ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HurricaneStriker]

Alex is very big compared to Darby. Just by looking at the picture, I think Alex is 7x the size of Darby. Darby also doesn't look impressive on shortwave imagery.

[KWT]

I wouldn't count on it decoupling over the Yucatan/Mexico. In fact it has a really nice structure still. I'm looking for it to intensify back to TS status by later on this evening, once it has been over water for for several hours.
Good news though is that it continues to move nearly due W it seems, so the more west it goes could mean the difference in the end for those farther upstream in Texas.

Indeed it still has a decent structure but the convection really is starting to lack, it reminds me a little of Ike when it went overland for a while when the convection pretty much totally decayed. I think your probably looking at a good 9-12hrs to sort itself out but once convection develops again its clearly going to have decent conditions aloft to strengthen again.

Also your quite right, it looks like its only just movinmg WNW right now, and barely gaining any latitude, coming out a good bit south of where the 12z models yesterday progged, at least the ones that went to Texas...

[gatorcane]

When does everybody think Alex will be back over water?

[Hurricane Andrew]

When does everybody think Alex will be back over water?

6-10PM today.

[HURAKAN]

Soon to be over water

[Hurricane Andrew]

Soon to be over water

Hey Hurakan,where do you think this will hit? (second landfall)

[KWT]

Yep going to be over water soon even if it went due west. I think that image shows you just how far this system has to go if it is to hit Texas, its really gotta lift out soon unless it moves nwar due north. T oget to where the CMC wants it to, its going to have to head near NNE...

[HurricaneStriker]

Convection with Alex looks very impressive on the east side of the storm, but the west side is almost 'convection free'. Looks like there's a big rainband cooking up in the northeast.

[cycloneye]

Convection with Alex looks very impressive on the east side of the storm, but the west side is almost 'convection free'. Looks like there's a big rainband cooking up in the northeast.

And looks like the band ahead of the center is in the water.

[ConvergenceZone]

KWT, yep, because of it's current direction, every hour that goes by is making a Texas landfall less and less likely. But then again, I don't think anyone really expects it to hit Texas anyway...Gotta keep it in the cone though for peace of mind.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I have been discussing this on accuweather.com, what caused the weakening? Shear or overlandness?

[HurricaneStriker]

I was looking at webcams from Belize to try to see if there was any damage from the landfall. See for yourself. Here's the webcam I was showing before landfall from Ambergris Caye, Belize. Any damage? Or no.

[KWT]

That big band is probably a sign of things to come over the system once it reaches the water I'd have thought...

[lester]

I have been discussing this on accuweather.com, what caused the weakening? Shear or overlandness?

It's overland. Cyclones weaken over land. (At least most storms do )

[HURAKAN]

Hey Hurakan,where do you think this will hit? (second landfall)

Unsure at this point bc computer models keep flip-flopping.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hey Hurakan,where do you think this will hit? (second landfall)

Unsure at this point bc computer models keep flip-flopping.

Yeah. In the model thread, were all waiting for the Euro.

[Ikester]

KWT, yep, because of it's current direction, every hour that goes by is making a Texas landfall less and less likely. But then again, I don't think anyone really expects it to hit Texas anyway...Gotta keep it in the cone though for peace of mind.

I think there are a fair number who would say, including me, that one would be a fool to think that Texas is in the clear.

[HURAKAN]

Watch out when Alex gets over water. The upper levels can't be more favorable

[Hurricane Andrew]

I have been discussing this on accuweather.com, what caused the weakening? Shear or overlandness?

It's overland. Cyclones weaken over land. (At least most storms do )

That's what i thought.

Ike didn't! (Pruduced 100MPH winds through ontario)

[Ivanhater]

Some of you are looking at the smaller vortex rotating around the broader center that will be taking over and it makes it think its going sw or west...look at the broader center, its gaining latitude