ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[hurricaneCW]

At this rate of deterioration, there may not be too much left of it once it emerges over water which by the way is still 6+ hours away. Someone mentioned how quickly storms reorganize after hitting the Yucatan but if you want to be fair, take a look at the other spectrum of that scale. For example the once powerful Hurricane Isidore got ripped apart when it hit the Yucatan peninsula.

[HurricaneBelle]

At this rate of deterioration, there may not be too much left of it once it emerges over water which by the way is still 6+ hours away. Someone mentioned how quickly storms reorganize after hitting the Yucatan but if you want to be fair, take a look at the other spectrum of that scale. For example the once powerful Hurricane Isidore got ripped apart when it hit the Yucatan peninsula.

In fairness though, Isidore stalled over the northern Yucatan for about 36 hours, while Alex's stay should be less than 24.

[HURAKAN]

At this rate of deterioration, there may not be too much left of it once it emerges over water which by the way is still 6+ hours away. Someone mentioned how quickly storms reorganize after hitting the Yucatan but if you want to be fair, take a look at the other spectrum of that scale. For example the once powerful Hurricane Isidore got ripped apart when it hit the Yucatan peninsula.

Deterioration? Looks great

[KWT]

Everyone who says it won't have time to get its act together has a pretty short memory. History is riddled with examples of hurricanes that crossed the Yucatan, fell apart, and re-organized to attain nearly their previous intensity, sometimes cat 3 or even 4.

Also, don't forget Audrey in 1957 - it formed in the southern Gulf and was a category 4 at landfall in Texas. This was in late June, not August or September.

worth noting Audrey is a huge over-estimate from what the reports from landfall, re-anaylsis project will probably downgrade it to a 2...

Convection has warmed but the actual circulation still looks strong and the organisation is decent...this hasn't got the presentation of a system that will struggle...

[cycloneye]

-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 90.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[cycloneye]

[floridasun78]

i readed if this move more toward textas we could see cat 2 or stronger i remember seen few model runs that take it more nnw last night

[AdamFirst]

System looks fine for one that has been over land for 12 hours. The campeche buffet is right on its doorstep...I expect it to get back to ts status no problem.

That's in my totally unprofessional and amateur opinion, of course

[Sanibel]

Looks like we'll have to go further north than Tampico. Organization is good for rebounding. Should start drawing-in overwater winds from ahead of it over the next few hours to sustain the core.

[Ivanhater]

I think Alex will be a hurricane faster than the forecast calls for...

[wxman57]

One thing I notice is that it looks like the center will emerge into the BoC near 18.9N/91.3W. That's a good bit south of the forecast track. It also looks considerably healthier than would typically be expected for a Yucatan crossing. Won't take long at all to reorganize once back over water.

Just got the new NHC track. Alex needs to make a sharp right turn to make that 12hr forecast point.

[artist]

One thing I notice is that it looks like the center will emerge into the BoC near 18.9N/91.3W. That's a good bit south of the forecast track. It also looks considerably healthier than would typically be expected for a Yucatan crossing. Won't take long at all to reorganize once back over water.

and if it does gain strength rapidly again will that cause it to head more north?

[cycloneye]

I consider the last paragragh of discussion very important for the longer range.

ALL OF THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF ALEX OFFERS A
REMINDER TO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...PARTICULARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHERE AVERAGE
FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE 200 TO 300 MILES.

[ROCK]

I think Alex will be a hurricane faster than the forecast calls for...

I would agree with that call....the structure is to good not to bomb out....

[KWT]

One thing I notice is that it looks like the center will emerge into the BoC near 18.9N/91.3W. That's a good bit south of the forecast track. It also looks considerably healthier than would typically be expected for a Yucatan crossing. Won't take long at all to reorganize once back over water.

Just got the new NHC track. Alex needs to make a sharp right turn to make that 12hr forecast point.

Yeah I agree with most of that, it is indeed a bit south of where was expected, which means it could be bad for Tampico if that trend carries on...

Also I agree it looks good, sure convection is not amazing but the structure still looks cracking, I think 9-12hrs to get cranking up then another 6-12hrs to start to tighten up an inner core and then all bets are off...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

From the latest discussion...DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF ALEX. THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE WEAKER WITH THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. AS A RESULT...THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENTLY TAKING ALEX MORE POLEWARD. THE REMAINING MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX WILL RESULT IN A MORE
WESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD

I thought the possible northward track had to do with the eastern us trough digging down, breaking down the sub-tropical ridge leaving the door open for Alex to move north. Now this makes it sound like it has to do with how much the ridge builds in behind the trough. Makes it sound cut and dry. Ridge builds in strong=Alex west into Mexico. Ridge takes longer to build in or weaker=Alex much more north. Just sounds a lot different than the 5am discussion.

[jinftl]

Latest NHC wind probabilities - strong TS/Cat 1 is the still most likely intensity...

[KWT]

Indeed jinftl thats sounds reasonable enough, I suspect a category-1 could be more likely though given it has got decent upper conditions and the system is looking pretty well organsied despite obviously lacking major convection for now. If it doesn't get to strong over water then it'll probably end up strengthening right to landfall.

[tailgater]

Current Weather Conditions:
Campeche, Camp., Mexico
(MMCP) 19-51N 090-33W

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jun 27, 2010 - 11:02 AM EDTJun 27, 2010 - 10:02 AM CDTJun 27, 2010 - 09:02 AM MDTJun 27, 2010 - 08:02 AM PDTJun 27, 2010 - 07:02 AM ADTJun 27, 2010 - 06:02 AM HDT
2010.06.27 1502 UTC
Wind from the NE (050 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Haze
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 64 F (18 C)
Relative Humidity 65%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.59 in. Hg (1002 hPa)
ob MMCP 271502Z 05018KT 3SM HZ OVC015CB 25/18 A2959 RMK 8/3// HZY

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

still NE winds ?

[jinftl]

Interesting to watch trend of NHC wind probability forecasts for cities along the Texas and Mexico coast over the last several advisories. Northern Mexico landfall has stayed as the highest probability over the last 3 advisories (11pm last night, 5am today, 11am today). Little change in the probability of 34 kt (39 mph winds) from Freeport north since last night.

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS


1st % = 11pm, 6/26 advisory
2nd % = 5am, 6/27 advisory
3rd % = 11am, 6/27 advisory

PORT ARTHUR 34 KT 3% 4% 4%
PORT ARTHUR 50 KT 0% 0% 0%
PORT ARTHUR 64 KT 0% 0% 0%

GALVESTON 34 KT 5% 6% 7%
GALVESTON 50 KT 0% 0% 0%
GALVESTON 64 KT 0% 0% 0%

HOUSTON 34 KT 4% 4% 6%
HOUSTON 50 KT 0% 0% 0%
HOUSTON 64 KT 0% 0% 0%

FREEPORT 34 KT 7% 8% 9%
FREEPORT 50 KT 0% 0% 0%
FREEPORT 64 KT 0% 0% 0%

PORT O'CONNOR 34 KT 9% 13% 13%
PORT O'CONNOR 50 KT 0% 3% 0%
PORT O'CONNOR 64 KT 0% 0% 0%

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 KT 12% 16% 17%
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 KT 4% 4% 5%
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 KT 1% 1% 1%

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 KT 24% 36% 39%
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 KT 7% 11% 12%
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 KT 2% 4% 4%

LA PESCO MX 34 KT 33% 44% 47%
LA PESCO MX 50 KT 9% 15% 17%
LA PESCO MX 64 KT 3% 6% 6%

TAMPICO MX 34 KT 35% 45% 45%
TAMPICO MX 50 KT 12% 15% 15%
TAMPICO MX 64 KT 4% 6% 5%

VERA CRUZ MX 34 KT 22% 25% 22%
VERA CRUZ MX 50 KT 6% 6% 4%
VERA CRUZ MX 64 KT 2% 2% 1%