ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[americanre1]

Looks like push towards a landfall in Mexico continues...only one model showing a landfall in the u.s.

according to the spaghetti models there is a good chance of this storm just following the Mexico and Texas Coast up until it finally decides to make landfall. So does that mean that it really depends on forward speed and intensity for the whole time on if it goes inland in Mexico or gets caught and pulled north into the northern part of the Texas coast or even Louisiana??

[txagwxman]

ECMWF hinting at another distrubance 10 days into the Caribbean once again...so we are just starting.

[KWT]

THose models barely even lift the system at all now, looks like most only add another 5 degrees of turn to the system.

[Ntxwx]

according to the spaghetti models there is a good chance of this storm just following the Mexico and Texas Coast up until it finally decides to make landfall. So does that mean that it really depends on forward speed and intensity for the whole time on if it goes inland in Mexico or gets caught and pulled north into the northern part of the Texas coast or even Louisiana??

I believe so, I think we will have a much better understanding of where Alex will finnally end up after it emerges back onto the warm-condusive GOM/BOC. Depending on if its keeps barreling at a West/NW motion straight towards mexico or makes a turn to the NW we shall see.. But the more time it spends on hostile waters the more inevitable strengthing we will have to prepare for. This things have minds of their own but i believe the oil spill area proper is probably "out of the woods" but we can't be 100% sure... If you live along Texas/Mexico coast stay tuned!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC products.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS 90 HOURS

[KFDM Meteorologist]

ECMWF hinting at another distrubance 10 days into the Caribbean once again...so we are just starting.

Yes we are and with the High farther east this could be trouble.

[ronjon]

Beat me to IH. GFS is persistent with this scenario. The model really weakens the ridge and still wants to break off a piece of energy on the northern gulf coast.

[Ivanhater]

108 HOURS

[Ivanhater]

120 HOURS

[KWT]

Beat me to IH. GFS is persistent with this scenario. The model really weakens the ridge and still wants to break off a piece of energy on the northern gulf coast.

I'm guessing the sheer size of the system and the outflow helps tp spark something up...I'd be surprised if it comes off though, looks a bit of a pahntom system to me...

18z GFS looks like its shifted back further north again this run.

[Ntxwx]

So GFS & NAM are on to something

[South Texas Storms]

is corpus christi not out of the woods yet?

[Ntxwx]

is corpus christi not out of the woods yet?

HECK NO its not out of the woods yet.....

[South Texas Storms]

is it too early to tell what i can expect from alex here in san antonio?

[Ivanhater]

138

[ronjon]

Wow, GFS puts texas under the gun again. Maybe its not a done deal yet on the second landfall.

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF hinting at another distrubance 10 days into the Caribbean once again...so we are just starting.

Isn't that the truth!

[Ntxwx]

is it too early to tell what i can expect from alex here in san antonio?

Yeah, its probably a little to early to tell exactly what will happen in SA because we are still uncertain where exactly it will make its 2nd landfall... Heck it hasn't even made it's first... But I would say San Antonio is NOT completely out of the woods.

Sorry if I appear bullish.

[Ivanhater]

156 HEADING TO HOUSTON

[South Texas Storms]

is it too early to tell what i can expect from alex here in san antonio?

Yeah, its probably a little to early to tell exactly what will happen in SA because we are still uncertain where exactly it will make its 2nd landfall... Heck it hasn't even made it's first... But I would say San Antonio is NOT completely out of the woods.

Sorry if I appear bullish.

haha no its fine thanks for your help. i hope for at least some good tropical downpours here...a little wind would be pretty cool too