WPAC: 90W INVEST east of Philippine Islands

[Chacor]

Yet another INVEST in the WPac. Could develop, I guess: EURO has something strong a long way north of here in a week. Maybe after recurving.

[Typhoon10]

Yet another INVEST in the WPac. Could develop, I guess: EURO has something strong a long way north of here in a week. Maybe after recurving.

Eh? "Yet another?" We have had hardly any activity in the WPAC? What have Euro got north? Sorry if am being dumb, am just a amateur.Thx

[Chacor]

The WPAC's had a few invests recently, but all short-lived.

The EURO was showing something in the long range earlier this week, but it isn't anymore.

[KWT]

Well I can't imagine it'll be too much longer before something pops in the WPAC, the Atl is about to overtake it in the ACE stakes!

[Typhoon10]

Well I can't imagine it'll be too much longer before something pops in the WPAC, the Atl is about to overtake it in the ACE stakes!

Yeah the whole Active Form is being taken up by EPAC and ATL systems, I want something in WPAC to discuss. Also I am on sabbatical till mid July, would like to see something before then!

[Infdidoll]

Good explanation of why we're seeing such a late start, this year:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/typ98IA-3.txt

When it shifts over to La Nina, the season is expected to pick up in July. Until then, I'm rather enjoying a respite from worry.

[somethingfunny]

Good explanation of why we're seeing such a late start, this year:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/typ98IA-3.txt

When it shifts over to La Nina, the season is expected to pick up in July. Until then, I'm rather enjoying a respite from worry.

That's fascinating, thanks for finding and posting it!

With no monsoon trough, is that causing a drought over there?

[Infdidoll]

The problem was, the monsoon trough hung around too long over the northern WPAC...so places like Okinawa, where I am, got the most rain they've seen in 20 years, from what I've heard. However, the southern portion of the WPAC is having drought problems. Coincidently, that link I posted was talking about how these conditions are very similar to 1998 and Guam is having the worst drought since 1998: http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/index. ... Itemid=156

Now I'm anxious to do some research and see what the typhoon season was like for 1998 with these kinds of conditions...

[Infdidoll]

Looks like we might have a below-average year with these conditions if the past is any indication of what's to come. From the 1998 JTWC report:

The 1998 tropical cyclone forecasting seasons was one of the most challenging in the 39-year history of the Joint Typhoon Warning center (JTWC) due to the nature of the forecast season and the move of JTWC from Guam to Hawaii. In terms of forecast difficulty, the 1998 Western Pacific season was one of the toughest in the past two decades based upon the performance of the Climatology and Persistence (CLIPER) model (which provides us a baseline against which to meausre our forecast skill). We also noted a number of anomalies in the WestPac, many of which could be traced to the well-documented La Nina even thtat was on-going throughout the season. First, we had a very late start to the season. Our initial named storm, Tropical Storm Nichole, did not occur until 7 July. This was the latest occurrence for a named storm since JTWC has been keeping records (1959). We also had fewer tropical cyclones (tropical depressions and storms, typhoons and super-typhoons) than average with 27 in 1998 versus an average of approximately 31. The tropical cyclones that occurred also tended to be less intense than average. In 1998, we had 9 Tropical Depressions (TD), 9 Tropical Storms (TS), and 9 Typhoons (TY). We would expect an average (again, approximate) of 4 TD, 10 TS, and 18 TY. We definitely experienced a much higher percentage of TDs than usual and a significantly lower percentage of typhoons. The genesis areas for the storms was also substantially displaced to the west with a higher percentage of the storms forming in the South China SEa and fewer east of Guam than we normally expect.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... mplete.pdf

[HurricaneBill]

There were 3 super typhoons during 1998.

Todd/Emang (130 KT)
Zeb/Iliang (155KT)
Babs/Loleng (135KT)