ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[lrak]

The model thread is saying a shift to the North.

[paintplaye]

KWT, yep, because of it's current direction, every hour that goes by is making a Texas landfall less and less likely. But then again, I don't think anyone really expects it to hit Texas anyway...Gotta keep it in the cone though for peace of mind.

I think there are a fair number who would say, including me, that one would be a fool to think that Texas is in the clear.

Look at the posts around 2am last night. There weren't that many people on because they didn't expect Texas to be clear.

[Hurricane Andrew]

This is my forecast.
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[HURAKAN]

I have been discussing this on accuweather.com, what caused the weakening? Shear or overlandness?

It's overland. Cyclones weaken over land. (At least most storms do )

That's what i thought.

Ike didn't! (Pruduced 100MPH winds through ontario)

It's unlikely, almost impossible, that Ike remained a hurricane all the way to Ontario. Impossible.

[Hurricane Andrew]

It's unlikely, almost impossible, that Ike remained a hurricane all the way to Ontario. Impossible.

It didn't/ It's Remenents produced the winds.

[HURAKAN]

It's unlikely, almost impossible, that Ike remained a hurricane all the way to Ontario. Impossible.

It didn't/ It's Remenents produced the winds.

Then it weakened!

[ConvergenceZone]

I think there are a fair number who would say, including me, that one would be a fool to think that Texas is in the clear.

That's why you have to still keep it in the cone. But I'm just saying that based on its current direction, the chances are growing less and less likely by the hour.

[Hurricane Andrew]

It's unlikely, almost impossible, that Ike remained a hurricane all the way to Ontario. Impossible.

It didn't/ It's Remenents produced the winds.

Then it weakened!

Yeah..You are right on that one.

Hurakan:1 Hurr. Andrew:0
LOL.

Anyway, if this were to hit texas, wouldn't all the debris from Ike be thrown around again. (Or dolly)

[HurricaneStriker]

I have been discussing this on accuweather.com, what caused the weakening? Shear or overlandness?

It's overland. Cyclones weaken over land. (At least most storms do )

That's what i thought.

Ike didn't! (Pruduced 100MPH winds through ontario)

Fay too. It strengthened over Florida, even producing an eye feature.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Fay too. It strengthened over Florida, even producing an eye feature.

Yes, it did.

[paintplaye]

I think there are a fair number who would say, including me, that one would be a fool to think that Texas is in the clear.

That's why you have to still keep it in the cone. But I'm just saying that based on its current direction, the chances are growing less and less likely by the hour.

That is the thing though it is moving more Northwest.

[KWT]

Hurricane Andrew, yeah I'm thinking possibly something similar to that FWIW...the models are still shifting northwards which is very interesting trend for sure.

[HurricaneStriker]

According to this track (dotted line), Alex started shifting more to the northwest while a bit off the coast of Belize, but it appears that Alex is starting to shift west...

[hurricaneCW]

I'd say the heading is around 275-280, barely gaining any latitude. I highly doubt it'll even come close to S Texas. If it were to stay on its current heading than it would not have a lot of time over water. It would also be too close to landmasses to really get going. I'm just hoping it dies out and doesn't cause any harm which is possible.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hurricane Andrew, yeah I'm thinking possibly something similar to that FWIW...the models are still shifting northwards which is very interesting trend for sure.

Exuse my lack of forum knowlage but what does FWIW mean?

[Jagno]

Hurricane Andrew, yeah I'm thinking possibly something similar to that FWIW...the models are still shifting northwards which is very interesting trend for sure.

Exuse my lack of forum knowlage but what does FWIW mean?

For
What
It's
Worth

[HurricaneStriker]

Hurricane Andrew, yeah I'm thinking possibly something similar to that FWIW...the models are still shifting northwards which is very interesting trend for sure.

Exuse my lack of forum knowlage but what does FWIW mean?

For what it's worth, or FWIW.

[KWT]

for what its worth, sorry a bit of text talk crept in there!

High resolution loop seems to suggest the center is probably an hour or two away from starting to move offshore, looks like its gaining a little more latitude again, it looks to me like Alex is stair-steping WNW...

[Hurricane Andrew]

I issue a forecast every advisory.

[jinftl]

As a rough estimate, even a turn to a due nw direction (315 deg heading...of which there is absolutely no indication such a motion has commenced) would likely keep the center south of the u.s.....if the center is at approximately 19N, 91W now, a true nw heading would put it at 25N, 97W (gain 6 deg latitude, gain 6 deg of longitude). The lat/long of Brownsville is 26N 97.5W.

In other words, a straightline turn to the nw (315 deg heading) right now would equate to a landfall about 30-60 miles south of Brownsville. Last estimate of the heading was a 295 deg...and that was generous.

According to this track (dotted line), Alex started shifting more to the northwest while a bit off the coast of Belize, but it appears that Alex is starting to shift west...