ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

Now down to 999 mbs and still has not reached the center.

[KWT]

Hmmm very interesting to see the pressure that low, could mean either the system is stronger than expected in terms of pressure or the LLC is decoupled north of where was expected. Should know one or the other soon...

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83, how much is the % of reduction of the winds that we look for?

925mb = 75% reduction. Need a 46 kt FL wind to support TS Alex on that basis.

[KWT]

I'm not sure we'll get that so close to after it has emerged from land, the system looks good though so I don't think we will be far off.

[cycloneye]

Pressure still falling (998 mbs)

[KWT]

Recon maybe just a tiny bit west of the center of the system judging by the slight wind veer from the last set of reports, still the next set should have it through the center.

[cycloneye]

This is bombing!! 992 mbs.

[KWT]

Wow that is just unreal, 992mbs suggests a very low background pressure indeed...

[somethingfunny]

Holy smokes, 992mb?????

This must have been much stronger than 996mb when it made landfall.

[brunota2003]

it could of been 996 at landfall, and the pressure dropped a few more mbs...but it is hard to say. I wouldnt call it "bombing", this is simply showing what a lack of observations does for the forecasts.

[KWT]

Yeah it was down to 996mbs before landfall and assuming it was still strengthening could have gone as low as say 992-993mbs...but even then thats implying no pressure rises at all, which would be exceptional...

Probably strengthened inland a little in terms of pressure.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure is 991 mbs as it moved thru center.

[CrazyC83]

Given the data, 35 kt seems like a good intensity estimate as a blend of the FL (supports 30 kt) and SFMR (supports 40 kt).

[brunota2003]

I personally think the NHC will go with TS at 11 pm. With a pressure of 991mb (assuming it is accurate, and even though the background pressure is pretty low), convection redeveloping, and warm SSTs to move over, even if Recon doesnt find any winds to support TS (though SFMR did say 41.6 mph, but that is suspect I would think, because of shallower water near the coast), it could be assumed the strongest winds were not sampled (especially if convection keeps developing).

[CrazyC83]

Lots of SFMR's in the high 30s in several quadrants. I'd at least go with 35 kt, especially considering the really low pressure (which would normally support about 60 kt).

[brunota2003]

Yeah...the only reason it isnt stronger is the lack of convection. Once that convection redevelops, I expect that the winds will catch up in a hurry (maybe not to 60kts, because of the low background pressures).

[KWT]

Yeah I'd personally go with 35kts as well simply because of the surface reports and the low pressure...

[cycloneye]

I also go with the blend of 35kts.

[cycloneye]

Going for a second pass soon.

[brunota2003]

They just made the turn toward the NE.