ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

It's encouraging that the parallel GFS run is inland near or just south of Brownsville at 108 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_108l.gif

Looks like exactly the same spot more or less as Dolly hit in 2008...

Still a possible US threat looking at that run, any decent strength system will probably have at least strong TS winds into that region and if the system is at the stronger end of what is possible then probably would bring hurricane winds into play as well.

[Ivanhater]

It's encouraging that the parallel GFS run is inland near or just south of Brownsville at 108 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_108l.gif

It would seem, except yesterday it was showing mid Mexico coast, so even the Para has shifted north. Regular GFS still showing upper Texas...

[gatorcane]

It's encouraging that the parallel GFS run is inland near or just south of Brownsville at 108 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_108l.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes it does. How many times have I seen the GFS join the ECMWF? At least two of the most important global models say south of the United States at this point, granted Southern Texas is not off the hook by any means but Houston/Galveston solution seems rather far-fetched if you ask me. Would be shocked if the ECMWF/UKMET and new GFS miss the forecast that bad at this point.

[Evil Jeremy]

Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 day forecast range were the GFS and the Canadian

..... What? Really? I am not doubting Jeff, but wow, I didn't think it improved that much from the popcorn entertainment it was previously. Or is it still?

[baitism]

Convection is starting to refire around the center. I expect it will be a TS again when Alex sees the morning sun again.

[hurricanefloyd5]

wow look at this

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[gatorcane]

It's encouraging that the parallel GFS run is inland near or just south of Brownsville at 108 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_108l.gif

It would seem, except yesterday it was showing mid Mexico coast, so even the Para has shifted north. Regular GFS still showing upper Texas...

Ivanhater the old GFS is HIGHLY suspect at this point. Have you read MWatkins post? It does NOT handle heat very well and wants to develop a low in the Northern GOM that carves out more of a weakness. Just don't see that happening.

Please read:

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=108361

[funster]

It's encouraging that the parallel GFS run is inland near or just south of Brownsville at 108 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_108l.gif

Unless you live in Brownsville and end up on the dirty side of the storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

This part by Master's is interesting,

A longer time spent over water will give Alex more of a chance to strengthen, and it is possible Alex could intensify into a major hurricane if landfall is delayed until Thursday or Friday. However, Alex's intensification may be limited the farther north it gets, as water vapor satellite images show plenty of dry air over Texas that might interfere with development. Wind shear might also be an issue for Alex if it pushes far enough north, and a slow-moving storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are plenty of roadblocks that make this only a 10% probability in my estimation.

[xironman]

Canadian, bad at cyclogenesis not so bad on track.

[Nederlander]

It's encouraging that the parallel GFS run is inland near or just south of Brownsville at 108 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_108l.gif

It would seem, except yesterday it was showing mid Mexico coast, so even the Para has shifted north. Regular GFS still showing upper Texas...

Thats the thing to remember Ivan.. I remember this happening with Rita.. First corpus, then freeport, then galveston, and finally sabine pass.. I tend to recall that statistic showing that 80% of gulf storms miss their projected landfall to the east.. im thinking this is going to fall somewhere between CC and Brownsville..


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing

[Ivanhater]

It's encouraging that the parallel GFS run is inland near or just south of Brownsville at 108 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_108l.gif

It would seem, except yesterday it was showing mid Mexico coast, so even the Para has shifted north. Regular GFS still showing upper Texas...

Ivanhater the old GFS is HIGHLY suspect at this point. Have you read MWatkins post? It does NOT handle heat very well and wants to develop a low in the Northern GOM that carves out more of a weakness. Just don't see that happening.

Please read:

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=108361

Well Canadian is showing the same thing along with the HWRF....ALL models have been shifting north...just a wait and see at this point. I tell you no one is confident in any forecast right now for sure and if someone tells you that, they are lying....NHC is quite clear in their uncertainty...

[gatorcane]

I agree there have been some shifts northward, but no more northward than S Texas which has always been a possible target for this system in my opinion, either Northern Mexico or Southern Texas.

[Nederlander]

wow look at this

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

This has been pretty consistent of the GFS ensemble the past couple of days.. no surprises there

[cycloneye]

Definitly,convection is increasing.

[Swimdude]

It's encouraging that the parallel GFS run is inland near or just south of Brownsville at 108 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_108l.gif

It would seem, except yesterday it was showing mid Mexico coast, so even the Para has shifted north. Regular GFS still showing upper Texas...

Thats the thing to remember Ivan.. I remember this happening with Rita.. First corpus, then freeport, then galveston, and finally sabine pass.. I tend to recall that statistic showing that 80% of gulf storms miss their projected landfall to the east.. im thinking this is going to fall somewhere between CC and Brownsville..


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Recall though that Rita was many hundred miles North of where Alex is....

[xironman]

Some IR is nice here to show the building convection since we all know where the center is.

[Nederlander]

Recall though that Rita was many hundred miles North of where Alex is....

Agreed.. it was a much different setup as well.. my point is, 4 or 5 days out, it always seems like the projected landfall gets missed.. I remember evacuating for rita 3 days before and it was supposed to be going to Houston ( I was in Beaumont-Port Arthur).. While I am not jumping on to the GFS (it seems a bit too east), I dont think its unreasonable to suggest that the euro is overdoing the ridge..

[Ikester]

I see a lot of towers going up near the core. Alex is breathing once more...