ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2381 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:03 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php ... t&id=97121

This is my newest forecast.

That new burst of convection may help get rid of that ridage. The EURO says N mexico, but GFS,NAM,BAMM,CMC,HWRF,and others say texas.

So i kept it in the middle.


I'd eliminate the NAM for tropical tracks, and the BAM models won't do well out of the deep tropics where flow patterns are changing. GFS and Canadian are better, but they haven't done well at predicting the upper air pattern. Euro should be given more weight. HWRF hung on to Florida hit while all other models were saying Mexico. It still has a lot of problems.

Don;'t you mean Texas?LOL

I'll remember the NAM thing.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2382 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:07 pm

Quick take on what I see going on right now. TD Alex stair-stepping its way to the WNW, should make it right near the NHC's next plot in the BOC. Also look at this WV loop. Can definately tell the gulf ridge is weakening today as well as the low in Canada dropping down into Minnesota. A lot going on in the upper levels. Also wonder if that huge ULL east of the Bahamas will have any effect on things in a few days. What direction is that forecast to move? Looks to be moving west right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
Last edited by CYCLONE MIKE on Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2383 Postby BigA » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:07 pm

If it still has a pressure of 999 upon traversing the Yucatan, that's pretty impressive. I have no reason to doubt the Campeche barometer, though.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2384 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:08 pm

Is moving WNW at 300 degrees.

LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 271855.txt
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2385 Postby HurricaneStriker » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is moving WNW at 300 degrees.

LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 271855.txt


So it sounds like Alex is really trying to move WNW.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2386 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:13 pm

Dr. Masters


Alex may head north to Texas or Louisiana

Updated: 6:36 PM GMT on June 27, 2010

Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am run of the NOGAPS model, for example, takes Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 days period were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate the Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity.
Last edited by Ivanhater on Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#2387 Postby Kludge » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:13 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:I issue a forecast every advisory.


I'll alert the media. :roll:
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Re: Re:

#2388 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:14 pm

Kludge wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:I issue a forecast every advisory.


I'll alert the media. :roll:

VERY FUNNY!

I am accurate too!
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2389 Postby BigA » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is moving WNW at 300 degrees.

LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 271855.txt


How does the DSHIPS model have a higher intensity at 72 hours (81kt) than the SHIPS model (78kt)? I've never seen that before.
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#2390 Postby HurricaneStriker » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:18 pm

Because of Alex's large size, do you think it will swallow up Darby once it dissipates? (At this time, 5AM Tuesday, Alex is predicted to be a hurricane). :?:
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2391 Postby xironman » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:19 pm

From watching mid latitude weather the one problem with the Euro is the way it sometimes slows progression of upper air features in NA, maybe that is why the Canadian and the GFS can compete in the short range.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2392 Postby BigA » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:19 pm

HurricaneStriker wrote:Because of Alex's large size, do you think it will swallow up Darby once it dissipates? (At this time, 5AM Tuesday, Alex is predicted to be a hurricane). :?:


I think it's unlikely. Darby is pretty far away, and there is the major landmass of Mexico, with two high mountain chains between them. Even if Alex tried to swallow it up, there wouldn't be much left of it to swallow.
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#2393 Postby HurricaneStriker » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:22 pm

Winds probability table for Alex, issued at the 10:00AM CDT advisory. Alex is predicted to be its strongest as an 85mph Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday. And check the Category 4 probability: 1% for 7AM Tuesday and 7AM Wednesday. :D

Image
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2394 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:26 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Dr. Masters


Alex may head north to Texas or Louisiana

Updated: 6:36 PM GMT on June 27, 2010

Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am run of the NOGAPS model, for example, takes Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 days period were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate the Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity.


Worth posting again to let everyone read.

Have to give you credit IvanH you have been sticking to this solution for awhile and who knows what will happen come tomorrow. Are you gaining more or less confidence of the northern solution panning out since yesterday? Our OCM's around here are downplaying it big time saying no problems with Alex at all as he heads into Mexico in a couple of days :roll:
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2395 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:29 pm

Nice post from the good Doc, IVAN...I used to post over there a lot but it became a zoo...love Master's right up and he sums it up pretty good...
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2396 Postby JTE50 » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:31 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Dr. Masters


Alex may head north to Texas or Louisiana

Updated: 6:36 PM GMT on June 27, 2010

Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am run of the NOGAPS model, for example, takes Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 days period were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate the Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity.


Worth posting again to let everyone read.

Have to give you credit IvanH you have been sticking to this solution for awhile and who knows what will happen come tomorrow. Are you gaining more or less confidence of the northern solution panning out since yesterday? Our OCM's around here are downplaying it big time saying no problems with Alex at all as he heads into Mexico in a couple of days :roll:


I would say that last year's best performing models are just that - last year's. Models are tweaked from year to year. Also, last year was a very slow season - not many storms at all.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2397 Postby Comanche » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:36 pm

JB still holding the Mex/Texmex solution, or is he moving right?
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2398 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is moving WNW at 300 degrees.

LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 271855.txt


Shorter term motion is more to the NW. 6 hr motion is 305...3 hour motion is 330. Looking at the vis loop...the overall system is really moving NW. I think there is some bouncing around of the LLC...but overall...its headed NW. Also...the feature that appears to be headed more WNW is the mid-upper level feature. So its getting decoupled a little. Not a big issue since as soon as its over water the convection will stack it back up again. Looking at the hi res...it looks like it is very close to being over water again...probably only 20 miles inland now.

Who knows where its going...wish I did.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2399 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:40 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Who knows where its going...wish I did.


Can we flip a coin? There is a 50/50 chance!!!
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2400 Postby Comanche » Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:40 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Is moving WNW at 300 degrees.

LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 271855.txt


Shorter term motion is more to the NW. 6 hr motion is 305...3 hour motion is 330. Looking at the vis loop...the overall system is really moving NW. I think there is some bouncing around of the LLC...but overall...its headed NW. Also...the feature that appears to be headed more WNW is the mid-upper level feature. So its getting decoupled a little. Not a big issue since as soon as its over water the convection will stack it back up again. Looking at the hi res...it looks like it is very close to being over water again...probably only 20 miles inland now.

Who knows where its going...wish I did.



Gun to your head, you would call landfall at.........?
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