ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[ROCK]

Is moving WNW at 300 degrees.

LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 271855.txt

Shorter term motion is more to the NW. 6 hr motion is 305...3 hour motion is 330. Looking at the vis loop...the overall system is really moving NW. I think there is some bouncing around of the LLC...but overall...its headed NW. Also...the feature that appears to be headed more WNW is the mid-upper level feature. So its getting decoupled a little. Not a big issue since as soon as its over water the convection will stack it back up again. Looking at the hi res...it looks like it is very close to being over water again...probably only 20 miles inland now.

Who knows where its going...wish I did.

Gun to your head, you would call landfall at.........?

you aint going to get that from AFM. I can tell you that right now....

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[deltadog03]

Are you giving any credit to the TX solution? I am on the fence a bit with this one. Looking at the WV, that someone posted above, you can clearly see some sort of ULL over SE TX into W LA...


quote="Air Force Met"]

Is moving WNW at 300 degrees.

LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 271855.txt

Shorter term motion is more to the NW. 6 hr motion is 305...3 hour motion is 330. Looking at the vis loop...the overall system is really moving NW. I think there is some bouncing around of the LLC...but overall...its headed NW. Also...the feature that appears to be headed more WNW is the mid-upper level feature. So its getting decoupled a little. Not a big issue since as soon as its over water the convection will stack it back up again. Looking at the hi res...it looks like it is very close to being over water again...probably only 20 miles inland now.

Who knows where its going...wish I did.[/quote]

[HurricaneStriker]

Latest

Looks like Alex is ready to make 'seafall' within the next 30 minutes.

[Time_Zone]

Looks like it's about to emerge any minute now.

[Comanche]

Are you giving any credit to the TX solution? I am on the fence a bit with this one. Looking at the WV, that someone posted above, you can clearly see some sort of ULL over SE TX into W LA...


quote="Air Force Met"]

Is moving WNW at 300 degrees.

LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 271855.txt

Shorter term motion is more to the NW. 6 hr motion is 305...3 hour motion is 330. Looking at the vis loop...the overall system is really moving NW. I think there is some bouncing around of the LLC...but overall...its headed NW. Also...the feature that appears to be headed more WNW is the mid-upper level feature. So its getting decoupled a little. Not a big issue since as soon as its over water the convection will stack it back up again. Looking at the hi res...it looks like it is very close to being over water again...probably only 20 miles inland now.

Who knows where its going...wish I did.

[/quote]


Ok delta, now I pose this question (because I have no idea personally). If this takes a more northern track into central tx to louisiana coast, will the ULL you just mentioned create a shearing effect that would weaken the system?

[KWT]

Yeah the high resolution loop suggests this system probably has lifted out to the NW now depending on exactly where the center is. Either way the westerly motion it had earlier in the day has certainly ended up the time being.

Either way its very close to coming offland now, probably an hour before the center gets over water, then we have recon to find just what state its in...

[deltadog03]

no shearing effect...That should be out of there by the time alex would be close. the ridge is suppose to build back over the GOM...All about timing. It always is and thats the hard (or 1 of them) things to forecasting TC. IMO, I think that alex could intensify quite rapidly.

[Dean4Storms]

I said earlier it looked to be making more of a turn to the NW, it is for sure now. I can only think a deepening TC will try and move more poleward into the ridge. The GFS/CMC may not be out to lunch on this one.

[HurricaneStriker]

SST analysis of the Gulf of Mexico. Depending on what your personal forecasts say, Alex will be mostly traveling on 30 degree Celsius SSTs before making landfall on the Gulf Coast.

[ROCK]

no shearing effect...That should be out of there by the time alex would be close. the ridge is suppose to build back over the GOM...All about timing. It always is and thats the hard (or 1 of them) things to forecasting TC. IMO, I think that alex could intensify quite rapidly.

ULL probably create a good outflow channel....IMO...

[Dean4Storms]

Sure has become elongated in a north to south fashion. Wonder if we are not seeing it's future direction before long?


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... 4km_visir2

[HurricaneStriker]

It's hard to believe that the downpours showing up on the New Orleans radar comes from Alex, or at least most of them do.

[KWT]

I'm still thinking the June 1921 hurricane is a very good match in terms of formation location and general trend, IF the more northerly solution ends up coming off...also got upto 90mph....

Dean, yeah though it could equally be stair-stepping...but I think it is indeed obvious its on a more northerly track for now.

I see no reason why we can't get a 1/2 out of this, conditions aloft look decent enough and once it rebounds and starts to redevelop deep convection over itself probably during the ramp up towards Dmax...and if it takes the northerly track...well I think Stewart's idea of a moderate risk of a major would be well founded.

[mpic]

Am I correct that if Alex really intensifies, picks up speed, once it it hits the water, then a Texas/ LA hit probably would not happen?

[x-y-no]

Mike Watkins posted this relevant post over in tropical anaylsis regarding why the GFS and related models are breaking down the ridge enough for the trough to catch Alex.

[HurricaneStriker]

...and for those of you wondering, this is the track of the June 1921 hurricane, which formed in about the same location and the same month as Alex did.



Meanwhile, here's Alex's track as of the latest advisory.

[HURAKAN]

Am I correct that if Alex really intensifies, picks up speed, once it it hits the water, then a Texas/ LA hit probably would not happen?

The stronger Alex gets, the farther north it will travel bc it will be feeling more the trough.

[Air Force Met]

Gun to your head, you would call landfall at.........?

I've got 21 yrs of Ninpo...and 10 years of Dim Mak. If you are going to point a gun at me...you better do it from a distance...because pointing it at my head means bad things for you

Anyway...my original guess (before I changed yesterday) was 50 miles either side of BRO. I am now thinking that is not a bad guess...but right now...and I hate to say it...I haven't a clue.

[mpic]

Thanks, HURAKAN. I was hoping it would just throw him headlong into Mexico instead...not that I want anyone to get him, of course.