ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[gatorcane]

It's interesting that the NHC mentions the GFDL and HWRF do not really intensify Alex more than a TS...and those models typically overdo the intensity. I wonder what they are seeing? Also the ECMWF does not overly intensify Alex nor does the UKMET.

[dixiebreeze]

That trough is digging deeper and faster. Seems it would almost have to affect Alex. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[Time_Zone]

It's interesting that the NHC mentions the GFDL and HWRF do not really intensify Alex more than a TS...and those models typically overdo the intensity. I wonder what they are seeing? Also the ECMWF does not overly intensify Alex nor does the UKMET.

Models tend to handle intensity very poorly.

[jlauderdal]

It's interesting that the NHC mentions the GFDL and HWRF do not really intensify Alex more than a TS...and those models typically overdo the intensity. I wonder what they are seeing? Also the ECMWF does not overly intensify Alex nor does the UKMET.

Throw them out, they have been lousy on track and intensity, both models do much better with a fully developed system, this thing developed and then was right on land and is now coming off.

Euro has hit it well all the way, it obviously has a good handle on the pattern.

[bob rulz]

Everyone who says it won't have time to get its act together has a pretty short memory. History is riddled with examples of hurricanes that crossed the Yucatan, fell apart, and re-organized to attain nearly their previous intensity, sometimes cat 3 or even 4.

Also, don't forget Audrey in 1957 - it formed in the southern Gulf and was a category 4 at landfall in Texas. This was in late June, not August or September.

worth noting Audrey is a huge over-estimate from what the reports from landfall, re-anaylsis project will probably downgrade it to a 2...

I was curious so I looked it up...it seems a gust of 180mph and a pressure of 925mb was recorded offshore. If this is the case then a cat 2 would have an awfully hard time producing such gusts and it was clearly a category 4, maybe even a low-end cat 5. There were not a lot of other observations that support anything near cat 4 intensity though. I would say that a downgrade to category 3 is reasonable, but cat 2 seems like a stretch unless they decide to completely disregard that report.

Sorry if this is off-topic...just had to show that hurricanes that cross the Yucatan or form in the southern GoM can intensity to a respectable intensity even in June.

[gatorcane]

So how much longer until we see some intense convection really start to blow up near the center of Alex, now that the center is nearly over water. Anybody care to guess?

[BigA]

I'd hazard late this evening. It seems to take these storms several hours to get their "sea legs" again. Just a guess though.

So how much longer until we see some intense convection really start to blow up near the center of Alex, now that the center is nearly over water. Anybody care to guess?

[Weatherfreak000]

The recent motion of Alex has been alarming...looks almost NNW. Definitely not what I expected seeing it emerging from the GOM.

[HurricaneStriker]

So how much longer until we see some intense convection really start to blow up near the center of Alex, now that the center is nearly over water. Anybody care to guess?

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Maybe around 6-12 hours. First, Alex needs to get his act together. Also, the SSTs offshore the Yucatan are a tad bit colder than the rest of the Gulf, so for Alex to really blow up would be past that.

[ozonepete]

That trough is digging deeper and faster. Seems it would almost have to affect Alex. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

Sure seems like it to me...

[HurricaneStriker]

So who here thinks rapid intensification with Alex is possible and we may be seeing a Category 2 or a Major in the next few days?

[ROCK]

no hes gaining lat now...as per some of the models....he will bump up against the ridge soon enough...

[ozonepete]

The recent motion of Alex has been alarming...looks almost NNW. Definitely not what I expected seeing it emerging from the GOM.

Could be just because it's over land where there are odd effects from friction. But it could be responding to that trough as well. Either way, I definitely see it too.

[chzzdekr81]

Here's what I don't understand. I was checking out the spaghetti models at StormPulse.Com and almost all of the models showed Alex going north into the Texas coast. However, the track still shows Alex making its second landfall in Mexico. What's up with that?

[Brent]

So who here thinks rapid intensification with Alex is possible and we may be seeing a Category 2 or a Major in the next few days?

Definitely significant strengthening. Major is certainly possible IMO.

[HurricaneStriker]

As Alex begins to leave the Yucatan behind its tracks, Alex is already showing signs of strengthening near the core.

[ROCK]

I dont see any major convection over the core just yet....might take a few hours....plus his southern inflow is cut off right now...needs to pull away some more to get it re-established.

[Ikester]

The fact that Alex still has a tight core region is not good news for re-intensification. We could be talking about a hurricane tomorrow night. I shocked at the NW to almost NNW motion. While I'm not perplexed by it, as I always believed the ridge was being overdone, it's just I subconsciously didn't expect it to happen and now it has. Lets see if it continues. The trend is your friend! I think I may go buy gas and batteries tomorrow...

[Cape Verde]

The change in models must have been noticed by the Coast Guard by now. They HAD planned to make everyone leave the oil spill site 120 hours before the onset of gale force winds. With the models moving more and more toward upper Texas, what do they do, and when do they do it?

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing