ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[rockyman]

If this forecasted winds cone shifts any more to the right, the oil spill areas could come back into play (especially if Alex becomes a major as the gales will extend much farther to the east). I hate to say this, but BP could activate its hurricane plan today.



Do we have a separate oil spill effects page for Alex? If not, we might need one...especially if the NHC shifts farther north.

[bob rulz]

...Bonnie made landfall in Texas as a category 1 hurricane on June 26, 1986 - that's 34 years!

It's 24 years, since it's the year I was born!

Woops, my bad. Finger just hit the wrong key, it happens!

And of course, Alex could be higher than Cat 1 at landfall...let's hope not though.

[KWT]

If this forecasted winds cone shifts any more to the right, the oil spill areas could come back into play (especially if Alex becomes a major as the gales will extend much farther to the east). I hate to say this, but BP could activate its hurricane plan today.
Do we have a separate oil spill effects page for Alex? If not, we might need one...especially if the NHC shifts farther north.

Well its certainly an option if the CMC/GFS have its own way, I still think they are right outliers for good reason, but it can't be denied that all but the GFDL have shifted northwards in thier most recent runs.

[Chacor]

Just a reminder that the NHC now has the Deepwater Horizon spill point (PDF) on its Wind Speed Probability product when necessary.

[Chacor]

Some helpful links:
Belize Weather Bureau: http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/
Mexico National Met Service (Atlantic cyclone warning): http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/avisos/at ... ntico.html

[rockyman]

Who stole the ridge?



And it only gets worse for the U.S., if Alex gets stronger:

[Hurricane Andrew]

I am looking at Alex and i do not like what i see. I see a NW moving organized TS that will emerge in 6-12 Hours. I see a TS on path to TX.

[KWT]

Yeah the ridge is certainly getting well eroded, you can see why it has turned to about 300 degrees, if the upper trough can push the ridge even further east then we will have to keep a very close eye out for at least S.Texas...

[wxman57]

Well, it's definitely not moving west now. Ridge eroded as had been forecast. Though it's still a bit left of the forecast track, it will definitely not be impacted by land by this evening. Euro has the ridge rebuilding to it's north by Tuesday. This should push Alex westward into Mexico.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 89.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[Ivanhater]

Well, it's definitely not moving west now. Ridge eroded as had been forecast. Though it's still a bit left of the forecast track, it will definitely not be impacted by land by this evening. Euro has the ridge rebuilding to it's north by Tuesday. This should push Alex westward into Mexico.

I disagree. As I said yesterday, the trough is really digging. The NHC DISCO is very interesting and confirms the pattern change the models are sniffing out. Certainly a bit different than the "it might not even make it to the boc" talk we saw last night

. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO
CONFIRM THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Well, ALex is putting up a fight! On IR, it looks like it will beguin to emerge off the coast in 3-6 hours, and finish in 12-16.

[barometerJane61]

Its not July yet and we are about to get our first hurricane . Not boding well for the 2010 season

[TampaFl]

Nice radar loop of Alex courtesy og Central Florida Hurricane 2010 & Belize Weather Service. looks like in the last several frames center moves more to the west. As Wxman57 said it appears Alex is moving slightly west of forcasted track.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?73

Robert

[KWT]

Well, it's definitely not moving west now. Ridge eroded as had been forecast. Though it's still a bit left of the forecast track, it will definitely not be impacted by land by this evening. Euro has the ridge rebuilding to it's north by Tuesday. This should push Alex westward into Mexico.

Yeah the ECM does bring back the ridge, though it should be noted the ECM ensembles are further north as are quite a few other models as well...so I think S.Texas are clearly not out the woods as I'm sure you'd agree.

Anyway its getting within 100 miles of water so won't be long before the feeder bands are out in the BoC again.

Something between Tampico and Brownsville looking the best call right now.

[Ivanhater]

Huge feeder band blowing up NE of the center/ Should stretch to the boc soon.



Trough still digging

[KWT]

Yep Ivanhater those feeder bands should start to strengthen over the water, esp as the energy from Alex carries on weakening whilst its overland, which would explain why it may have tracked a little more westerly recently.

Got a cracking structure still it has to be said, won't be long till its back over water, also needs to head NW to get to Texas from here FWIW...

[jlauderdal]

Its not July yet and we are about to get our first hurricane . Not boding well for the 2010 season

no correlation between early season activity or lack of and the rest of the season, however based on other factors it appears it should be busy

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to TD at 12z Best Track.

AL, 01, 2010062712, , BEST, 0, 186N, 901W, 30, 1001, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[KWT]

Yeah that makes sense cycloneye the structure has weakened and now we are down to just a central region of deep convection over the center which will continue to weaken, but it hasn't got long till its over water again and the rebuilding process will begin for Alex...

See no reason why we won't have our first hurricane from this.