ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[jinftl]

Be interesting to see 5pm edt update. The way I see it:

- a heading of 315 deg (true northwest) would take the center just south of the U.S./Mexico border

- a heading of 320 to 325 deg would be needed for a south texas threat, a heading of 325 to 330 would be needed for a central texas threat (north through galveston bay)

- storms don't travel on straight lines....so if there is a recurvature to a more northerly track later on, the current wnw track could still not rule out a texas threat

- looking at the atmospheric dynamics (and not the model runs), what other than the ridge that has pushed the system wnw is likely to cause an abrupt recurve to the nnw or north? Just not seeing anything that would do that. If anything, there are indications that a turn back to the west could take place prior to landfall. It's not September when a trough would no doubt be coming in to scoop this system up. If anything, Alex has trended south of the forecast...case in point, Belize wasn't initially in the ts warning. Landfall was initially expected between Chetumal and Cancun. Alex has a history of a south-from-forecast bias. I don't see that changing.

Just wondering, has a storm ever weakened to a TD then re-strengthened to a hurricane? Thanks in advance.

Many many many times would be the answer to that question, even some of the biggies have done this before!

System no where near 325-335, probably about 300 at the moment and it has slowed down over the last few hours in response to the steering currents weakening...

Will be over water soon though.

[KWT]

I'm guessing the models bring through another disturbance in the upper levels whicvh helps to weaken the ridge again after briefly strengthening again in the 66-84hs range. Also I think that fact that Alex has tracked south of the forecast points does lead to more evidence to the idea it'll come in to the south of the forecast tracks...still does look like its lifted out a little bit in the last 2hrs...

Ikester, tell me about it!

[tailgater]

Winds still out of the NE at Campeche
Current Weather Conditions:
Campeche, Camp., Mexico
(MMCP) 19-51N 090-33W

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Conditions at Jun 27, 2010 - 01:40 PM EDTJun 27, 2010 - 12:40 PM CDTJun 27, 2010 - 11:40 AM MDTJun 27, 2010 - 10:40 AM PDTJun 27, 2010 - 09:40 AM ADTJun 27, 2010 - 08:40 AM HDT
2010.06.27 1740 UTC
Wind from the NE (050 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT)

[cycloneye]

In case anyone is wondering about where is the 1 PM CDT intermidiate advisory,there is not one at this time because there are no watches nor warnings posted at this time.

[Frank2]

It's oscillating (or looping) a bit, but still moving to the WNW at a steady pace:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

on the VIS it still has a well-defined circulation, so just a guess but it's pretty reasonable to say it'll be back to a TS by later tonight or tomorrow morning...

P.S. Interesting to note that per yesterday's comments (TWC) of Alex lacking an inner core, they were apparently correct, since the reports from Belize showed nothing more than gusty winds and squalls...

Ironically, the President of Belize would have been safer had he stayed for Alex - last night he was at a Miami hotel for a speech, but there was a murder (apparently unrelated) at the very same hotel, and in the middle of his speech the US Secret Service needed to rush him from the building in case the violence was meant for him...

Frank

[Raininfyr]

Ok, time to enjoy the great outdoors for about three hours until the next advisory! Still looks like a Mexico storm. Interesting to note that the storm seems to be expanding to the northeast of the "center" in the Gulf. What is causing that? And, will that have any affect on the ridge?

[tailgater]

Also the pressure at Campeche is 29.55 1000 mb, so it isn't weaking very much.

[Sanibel]

Should be back over water by this evening. And be back in business by tomorrow evening.

[KWT]

It's oscillating (or looping) a bit, but still moving to the WNW at a steady pace:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

on the VIS it still has a well-defined circulation, so just a guess but it's pretty reasonable to say it'll be back to a TS by later tonight or tomorrow morning...
Frank

Over the last 6-12hrs I'd agree a WNW motion on average has been evident but the last hour does look like its made a lurch towards the NW...of course maybe just a wobble as the systems circulation starts to enter water again.

Will be interesting to see how quickly it'll get itself back to a system with a good convective covering again.

No reason to think it can't become a hurricane, it was close to getting at the first landfall...

[littlevince]

Loop

[HURAKAN]

Circulation entering the BOC

[Ikester]

It's break time for me. I'll sit here all day if I continue on. I have things to do. See you guys in 3 hours!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



This is my newest forecast.

That new burst of convection may help get rid of that ridage. The EURO says N mexico, but GFS,NAM,BAMM,CMC,HWRF,and others say texas.

So i kept it in the middle.

[HURAKAN]

Oops!!!

[lrak]

LOL...tired already.

[tailgater]

Still dropping

Current Weather Conditions:
Campeche, Camp., Mexico
(MMCP) 19-51N 090-33W

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Conditions at Jun 27, 2010 - 02:40 PM EDTJun 27, 2010 - 01:40 PM CDTJun 27, 2010 - 12:40 PM MDTJun 27, 2010 - 11:40 AM PDTJun 27, 2010 - 10:40 AM ADTJun 27, 2010 - 09:40 AM HDT
2010.06.27 1840 UTC
Wind from the ENE (060 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT)
Visibility 6 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 64 F (18 C)
Relative Humidity 51%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.52 in. Hg (999 hPa)

[wxman57]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php ... t&id=97121

This is my newest forecast.

That new burst of convection may help get rid of that ridage. The EURO says N mexico, but GFS,NAM,BAMM,CMC,HWRF,and others say texas.

So i kept it in the middle.

I'd eliminate the NAM for tropical tracks, and the BAM models won't do well out of the deep tropics where flow patterns are changing. GFS and Canadian are better, but they haven't done well at predicting the upper air pattern. Euro should be given more weight. HWRF hung on to Florida hit while all other models were saying Mexico. It still has a lot of problems.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Pressure down one millibar

AL, 01, 2010062718, , BEST, 0, 189N, 907W, 30, 999, TD

Position at 10 AM CDT Advisory

18.7N 90.6W

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
[/b]

[HurricaneStriker]

Loop

It appears that TD Alex is following along the NHC track, but it may be west of the next forecast point when it reaches there.

[lrak]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Corpus Christi may be getting some rain in a few days.

Do we have any South South (Valley) Texas members?