ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[KWT]

UKMO is still quite far south compared to most of the other models.

Very clear to see the difference in the models, there really is a split camp tonight in the models, with some still heading into the BoC then heading westwards or in the other models it doesn't turn to the west and carries on, if anything lifting out even more to the north as the ridge gets shunted to the east.

Real tough call it has to be said...at least there is reasonable agreement on strength between 70-80kts.

[South Texas Storms]

so when should we know where alex will land? after tonights 00z model runs?

[cycloneye]

Hard job for the NHC forecasters to figure out the two camps. They may blend between the two.

[KWT]

another north camper....at some point the NHC is going to have to blend in the EURO with some of these others....Another north shift probably next update...

I am not saying they need to abandon the EURO but weight in the GFS and some of these more northern models. You cant live and die by one model.....I learned that the hard way here recently...

Yeah the NHC may well need to lift it out, the problem is right now they may well be in no mans land because there are two distinct paths which I think the NHC are going to have to soon put thier flag onto. I still have doubts about it getting quite so far north as some of the GFS/CMC runs, I think something between TX/MW will be where the models will converge, but even that is prone to change.

At least as I said we have agreement on a hurricane, probably landfalling hurricane as well...

[Nederlander]

so when should we know where alex will land? after tonights 00z model runs?

when it lands.. sorry for the persnickety answer but the models are split.. two camps.. i advise not picking a side.. just be prepared is all.. top of your gas, have an evacuation plan if you live an evac zone.. and go get the necessities.. thats a good idea at the start of hurricane season anyway.. we may know more by tuesday though..

[deltadog03]

There is a pronouced weakness right now over the W GOM goint to depend on speed. I think just north or right near BRO would be my best call...

[Dean4Storms]

So the Euro has trended northward?

[ROCK]

Hard job for the NHC forecasters to figure out the two camps. They may blend between the two.

yeah they are going to have to give Luis. I wouldnt want to be the forecaster writing this one up....

[Dean4Storms]

Never mind, went back and saw the thread on it. If the Euro is moving northward even by a little that has to mean that it is also seeing a weakness in the ridge. If I was in southern half of Texas I would keep a close eye on this today.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

HOU


TUE/WED FORECAST HINGES ON THE TRACK OF TD ALEX. ALEX IS
BEGINNING TO EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES BACK INTO OPEN WATERS. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST FOR SE TX WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP ALEX SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. NHC OFFICIAL FOREACST AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. ONE
CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE 12Z CANADIAN/GFS SOLUTIONS BUT
THEY SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS FOR NOW. KEEPING TRACK OF THE MODEL
TRENDS THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR FUTURE FORECASTS
AND ANY CHANGES SHOULD ALEX MAKE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BUT
MAINLY 30/40 POPS INLAND FOR MID WEEK. POPS FOR NOW SLACK OFF FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS ALEX SHOULD BE WELL INLAND BY THIS TIME
BUT GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND SE TX...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES.

[South Texas Storms]

i dont see how it could hit louisiana. its moving almost due west right now and all of the models that take it to there are moving it up NNW right away. i dont think it can change directions that fast do you?

[Nederlander]

i dont see how it could hit louisiana. its moving almost due west right now and all of the models that take it to there are moving it up NNW right away. i dont think it can change directions that fast do you?

I dont expect it to, but yes I have seen stranger things happen.. if the weakness is more pronounced then Alex could have a serious curve.. but yea its going to have to start gaining some latitude for a strike that far east

[swimaster20]

i dont see how it could hit louisiana. its moving almost due west right now and all of the models that take it to there are moving it up NNW right away. i dont think it can change directions that fast do you?

Well, a little while ago, AFM commented that the most recent motion has been a fairly straightforward NW.

[SunnyThoughts]

Why couldn't we have a SIMPLE storm to start off the season with? A cut and dried, minimal ts heading out to sea...or into some area who needs the rain? But nooo, we have a storm..that will most likely strengthen ( who knows how much) in the HOT waters of the Gulf as it readies itself to emerge off land. Complicated dynamics so we don't know where its going either. I guess nobody ever said it would be easy did they? lol

[Comanche]

i dont see how it could hit louisiana. its moving almost due west right now and all of the models that take it to there are moving it up NNW right away. i dont think it can change directions that fast do you?

It has always been told to me that there is no inertia in a storm, think of it as a feather on the breeze and that it can change directions on a dime.

[ROCK]

i dont see how it could hit louisiana. its moving almost due west right now and all of the models that take it to there are moving it up NNW right away. i dont think it can change directions that fast do you?

STS need to read AFMs post a few up.....NW overall and slow...my suggestion to you is watch some of the METS on here and some really good people that have been doing this a long time...watch the model trends...keep up with the time they are released...this would be a good start to learning some of this...

[KWT]

STS, Alex looks like it has recently shifted to a NW track given the last few hours of Vis imagery.

Deltadog, I'd imagine thats not far away from the general middle point of the two camps right now. I think its a tough one though, when you've got two very differing tracks its probably wise to go down the middle for now though I think the NHC will soon start to lean to one solution or the other, esp because the real gaining of latitude is forecast by the models from now onwards.

[ROCK]

NAM out 30hrs....

[ROCK]

you can see the trof to the north.....thats the important part...

[KWT]

Hmmm a strange presentation from the NAM with it seemingly trying to possibly develop something NE of the system in that convective stuff...looks like its totally out of it, as you'd somewhat expect.