ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Hurricane Andrew]

What will the Trough do?

[Dean4Storms]

I think tonight's 0z runs and tomorrows 12z runs will begin to nail this down now that the trough is entering the NW US and upper air obs can be obtained to determine better the strength, position and depth of the trough.

[HURAKAN]

What will the Trough do?

Troughs break down high pressures (ridges), which allow hurricanes to move further north.

[Hurricane Andrew]

What will the Trough do?

Troughs break down high pressures (ridges), which allow hurricanes to move further north.

Ok. Thanks.

So the further the trough digs, the more north Alex goes?

[Dean4Storms]

If the 18z GFDL run is going to pan out then Alex has to start making a hard turn to the NW tonight!!

[KWT]

NHC is on the southern side of guidance now. This is exactly why you cannot say anything is certain in the tropics. Sometimes we never learn. Still plenty of time for things to change....Trough still digging

To be fair most of that guidence is based off of the GFS which of course moved north, really its the CMC, GFS and its Minons (in the case of the GFDL, its stronger Minon!)

Certainly looking like the idea that was starting to be banded about with regards to it not even making the BoC are looking very silly already. A real split in the models as you say, enough to certainly not take anything for granted. If it takes then I wouldn't be all that surprised to see this close to cat-2 at some point (I know its a long way off) but if it took the GFDL track then it would be very close to the June 1921 hurricane which got to 90mph...

[ROCK]

if the EURO flips tonight I am going to throw up...that said, I dont think I have ever seen all the models converge on a set location for landfall then split off again....I am old and have been looking at these for a long time...I am dumbfounded to say the least...

[Ivanhater]

if the EURO flips tonight I am going to throw up...that said, I dont think I have ever seen all the models converge on a set location for landfall then split off again....I am old and have been looking at these for a long time...I am dumbfounded to say the least...

I'm with you Rock. I'd keep an eye on the water vapor and watch the trough progression tonight...

[cycloneye]

if the EURO flips tonight I am going to throw up...that said, I dont think I have ever seen all the models converge on a set location for landfall then split off again....I am old and have been looking at these for a long time...I am dumbfounded to say the least...

Are you going to stay up and wait for it?

[Hurricane Andrew]

I am staying up for the EURO. If it says texas, then My hunch all along for a brownsville landfall may come true!

[KWT]

The thing that makes me wonder abnout the CMC solution is it does exit Alex reasonably far south compared with some of the other models, probably something around 19-19.5N which seems reasonable enough, and yet still manages to lift out...

If I see some bigger NW motions in the next 12hrs, then I may have to change my thinking...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Also notice on the map cycloneye posted above that some of the models that are still showing Alex moving west/wnw into mexico curve him to the north and even NE soon after landfall. So there seems to be a building consensus that with the trough digging down and breaking the ridge down Alex will turn northward. Question is will it happen sooner rather than later. Biggest thing to watch for tomorrow into monday, as IvanHater said, is the trough digging down over the western US.
Ivan H keep us updated on the loops out west. You could be on to something here.

[ronjon]

Interesting that the GFS had the best 48 and 72 hour performance last year. Hey, the model split is what makes forecasting a puzzle and why we're all hooked on tropical weather. It's great to get all the feedback from everyone - we have some great minds on this board. The trough is the key and where Alex emerges off the Yucatan. The Euro has been trending stronger with its east coast trough for Wed and Thur next week from earlier runs.

[Ivanhater]

Remember this part from the NHC disco

A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED WHILE ALEX IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT.

We may be seeing the round a bout turn to the north trend in the models this evening. Trough continues to dig

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/w ... us&type=wv

[Nederlander]

another thing to note, if you havent thought about it already.. the shape of the texas coastline.. I am not here to sound any alarms so please dont jump on the oil spill bandwagon.. but IF the trough does dig far south and breaks down the ridge, then a storm riding the texas coastline at a similar curvature is not out of the question..

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[Weatherfreak000]

A scary change of events indeed, and as always I believe a deeper storm will go farther North. This may be reflected in the model output.

[antonlsu]

if the EURO flips tonight I am going to throw up...that said, I dont think I have ever seen all the models converge on a set location for landfall then split off again....I am old and have been looking at these for a long time...I am dumbfounded to say the least...

How could you forget rita, when every model had a cat4/5 hitting surfside. Then they all of a sudden switched and it went more east, Or katrina when they all had the panhandle and switched to Nola. Correct me if i am wrong but isnt the margin of error on a 5 day forecast like 200 miles?

[Nederlander]

if the EURO flips tonight I am going to throw up...that said, I dont think I have ever seen all the models converge on a set location for landfall then split off again....I am old and have been looking at these for a long time...I am dumbfounded to say the least...

How could you forget rita, when every model had a cat4/5 hitting surfside. Then they all of a sudden switched and it went more east, Or katrina when they all had the panhandle and switched to Nola. Correct me if i am wrong but isnt the margin of error on a 5 day forecast like 200 miles?

I am not sure what the margin of error is, but my common sense tells me that in a setup like this, it could be even more.. considering the timing of the trough, strength of the trough, and the curvature of the texas coast line..

[wx247]

About what time do we expect the 00z GFS and then the Euro to come rolling in?

I would imagine another hour or so for the GFS??

[vaffie]

The GFS usually starts coming in around 11:20 pm central time, finishing by 11:50 pm--so you have 2.5 hours to wait. The Euro is much later--usually around 1:40 am.