ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ikester]

Make that the Canadian, Nam, GFS and GFDL that moved north. If I were not a Roll tide fan, I'd say Hook 'em Horns!

What's wrong with Gig'Em Aggies? LOL

I just drove in from Austin and when I left Austin, Alex was written off as a Mexican system. I got a call about 15 miles from my house in Houston of the jump and I about wrecked the car. I have doubted the strength of the ridge from the beginning. A system that encompasses an area the size of Alex will feel the effects of weather patterns hundreds and thousands of miles away. This is not Humberto tucked away quietly in the Bay of Campeche watching everything pass to its north.

[Ikester]

if the EURO flips tonight I am going to throw up...that said, I dont think I have ever seen all the models converge on a set location for landfall then split off again....I am old and have been looking at these for a long time...I am dumbfounded to say the least...

How could you forget rita, when every model had a cat4/5 hitting surfside. Then they all of a sudden switched and it went more east, Or katrina when they all had the panhandle and switched to Nola. Correct me if i am wrong but isnt the margin of error on a 5 day forecast like 200 miles?

I am not sure what the margin of error is, but my common sense tells me that in a setup like this, it could be even more.. considering the timing of the trough, strength of the trough, and the curvature of the texas coast line..

There was a study done here at HGX by a forecaster on actual hurricane landfall location versus forecasted landfall location and he discovered that like ~76% of all gulf hurricanes miss their forecasted landfall point to the north. Rita and Ike both missed theirs to the north.

[vaffie]

I have frequently observed that the GFDL and HWRF have extremely similar tracks, and as was mentioned before by someone, GFDL typically has a small right bias and is based upon the GFS initial data. So it is not surprising when the GFDL and GFS align (as they do in the latest run). One wonders why the HWRF didn't follow suit and end up pointing further north. I think the explanation is obvious if you consider the strength differences between the two. The HWRF has a protracted period of no strengthening after emergence, but the GFDL starts strengthening immediately, and in fact reaches upper Category 3 by the time it reaches Texas. This is key, because a trough is going to have a much bigger effect on a larger faster strengthening storm than a weaker one, so as long as the HWRF doesn't strengthen it quickly upon emergence, its forecast track is going to be further south by default.

[chzzdekr81]

Ok, so I just checked the spaghetti models and I noticed more going north than a few hours ago. Should the path (cone) change and shift more northward like the few models suggest?

[Nederlander]

Ok, so I just checked the spaghetti models and I noticed more going north than a few hours ago. Should the path (cone) change and shift more northward like the few models suggest?

who knows what the NHC will do at this point.. my hunch is they arent going to want to make any major changes unless a pattern develops which includes the euro

[ronjon]

Let's not forget the vast majority of the GFS ensemble members move the storm northward toward east Tx. And the BAMM and BAMD shifted to SW La. I found a neat site where you can click on all the various model runs.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/01-googlemaps.shtml

[Ikester]

Ok, so I just checked the spaghetti models and I noticed more going north than a few hours ago. Should the path (cone) change and shift more northward like the few models suggest?

In the words of George H.W. Bush "it wouldn't be prudent at this juncture." Let's just wait and see if these are reliable runs. One run gets my attention. Two runs I really begin to question and three runs, I'm sold. I would bet that the NHC cone will not shift much at all....maybe a bit to the north.

[ROCK]

if the EURO flips tonight I am going to throw up...that said, I dont think I have ever seen all the models converge on a set location for landfall then split off again....I am old and have been looking at these for a long time...I am dumbfounded to say the least...

Are you going to stay up and wait for it?

yes Luis I am staying up ONE more night for the EURO ....after that I done pulling the late nighters...

[Ikester]

if the EURO flips tonight I am going to throw up...that said, I dont think I have ever seen all the models converge on a set location for landfall then split off again....I am old and have been looking at these for a long time...I am dumbfounded to say the least...

Are you going to stay up and wait for it?

yes Luis I am staying up ONE more night for the EURO ....after that I done pulling the late nighters...

Matthew, aren't you like 17? LOL

Actually, you aren't Matthew. I mixed up names. Paul, is that you? LOL

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Probably won't change at all. Probably mention that a few have shifted north and bears watching to see if current trends continue. Once Alex emerges into gulf/boc then would expect changes to track if models are still showing northward trends. So basically have to wait until tomorrow afternoon or so.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.
GIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS.

[ROCK]

0z GFS out and still is north....wonderful

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

[Ivanhater]

0z GFS out and still is north....wonderful

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

Yeah, and the "spurious vort max" is not what is breaking the ridge down..it's the trough

[ROCK]

yeah Ivan...I see that......bro its going to be a long night waiting on the EURO....

[Nederlander]

and the 0z run ingests new data correct? ill be up waiting on the euro as well rock..

[Ivanhater]

78 hours

[nashrobertsx]

what time does the oz euro come out? midnight?

[Weatherfreak000]

Watching how the GFS handles this and where landfall will be is crucial.


IMO the best way to view the models is thru its forecasting ability....as has been discussed here lately.


BUT also remember....last system was an EL Nino season where as this is a developing La Nina. Troughiness may be expected....however it appears GFDL and EURO are very effective in Neutral seasons.

My point is if you agree the EURO is west bias...and the HWRF/GFDL is right bias...we may be able to also draw up a trend as far as which models we expect to perform the best under Neutral or Weak/Strong La Ninas/El Ninos.

[ROCK]

what time does the oz euro come out? midnight?

I wish!! 1:45CDT....a select few out there can get it a little earlier....not me...

[ROCK]

Watching how the GFS handles this and where landfall will be is crucial.


IMO the best way to view the models is thru its forecasting ability....as has been discussed here lately.


BUT also remember....last system was an EL Nino season where as this is a developing La Nina. Troughiness may be expected....however it appears GFDL and EURO are very effective in Neutral seasons.

My point is if you agree the EURO is west bias...and the HWRF/GFDL is right bias...we may be able to also draw up a trend as far as which models we expect to perform the best under Neutral or Weak/Strong La Ninas/El Ninos.

that is a great point...Weatherfreak....that would be nice to know...