ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Brownsville's chances of getting 34kts+ winds have increased though over time, now nearly at 40%...

[ROCK]

KWT- do you have the chart for the 06 GFS ensembles runs? cant seem to find it....

[jinftl]

Yep, the probabilities have really gone up from Brownsville south to Tampico....that corridor seems to be in the potential bulls eye of Alex's 2nd landfall. If we start to see the wind probabilities increase north of Brownsville significantly, that would be indicative of a northern shift in the forecast. Hasn't happened yet.

Brownsville's chances of getting 34kts+ winds have increased though over time, now nearly at 40%...

[floridasun78]

this alex coming bad timing we have 4 of july weekend coming that could cause problem if go textas because alot beach goes we could see alot hotel canceling this week

[jasons2k]

Note on those progs they account for the passage of time; as the system gets closer they will go up, but not necessarily indicate a change in track.

[jinftl]

True, but as landfall becomes more certain, the probabilities in the forecast strike area will increase at a much faster rate than the areas on the fringe....look at what has happened to the %s in Tampico, Veracruz, and Brownsville over the last 3 advisories vs. what has happened in Port Arthur, Galveston, and Houston.

Key is to look not only at the trend between advisories, but what areas have the highest overall probability within each advisory. The Brownsville-Tampico-Veracruz corridor with the highest probabilities overall has been consistent, even as overall probabilities increase as landfall draws closer.

Note on those progs they account for the passage of time; as the system gets closer they will go up, but not necessarily indicate a change in track.

[Macrocane]

Two deaths have been confirmed in El Salvador because of the rains from Alex, both of them were due to drowning.

[Stormcenter]

In the last visible loop I looked at it sure looked like Alex was even "possibly" moving a tad bit south of due west. IMO

[tailgater]

Is anyone else thinking the suface COC may be a little North of the higher clouds (CDO) that we are seeing right now in the loops?
Current Weather Conditions:
Campeche, Camp., Mexico
(MMCP) 19-51N 090-33W

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Conditions at Jun 27, 2010 - 11:02 AM EDTJun 27, 2010 - 10:02 AM CDTJun 27, 2010 - 09:02 AM MDTJun 27, 2010 - 08:02 AM PDTJun 27, 2010 - 07:02 AM ADTJun 27, 2010 - 06:02 AM HDT
2010.06.27 1502 UTC
Wind from the NE (050 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Haze
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 64 F (18 C)
Relative Humidity 65%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.59 in. Hg (1002 hPa)
ob MMCP 271502Z 05018KT 3SM HZ OVC015CB 25/18 A2959 RMK 8/3// HZY

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[KWT]

In the last visible loop I looked out it sure looked like Alex was even "possibly" moving a tad bit south of due west. IMO

Nah but it is certainly not picking up much latitude still thats true, but I'm betting once it beefs up again over water it'll soon pick up latitude again...I'm pretty sure about that.

[Ivanhater]

It will be gaining latitude

[jinftl]

If anything, NHC Discussion mentions a short-term motion that is more to the west than wnw...


While the short-term motion of Alex appears almost due west...a
longer-term initial motion estimate is toward the west-northwest...
295 degrees at 10 knots....a little to the left of the previous
forecast track.

[MGC]

Looks like Alex has nearly made it across the Yucatan in good shape. I would not be surprised for the cyclone to regain tropical storm intensity shortly after it emerges into the BOC as its sat presentation looks good. I'm still a bit surprised by the lack of a more northward component. The models must be under estimating the strength of the ridge in the gulf. I think Alex will become a cat 2 hurricane prior to landfall......MGC

[ronjon]

A mass of convection is developing well north of the system south of La. The GFS model basically was first to show a piece of vorticity breaking off the main circulation to the north. I think I see this now near 25N-90W. If this continues and grows stronger, it will be a key player in the breakdown of the ridge.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[tailgater]

Thinking it is becoming unstacked (decoupling), which would mean slower redevelopment if I'm correct but I'm just a gawker here. I"ll wait for some of the Mets and more experienced guys to chime in.

[allicat1214]

A mass of convection is developing well north of the system south of La. The GFS model basically was first to show a piece of vorticity breaking off the main circulation to the north. I think I see this now near 25N-90W. If this continues and grows stronger, it will be a key player in the breakdown of the ridge.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

Being in south LA, I was noticing those showers, too!! This won't be good for the oil spill cleanup operations...

Thad Allen said he needed a 5-day advance window to move clean-up crews out of harms way....They may be moving in rainy, squally weather.

If Alex moves farther north and makes its second landfill mid-way up TX coast or even farther north, but officially misses LA, it's gonna be bad for LA/MS as its southerly winds will move oil inland.

Heaven help the Gulf coast from MX to FL!

[KWT]

Thinking it is becoming unstacked (decoupling), which would mean slower redevelopment if I'm correct but I'm just a gawker here. I"ll wait for some of the Mets and more experienced guys to chime in.

Possible, the system is slowing down though from the looks of things, need to get offshore soon otherwise the weaker steering currents could mean trouble...

Ivanhater, if anything I think the ridge may have slightly strengthened a touch comparing the images there, but then again there is enough of a weakness to lift out this system.

[tolakram]

Big loop form today.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

Looking really good, the core should be reaching the coast soon.

[ronjon]

COC is definitely opening up - not as tight as before. Overall organization has weakened considerably and it seems to have slowed down a touch.

[KWT]

Yep the system does look like its opening up, may well take a little longer then we expected only 6hrs ago to strengthen again, but it is getting close to the coast now and the slowdown maybe due to a NW jog, we shall see though.