ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Alex's exterior bands affecting western Cuba

And a bit further north, mentioned in the Tampa Bay AFD as bringing moisture to the area. Its the outer fringe of outflow and quite visible even in miami tonight.

[wxman57]

http://i863.photobucket.com/albums/ab198/primo77/286.jpg

Center has to be inland between the two stations

Using that analysis (01Z) in GARP with a satellite overlay, it looks like the center was almost on top of that lower station with the SW wind. Just a tad NW of it. That would be 17.6N/88.5W. For reference, the forecast 24 hours ago was for Alex to be at 19.5N as it passed west of 88W.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at pictures, I agree with 60 kt for a landfall intensity (pressure 994mb) at about 2200Z. It probably has weakened since to about 50 kt.

[funster]

If it doesn't move much to the north over land it probably isn't going to be influenced by the trough went it gets into the Bay. Although some of the models seem to think it will. 17.6 is more north than the 7PM CDT estimate of 17.4.

[chzzdekr81]

What would have to happen for Alex to shift more northward?

[wxman57]

What would have to happen for Alex to shift more northward?

We'd need to see evidence of an upper-level trof digging into the Gulf. But what I see is an upper low that was over NE Mexico moving off to the north and shearing apart as the ridge builds along the Gulf coast. There just doesn't appear to be anything to move it drastically northward.

[Kennethb]

What would have to happen for Alex to shift more northward?

We'd need to see evidence of an upper-level trof digging into the Gulf. But what I see is an upper low that was over NE Mexico moving off to the north and shearing apart as the ridge builds along the Gulf coast. There just doesn't appear to be anything to move it drastically northward.

What are your thoughts on the trough digging down through the west coast?

[HURAKAN]

http://i863.photobucket.com/albums/ab198/primo77/286.jpg

Center has to be inland between the two stations

Using that analysis (01Z) in GARP with a satellite overlay, it looks like the center was almost on top of that lower station with the SW wind. Just a tad NW of it. That would be 17.6N/88.5W. For reference, the forecast 24 hours ago was for Alex to be at 19.5N as it passed west of 88W.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Also isn't it supposed to be a east coast trough that drops down tuesday into wednesday towards the gulf states that is supposed to weaken the ridge?

[Weatherfreak000]

As far as this trough solution I can only think of two solid ways of making it work.

1. The LLC gets stuck over land and meanders, allowing the inevitable trough to break down the ridge or..

2. The trough speeds up, Alex comes into the BOC and strengthens fast, feels the trough.


Timing is a factor, as i've been constantly saying it's never certain until it's in the GOM.

[Ivanhater]

It's hard to believe with all these models responding to the trough, that it wont weaken the ridge at some point

[ROCK]

Ivan arent those mostly GFS related ensembles....I see your point though... the evidence is mounting that is for sure....

[Ivanhater]

Ivan arent those mostly GFS related ensembles....I see your point though... the evidence is mounting that is for sure....

No Rock, I believe they are these models in this graphic which makes up the NHC guidance

[cperez1594]

From Brownsville AFD

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...LONG TERM FORECAST STILL
DOMINATED BY THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX. CURRENT NHC
FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF INGEST DATA AND LARGE
RESOLUTION HAMPERING THE SOLUTIONS OF THE LARGE-SCALE GLOBAL
COMPUTER MODELS...WHICH HAVE A WIDE SWING OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE
TRACK OF ALEX. SMALLER SCALE BETTER RESOLUTION MODELS FOCUSING THE
TRACK OF ALEX JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST...KEEPING THE MAIN BRUNT OF
ALEX IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WITH THIS IN MIND...AM DISREGARDING
GFS AND OTHER GOLBAL MODELS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH HPC
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK. OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM NHC REMAINS IN LINE
WITH SMALLER SCALE MODELS WITH ALEX MAKING LANDFALL AS A MINIMAL
HURRICANE NEARLY 300 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER AROUND ALEX IS STILL FORECAST TO BE VERY
LARGE...SO DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPPED POP NUMBERS FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD AND WILL STICK NEAR HPC QPF GUIDANCE. WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER...EVEN OF THE CIRRUS VARIETY...AND INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST WEEK...BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY HIGHER
HUMIDITY.

[Sanibel]

Belize it was.

Nothing unusual on the Belize message board. Some hard rain. No one reporting any crazy winds or anything. Maybe they're all hunkered down?

[cperez1594]

Just saw the NHC Forcast 5 Day Prediction and they moved it a little back to the North.

[funster]

Just saw the NHC Forcast 5 Day Prediction and they moved it a little back to the North.

Looks like Brownsville is back in the 5-day cone.

[Nederlander]

Belize it was.

Nothing unusual on the Belize message board. Some hard rain. No one reporting any crazy winds or anything. Maybe they're all hunkered down?

Strongest winds are probably going to be on the extreme north end of belize near the mexico border..

[cperez1594]

Yeah Brownsville is back in it. Jeez it is going to be a long week at work. First thing Monday we are going to get stuff ready here in South Texas. I work with the Fire Dept. It is going to be crazy if more models show it getting closer to us. !!

[cycloneye]

10 PM CDT Advisory track.