTHUR 34 KT 6% 4% 0%
PORT ARTHUR 50 KT 0% 0% 0%
PORT ARTHUR 64 KT 0% 0% 0%

GALVESTON 34 KT 9% 7% 0%
GALVESTON 50 KT 0% 0% 0%
GALVESTON 64 KT 0% 0% 0%

HOUSTON 34 KT 6% 5% 0%
HOUSTON 50 KT 0% 0% 0%
HOUSTON 64 KT 0% 0% 0%

FREEPORT 34 KT 10% 8% 3%
FREEPORT 50 KT 0% 0% 0%
FREEPORT 64 KT 0% 0% 0%

PORT O'CONNOR 34 KT 10% 11% 4%
PORT O'CONNOR 50 KT 0% 3% 0%
PORT O'CONNOR 64 KT 0% 0% 0%

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 KT 9% 12% 7%
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 KT 0% 0% 0%
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 KT 0% 0% 0%

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 KT 17% 28% 18%
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 KT 5% 8% 4%
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 KT 1% 3% 0%

LA PESCO MX 34 KT 13% 29% 36%
LA PESCO MX 50 KT 3% 8% 12%
LA PESCO MX 64 KT 0% 2% 3%

TAMPICO MX 34 KT 10% 26% 40%
TAMPICO MX 50 KT 0% 8% 15%
TAMPICO MX 64 KT 0% 2% 6%

VERA CRUZ MX 34 KT 6% 11% 24%
VERA CRUZ MX 50 KT 0% 0% 7%
VERA CRUZ MX 64 KT 0% 0% 3%

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

Eye trying to form there?

[HURAKAN]

Accuwx's take

[HurricaneStriker]

Given its intensification trend, a hurricane before landfall is not out of the question.

Its like an hour away from landfall now, recon showed it about 30-40 miles away when it last had a center punch, so I'd assume its really any time now...

By the way another system that may end up being a good match for Alex is Gert from 2005 when its in the S.BoC. This region of water is quite able to support a hurricane despite the limited ocean area, as Stan and Lorenzo both prove.

65mph-75mph. Seems like its possible in one hour.

[wxman57]

I am not seeing what steers this so far to the NW in the next 36 hours or so. It looks to me like this may only get into the very southern Bay of Campeche before coming back ashore in Mexico. What would drive Alex further NW in the near term?

As always, just my $.04

The temporary weakness in the ridge to the north, at least what the earlier models were showing. Looking more like the ECMWF was right in keeping the ridge stronger, though.

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic from TCEQ - http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/compliance/ ... /goes.html

[KWT]

Eye trying to form there?

I don't think so but it is quite obvious that the center is about to pas over that island...probably will get upto 60kts by landfall though the offical forecast probably won't reflect that as it'll be a few hours inland by the next advisory.

[KWT]

The temporary weakness in the ridge to the north, at least what the earlier models were showing. Looking more like the ECMWF was right in keeping the ridge stronger, though.

I'm starting to have doubts about that idea, the models of the last few days were lifting the system out to the NW yesterday but that still hasn't occured at all, not sure what really changes apart from perhaps a slight weakening of the subtropical high pressure ridge but I'm not sure its enough to lift it out to nearly the NW like what is expected. I still do think it'll get into the BoC though.

[HURAKAN]

In case you haven't seen Alex's size .... lol

[americanre1]

Just wondering if the same thing that is suppose to pull Darby NE might pull Alex N or NE in the next couple days.

[Ntxwx]

Eye trying to form there?

Hmm.. Idk, but needs to be watched IMO.

[thetruesms]

Wow, quite a change in just a little bit of time. I should have just watched this instead of US-Ghana

[KWT]

Conditions aloft are really good now, and its bursting inland...I wouldn't be all that shocked to see it make it to a hurricane in the BoC even if it does end up close to the south of the NHC cone of uncertainty...